BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The numbers we reported to you yesterday afternoon compared to what was expected were friendly for corn and negative for soybeans. The wheat numbers were also friendly as the US wheat carryover was 40 million bushels less than expected, 29 million bushels less than last month and peeled 7 days’ worth of use off the carryout. Despite all that, the USDA lowered the national average price expected to be paid to farmers for 2022 wheat by a whopping $1.25 to $9.25 a bus

Highlights The USDA will issue its monthly Crop Production and Supply and Demand (S&D) Reports today at 10 AM Mountain Time. Roger expects neutral to friendly numbers. If there is a sell-off as a result of the numbers, it will be met with high volume buying because users know supplies are tight. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced a sale of 103,400 mt of new crop soymeal to Mexico. The USDA’s average spot price for soybean meal in Illinois closed at $605.00 per short ton T

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 196,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Yesterday morning the government reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the measure of inflation at the retail level) was 8.5%, down from June’s 9.1%. The market expected 8.7%. Crude oil recovered its losses yesterday afternoon to settle higher on the news that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory had declined 5.3 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks were do

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 133,000 mts of new crop corn to China DTN’s Digital Yield Tour says corn will yield at 167.2 bushels; USDA is at 177.0 and the average estimate for Friday’s USDA production report is 175.9 bushels. DTN Tour see beans at 48.9 bushels; USDA’s at 51.5, average estimate is 51.1 bushels. The first shipload of grain from Ukraine since February arrived in Lebanon yesterday. It was rejected and not allowed to unload. Typi

Highlights The USDA will release its satellite generated Crop Report and resulting S&D on Friday at 11:00am CT. The FSA will release their Crop Acreage report the same day, with our first look at their estimate of Prevent Plant acres. This will include a resurvey of North Dakota actual planted acres. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 105,000 mts of new crop corn to Italy 120,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown

Pay Attention to Markets, Decide and Take Action In the days before cell phone, Roger was told by farmers at least a hundred times, “I was side dressing corn (or spraying or cultivating a crop) as I listened to the farm reports on the radio and told myself I needed to do some pricing, but I will finish side dressing in a few days and I will do it then. Every dag-gone year, by the time I got around to pricing, the price would be 30 or so cents lower, so I did not price anythin

Time to Make Decisions About Fall Delivery Basis If you know you will have to deliver corn or beans during harvest, you need to make the decision this week whether to set the basis now for fall delivery or roll the dice. Well, actually, if you do not set the fall delivery basis, that decision has better odds of being correct than rolling the dice. First of all, why is this week the week to decide on fall delivery basis? By this week, you have a pretty good idea of what kind

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations China is going to punish the US for Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan by suspending eight “cooperation mechanisms”: Dialogue with the US at the level of regional military commands. Working meetings with representatives of the Ministry of Defense. Meetings with US representatives under the Maritime Security Mechanism. Negotiat

Highlights Two years ago today, December 2020 corn made its contract low at $3.20. It traded to $4.30 on November 30, 2020. That was the contract high. The USDA reported yesterday morning a sale of 135,000 mt of new crop soybean meal & cake to Poland. There were no deliveries assigned on August beans or oil, but 35 lots of bean meal were assigned and went to "strong hands". The oldest long positions are: Meal 18 July 2022 Oil 8 July 2022 Beans 24 February 2022

Highlights Nancy Pelosi’s plane arrived in Taiwan yesterday mid-morning just before beans tested their low for the day. The whole world was watching because China said they would retaliate militarily if she set foot in Taiwan. Apparently, the soybean and crude oil market were relieved her plane did not get blown out of the sky before its arrival as prices rallied after her plane landed, but then prices sunk back to near the lows of the day on the close. She has to get out of

Highlights It is bullish for the price outlook when deliveries are light or non-existent on a futures contract. The were no bean complex deliveries assigned on August futures last evening. The oldest long dates are: Meal: 23 December 2020 Oil: 29 June 2022 Beans: 24 February 2022 Bulgarian farmers are blocking roads to protest against cheap grain imports from Ukraine. All the roads the grain trucks from Ukraine travel are blocked. Imagine being a hungry person needed that che

Highlights Olexii Vadatursky revived grain export and river bulk transport industries for Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. He supported medics amid the recent pandemic. Olexii and his wife were killed Sunday morning by a targeted Russian missile strike while sleeping in their home in the port city Mykolaiv. All grain people in Eastern Europe had great respect for Olexii as he made grain farming in Ukraine profitable again for the first time since 1914.

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Highlights Russia admitted it fired the missiles into the harbor at Odessa, but they say the target was military infrastructure and that the grain deal still stands. Yesterday afternoon, a UN spokesperson said all parties to the Ukraine Black Sea export deal have confirmed they are still on board even after the missile attack. Ukraine hopes to get the first vessel load of grain on the water this week from Chornomorsk, just south of Odessa. Cargill and Continental Grain Com

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