BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts record large global grain production and record large global consumption for the 2024-25 marketing year. More importantly, world carryovers (aka ending stocks) are projected at a 10-year low.   IGC’s report on Wednesday listed total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output at 2.315 billion mts and consumption at 2.325 billion mts with the carryover down to 581 million mts, the lowest since 2014-15.   The records are fo

Question from a client, received 8:01 PM Thursday 1 August 2024: "Hey Roger,   We just got a quick localized, well-needed 1 inch of rain so things are much better than yesterday's hot dry windy conditions.   I am not a conspiracy theorist by no means with what is and has been happening in Europe with the gov't trying to regulate and put farmers out of business and what we have seen in the grain market and what you wrote today, "Altogether, yesterday, crude oil was sharply hig

Highlights StoneX predicts the US corn will yield 182.3 (USDA 181) and beans 52.6 (USDA 52). The US soybean crush in June was 183.7 million bushels, 1.1 million less than the market expected, but 8.7 million bushels more than a year ago.      The corn crush was 495 million bushels with 442 million bushels for ethanol, up slightly from a year ago. Canola crush was 198,005 tons, well above the 158,305 tons crushed a year ago.   Cottonseed once refined oil production was 30.1 mi

Highlights Fears that China’s economy will falter and substantially reduce demand for imports of everything has been a consistent bearish theme since 2020 and the intensity increased in 2024. The real estate developers’ crushing debt has been milked for all its worth by everyone who wants grain prices to go down.   One of the two biggest developers, Evergrande, filed bankruptcy in 2023 in the USA and a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande assets to be liquidated 6 months ago. T

Highlights Early Friday morning CrowdStrike deployed a content update to its Falcon Sensor agents, which triggered a system-level error that prevented Windows operating systems from booting properly. This resulted in a "Blue Screen of Death" or BSOD error on many Windows systems across various sectors, including banking, healthcare, government, and critical infrastructure. There is no indication of a hack; somebody simply made a mistake.     In premarket trading Friday mornin

Highlights Bloomberg reported what may go down as the most spectacular IT meltdown the world has ever seen, which occurred yesterday, was caused by a botched software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The update crashed countless Microsoft Windows computer systems all over the world, idling airlines, banks, hospitals and even the London Stock Exchange. For several hours, bankers in Hong Kong, doctors in the UK, and emergency personnel in New Hampshire found themselv

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 510,000 mts of new crop soybeans and 150,000 mts of new crop soybean cake and meal to the unknown. The Northern Plains over the next 2-3 weeks are going from too wet and too cool to maybe too hot and too dry. NOAA weather outlook for August has higher than normal temperature and normal precipitation expected, it is about the same idea for Aug-Sept-Oct period:

Highlights Dr. Cordonnier left his yield and production estimates unchanged for US corn and beans.   French Ag ministry first production estimate of the year say's France's wheat production will be 15% less than a year ago due to poor weather.   Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress yesterday the U.S. is "no longer an overheated economy" as the job market has cooled and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis.   Powell told the

Q&A Received 3 PM Central Wednesday 13 June 2024: If we are “lucky” enough to have old crop corn and beans, should we roll to August now? Beans inverted, so still roll? Instead of waiting till the end of month or sell and go futures or options. Any news on China weather? Thanks Russ   Good morning, Russ, most merchandisers require July basis contracts to be cashed out or rolled before the close of business on June 27th, the last trading day before first notice day. A lot can

Q&A Question from from Travis: As we move forward with this current crop having very good crop ratings… when would you suggest we get rid of old crop?   It seems to me nothing moves the market higher, but we can always go lower. I guess I do not understand the big swings in markets from day to day. It makes no sense to me they can find a way to go lower, but struggle immensely to sustain higher prices??   Is there going to be any sort of weather scare to move it? I fear the m

Tidbits Diesel price fell for 8 straight weeks and has declined 33.5 cents per gallon since April 8. For the week ending June 3, the U.S. average diesel fuel price was $3.726 per gallon, 7¢ below the same week last year. On June 5th we recommended you to consider locking-in diesel some, if not all of your fall needs. Purdue University issues their Crop Cost & Return Guide mid-January every year, we shared with you 2024 budgets in February. While it’s most important to know yo

Highlights Yesterday, OPEC+ extended its “voluntary” production cuts through 2025 with the exception of the UAE. Thus, the UAE will increase production by 300,000 barrels per day from January 2025 and all OPEC+ quota will be 39.725 million barrels per day. The increase will be carried out in stages, from January 2025 and until the end of September 2025.   Multiple countries in Asia will report today their manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for the continent's bigge

Highlights USDA changes for South America: Argentina’s bean crop unchanged at 50 million mts. Brazil’s bean crop was reduced by 1 million mts to 154, about 6 to 7 million higher than most estimates. Reduced Argentina’s corn crop 2 million mts to 53, which is 6 to 10 million mts above most estimates. Reduced Brazil’s corn crop by 2 million mts to 122 million mts, 9 million mts above CONAB, which will give their May S&D numbers on Monday. Increased Ukraine’s 2023 corn crop by 1

Tidbits Odessa is the largest grain handling port on the Black Sea. It is in Southeast Ukraine. A Russian ballistic missile attack struck a residential area in Odessa on Friday, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 70.   According to the UN, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, just over 10,000 civilians have been killed in 2 years, including 3,093 women and 587 children.   At the same time, during the 5 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, more than

Tidbits Two Ukrainian attack drones struck the largest oil refinery in southern Russia yesterday. Local authorities in Russia said that a fire had been extinguished at the Volgograd refinery following a drone attack. Oil producer Lukoil said the plant was working as normal.   Kory Melby is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 24 years ago and became a consultant for everything related to agriculture. Roger first met Kory in February 2003 and has come to re

Highlights Late yesterday US time, the US launched airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq as the Mideast war continues to expand. The US struck 85 targets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force and affiliated groups. “Our response began today,” Biden said in a statement, “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”   It was widely rumored at midday Friday that a substantial military strike would be launched within hours.

Q&A: Marketing "Hi Roger, I’m a reader of your posts every morning, but can’t seem to get past that most of your posts are bullish, either about weather, war, SAF, drought all over the world, but all we see is sideways or downward movement of the markets. I like to have a positive attitude also, but we missed out on some decent prices to sell our 2023 crop earlier this year because of what your recommendations and posts were saying, I know you can’t hit the highs all the time

Tidbits Governor of Brazil’s state of Rondônia (NW of Mato Grosso) issued a decree Sunday declaring a state of emergency due to the  worst drought the State of Rondônia has ever experienced as crops of coffee, corn, soybeans, beans and rice are being drastically affected.   Diego Meurer of Northern Rondônia, in the Amazon region, has never experienced this situation, soybeans ready to harvest with a yield of 8 bags per hectare (7.1 bu per acre), 80% less production compared t

Highlights Mexico is the leading export destination for US corn, receiving from 21% to 32% of US corn exported annually in recent years. US corn export sales to Mexico are at a near record pace.   There are six railroad border crossings from the USA to Mexico. Two of them have been closed since 8 AM Monday as the Biden Administration pulled border personnel working the crossings to assist with the illegals crossing in the USA. However, others say the two border crossing point

Highlights Eduardo Vanin 29 November 2023: "Brazilian corn is getting really expensive. Tenders, purchase tenders, went out to South Korea in the last two weeks for December-January shipment at destination prices equivalent to Fob Santos at +80H (Fob premium 80 cents per bushel above the March contract at CBOT)...   For the off-season we are hearing business every day in Mato Grosso on a basis well above export parity as well. It seems that the reduction in area and technolog