Crop Progress, Topsoil Moisture, PMI, Weather & China 8/1/22
- Wright Team
- Aug 2, 2022
- 2 min read
Very few analysts dared predict the crop ratings released by USDA this afternoon, but Benson-Quinn analysts expected a slight downgrade. Corn percentage in the top two categhories was steady and beans improved 1%.
The corn in Illinois and Indiana improved 3%, but Nebraska was down 3% and Iowa was down 4%. That sounds bullish for corn. The story was pretty much the same for beans.
The numbers:
In hind sight, today’s trading was dominated by macro-economic factors rather than weather. Even though December corn settled down 9¼ cents today, it did settle 12½ cents above the low. That is a very bullish indicator. The soybean weakness was maybe a little more rain and whole lot of gloom and doom in China. Tonight’s National Weather Service 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day forecast predicts way above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation for all of the Corn Belt. Same as the past 10+ days. The mid-day GFS weather model run was warmer and drier than the overnight run. The EU model continues to offer a better chance of rain. Nancy Pelosi continues to prepare to visit Taiwan which really smacks the face of Communist China; Communist China imports about 100 million mt of soybeans every year. It is not good to irritate your number one soybean buyer in the world market place. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of the people who buy the goods for their manufacturing employer. The survey is taken at the end of every month. China’s PMI today was 49, meaning a slight slow-down in business activity because the purchasing managers say they will buy 1% less products in August than they bought in July to use in their businesses. It is not good when the world's number one bean buyer is looking a possible economic reset. So, crude oil was sharply lower today because China buys more crude oil than anyone. As crude oil declines, so does the bio fuels stock and the export outlook. EU cut its corn production estimate by 8% and increased corn imports. It is more than a little hot and dry over there. Weekly top soil moisture content:
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