BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Tidbits Stock markets around the world kick-off today with the global macro and market landscape very different from how it looked on Friday morning thanks to a set of U.S. employment figures that not even the most bullish of forecasters expected. The immediate shift in U.S. interest rate futures markets indicate a 50-basis point rate (one-half percent) cut next month is now completely off the table. The markets signal a quarter-point cut at each of the next two Federal Ope

Tidbits Soft red winter wheat made a key reversal yesterday, which occurs when the price of a stock or commodity makes a new low and closes higher than the previous day’s high. It can also be made on weekly charts and a key reversal on a weekly chart is considered a more reliable trend change indicator. A key reversal was a respected technical indicator of trend change until 2023 and 2024. Corn, wheat, and beans have had multiple key reversals the past 14 months. But someda

Tidbits Last night’s 6 to 10 day NOAA weather forecast is calling for above and much above normal temperatures in the Corn Belt spreading east on the 8 to 14 day forecast. Both forecasts are predicting above normal rainfall for the Corn Belt with much above normal rainfall in the Western Corn Belt. The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in February was rising by the fastest rate in just over a year. The United States economy continues to outperfor

Highlights The number of CBOT contracts that will be assigned today for delivery tomorrow were announced last evening. If you want price to go higher, you want to see very few to no deliveries, but nothing is 100% in this business. Spring Wheat 591 contracts to 20 Feb 2024 KC Wheat 56 to 13 Feb 2024 Chi Wheat 484 to 22 Feb 2024 Soybeans 702 to 26 Feb 2024, pretty “strong hands” Soy Meal1 to 18 Aug 2023 Soy Oil 271 to 1 Feb 2024, 234 contracts went to “strong hands”

Highlights Yesterday morning, old crop corn and beans did make new lows for 2024, extending the down trend since the spring 21 months ago. New crop corn (Dec) and beans (Nov) did not make new lows. March corn and March soybeans made key reversals yesterday, which is a respected technical trend indicator. A key reversal occurs when a commodity (or stock) makes a new low, but the settlement price is higher than the previous day’s high. Before you mortgage your house and buy c

Highlights The Ukrainian army has launched a missile strike on the port of Feodosia in Crimea and claims to have destroyed a Russian landing ship, but reliable details of the aftermath, including casualties, have yet to emerge. This came just after Russia claimed full control of the village of Maryinka, an important strategic point for which battles have been fought since the spring of 2022. Between midnight last Tuesday and midnight yesterday, Rondonópolis received a total

Highlights Russian forces continue to hit port infrastructure and damaged a cargo terminal in Odessa. Over the last 10 days, 26 port facilities have been hit in Ukraine. It came to our attention yesterday midday that troubled PacWest Bank was going to be absorbed by the Banc of California. The deal was done two days before it became common knowledge. Here is the press release from the 25th which we did not see nor did anyone we know talk or write about it: "The Banc of Calif

Highlights A daily “key reversal” higher is created when a price makes a new low for the move and then closes higher than the previous day’s high. It is a very bullish technical indicator. If the day’s opening trade price is higher than the previous day’s settlement before making the new low that day, it is even more bullish. A weekly “key reversal” higher is created when a price makes a new low for the move and then closes higher than the previous week’s high. If the week’s

Highlights Yesterday was an economic gloom and doom day made even more negative because it might rain in Kansas. The G7 and several market analysts, according to the news media, said the Ukraine grain corridor deal will be renewed. Russia's Lavrov said again the sanction issues are not being resolved and the deal will not be renewed. The market seemed to be calling his bluff. Export deal or not, new crop Ukrainian wheat production is expected to fall nearly 40% with exports

Tidbits The chief executive officer of failed Silicon Valley Bank, Greg Becker, was on the Board of Directors for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Doesn’t that warm the cockles of your heart to know such people are running the Federal Reserve? The fertilizer supply for this spring planting in Ukraine is ~550,000 mts, which is 20% as much fertilizer as a year ago for the world’s leading sun oil exporter (3rd most used veg oil), 4th largest corn exporter, and 5th lar

Highlights After the settlement Wednesday, Alan Bonifas, our long-term technical consultant and our second full-service consultant who hit dead-on the lows and highs from 2019 to 2022, said his long term technical outlook shifted from a high this spring and a low into fall to either: A high in the spring and low in the late summer or fall (like 2021 and 2022) or A low in spring and high in the late summer or fall (like 2019 and 2020). Alan thought the July 22, 2022 lows o

Highlights Early Monday news was China may announce ten COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, after three years of zero-tolerance measures; that news had crude oil, grains, soybeans higher yesterday morning. Just before the price dropped late yesterday morning, the news was released that, effective today, China would cut retail gasoline and diesel prices by about $62.51 per mt to support the economy. China’s crude refineries were ordered to maintain production and f

Highlights Two years ago today, December 2020 corn made its contract low at $3.20. It traded to $4.30 on November 30, 2020. That was the contract high. The USDA reported yesterday morning a sale of 135,000 mt of new crop soybean meal & cake to Poland. There were no deliveries assigned on August beans or oil, but 35 lots of bean meal were assigned and went to "strong hands". The oldest long positions are: Meal 18 July 2022 Oil 8 July 2022 Beans 24 February 2022

Highlights

July Corn 5 to 7 Higher July Wheat 1 to 2 Lower July Soybeans 1 to 2 Higher I was incorrect about last...

July Wheat closed the intraday gap from Monday morning and then tested the low of the same day - Apr 25 on Friday afternoon. It appeared...

Highlights Novooleksiyivka is a town in the Kherson region of Southeast Ukraine now occupied by Russians. The local grain elevator’s...

Grain Complex Thursday's trade further showed the old crop corn contracts are strengthening on the new crop. This inversion (nearby...

May Wheat: Steady to 1 higher May Corn: Stedy to 1 higher May Beans: 1 to 3 lower Tech Guy’s Comments: Corn and beans continued to show...