Thanks to those of you who took the time to respond to our request for feedback on the Tech Guy.
After the big gains the past eight trading days, these CBOT markets have been due for a big correction every day this week. Yesterday morning, it looked like that correction was about kick-in as prices were smartly lower just ahead of a three-day weekend. But, it was not to be.
Some say Wednesday’s higher settlements were due to planting delays caused by wet weather in the Eastern Corn Belt and heavy snow in the Upper Midwest. Nope, not true. The corn market has proven year after year it does not care about planting delays until the middle of May. The low corn price for the year in 2019, the wet, very wet year, was on May 13th. That date is more than four weeks away. May corn matched a 14-year low at $3.01 on April 21st 2020.
The market knows most farmers can plant all their corn in 4.6 days.
The folks in the Upper Midwest have received the better part of two feet of snow the past 36 hours and they are quite happy to plant a couple weeks later in exchange for the moisture. Any market person who thinks corn and beans rallied because of late planting is reaching for an excuse.
CBOT prices were higher Wednesday because of inflation hedging, because Putin said Russia will continue the war in Ukraine until he gets what he wants and more technical buying. There is probably not one technical analysis system that says anything other than “BUY!” except yesterday’s Bullish Consensus reports with 74% and 82% of respondents bullish corn and 66% and 71% of respondents are bullish soybeans. Anything over 70% is overbought and is likely to soon run out of buyers. As you know, markets drop like a rock without buyers. If you have not read it, read the Joe Kennedy Story at: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/the-joe-kennedy-story
Argentina’s truckers are on strike again, but this time it will hurt. Harvest has started and trucks move the soybeans to the crushers. Argentina exports more soybean meal and soy oil than any country in the world. The crush plant capacity currently is 42% idle and it will spike higher every day the truckers do not truck.
Bird flu news has been rather subdued, but we have had several folks tell us infections continue to spread slowly. Also, there are a lot of empty hog barns in Western Iowa due parvo-virus infections this past fall and winter.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is scheduled to release its monthly crush report on Friday, but maybe a day early this month (Good Friday). The trade expects 181.991 million bushels of beans were crushed in March. The range of estimates is 179.2 to 186.0 million.