Highlights, Economy, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 8/2/22

Wright Team
Aug 2, 2022
2 min read

Highlights

It is bullish for the price outlook when deliveries are light or non-existent on a futures contract. The were no bean complex deliveries assigned on August futures last evening. The oldest long dates are:

Meal: 23 December 2020
Oil: 29 June 2022
Beans: 24 February 2022

Bulgarian farmers are blocking roads to protest against cheap grain imports from Ukraine. All the roads the grain trucks from Ukraine travel are blocked. Imagine being a hungry person needed that cheap grain and read about this protest.

Now that Senator Manchin has agreed to support the latest government giveaway, The Inflation Reduction Act, all that money will have to be printed and most of it will go to people who did not work to earn it. The printing and people getting it without producing anything to earn are both pure inflation drivers. The US inflation fire will have several gallons of gasoline poured on it.

How bad can inflation get? Argentina increased interest rates Monday another 800 bps (8%) to 60%, highest since 2019, but still below the 64% inflation rate.

Every time soybean prices take a hard hit, someone starts talking about China’s banking and bad loan problems. There is no question they have a banking problem, but it has been that way 30+ years. So does the US have the same banking problem. Roger is more convinced today than yesterday that the weakness in soybeans is primarily due to recession talk rather than improving weather. The Arkansas Waterways Commission has awarded a grant of $535,000 to the Helena Harbor, West Helena, Arkansas to support the Helm Fertilizer Terminal expansion at the harbor. The grant will fund a staging lane for 18-wheeler traffic, as well as provide for critical road improvements that enable safer, more efficient operations at Helena Harbor. Work is expected to begin in 90 days. For the week of July 26, 2022, Illinois River barge freight rate was 1% lower than the previous week, 63% higher than a year ago and 17% higher than the 3-year average. As transportation costs go up, the basis weakens in the surplus grain producing areas.

The map of 24 hour ending yesterday morning:

Export Inspections Tracker

Market Data

This morning:

Crude oil is at $93.78, down $0.11

The dollar index is at 105.50, up 0.05

December palm oil is at 3,936 MYR, down 207. The contract high was made April, 29th at 6,384 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $92.94, down $1.12 per cwt. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

December natural gas is at $8.306, down 0.123. The contract high was made June, 8th at $9.675. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

December ULSD is at $3.2978 per gallon, down 0.0111. The contract high was made June, 17th at $4.0719. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.

September Dow Futures is at 32,665, down 102. The lifetime high is 36,832 on January 5th, 2022.

Rain Days Update

The Western Corn Belt has 1 more rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 1 more rain daysthan yesterday.

The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/