Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits New contract lows were set in corn yesterday. July set it at $4.08 and December hit a low at $4.21. The July soybean contract traded down 21½¢ to settle at $10.25¼ and November finished down 18½¢ to settle the day at $10.18½. Soybean meal and soybean oil were lower on the day. The seasonal trend is a tough one to fight with. The Argentine province of Buenos Aires received snow yesterday for the first time in 18 years. Brazil’s state of Paraná reported widespread frost

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 554,400 mts of new crop (2025 corn) and 75,600 mts of 2026 corn to Mexico. Somebody in Mexico thinks corn is really cheap to be buying that much for future delivery. Mexico’s wheat imports for the 2025/26 season are projected to rise to 6.4 million mts due to its lowest harvest in 30 years. Current season import estimates are at 5.2 million mts. The U.S. remains the primary supplier with a share of about 73%, followed

Tidbits The U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steven Wittkoff, was scheduled to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to discuss Iran's response to the U.S. nuclear deal proposal. The meeting was cancelled. Iran has reached out to Oman and Qatar, requesting that they mediate with Washington to halt the ongoing Israeli strikes and restart nuclear talks, a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post Sunday. Saudi Arabia is also working

Q&A: Old Crop Soybean Basis Question from a client: Thanks for all the good info in your emails. I wanted to share some local basis info and suggest you encourage farmers not to wait too long like I did to lock in basis. I sold soybeans on a July futures contract last winter and waited for the basis to improve at our local processor in Mankato, MN over the past several months it has been improving going from -.40 a few cents at a time time -.35, -.25, -.20 etc usually sta

Tidbits Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange is warning that the country stands to lose significant corn and soybean meal export share to Vietnam in the wake of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal. In the area of Boa Esperança Do Norte, Mato Grosso a record yield of safrinha corn was announced: 223 bushels/acre (233.16 60Kg-bags/hectare). AgRural raised Brazil’s corn production to 128.5 million mts (USDA 130), supporting medium-term supply. However, AgRural warns early planting in M

Tidbits Pro Farmer reports: Some yield concerns are cropping up in Brazil, with some later-planted safrinha corn facing an increased stress in drier biased areas, most notably in center-west areas. For anyone watching our daily rain day charts that is no surprise. The first three locations are Brazil’s safrinha corn area and the dry season clearly started the first week in May. The dry season usually means no rain. Imagine what a corn field looks like if planted in sandy so

Tidbits Weather for the next six days predict Missouri, southern areas of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana will get the most rain, as much as 3 to 4 inches (76 to 102 mm). Wind gusts over the major hard wheat production regions are expected to blow over 50 mph in the next ten days. StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville: "Phosphate values are incredibly high priced with few signs it will soften. NOLA DAP is @ $680." The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI f

Tidbits The U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 4.29 million barrels in the reporting week ending 9 May, a sharp reversal from the prior week's 4.49 million-barrel draw, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The markets expected a 2.4 million-barrel decline. None-the-less, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up $1.72 a barrel yesterday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday morning reported the annual inflation rate at the retail level declined

Highlights Ag Canada reported yesterday that wheat export traders are saying Chinese buyers have bought 400,000 to 500,000 mts of wheat from Australia and Canada in recent weeks as drought and heat has already done significant damage to the wheat crop in Henan province, which grows about a third of China’s 140 million mts wheat crop. There is a reason May is the seasonal high for wheat prices, so do not be pricing new crop wheat yet. A crop tour projects Oklahoma’s winter w

Highlights The U.S. eliminated the exemption of tariffs on goods under $800 shipped directly to consumers. Such goods, mostly from China, face a 120% tariff or a $100 flat fee per postal item, rising to $200 on June 1. This targets e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu. The U.S. approached China for trade talks, but China insists on canceling 145% tariffs on its goods first, calling Trump’s strategy “extortion.” China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Fentanyl L

Q&A: Marketing Plans A Prospective Client asked on 22 April 2025: "I am getting your trial emails and have a couple of questions. My marketing plan is to store as many bushels as possible on farm and market them as old crop between 5-12 and 6-22-25 selling ~17% each week for 6 weeks, maybe every Wednesday at noon? When selling old crop, do I just sell cash price for the nearby month and deliver during the six-week period described above?" We usually recommend you separate th

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks on All Position Report as of 1 March and Intended Plantings Report. From a grain market standpoint, this is the second most important report of the year. Only the June Quarterly Stocks and Actual Plantings Reports are more important than today’s reports. Gary asked: "I am somewhat confused about the ADM corn survey you sent Sunday morning. Carryover down 198 (million bushels) from last yea

Highlights On Saturday, China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, retaliating against Canadian tariffs introduced in October. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 20 March and they match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products. Canola was excluded from a China tariff, which was one of Canada's top exports to the world's top agricultural importer prio

Highlights Corn is pricing-in: The rain that fell in Argentina over the weekend and the heavy rains expected in the next 10 days. While those rains will save a lot of corn, it will not replace the lost yields. Even USDA reduced the Argentine corn production two weeks ago. Those bushels are not coming back. The anticipation of a big increase in 2025 corn acres from the USDA’s Outlook Forum on Thursday. Everyone has been talking about big 2025 corn acres for months. The expecta

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate one million mts to 171 million due to “surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week.” Alê Delara is an agronomist and farmer in the Brazilian state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. Yesterday he said, “Here come the beans! We will probably have the highest productivity here on the farm since we started with soybeans.” Kory Melby is t

Tidbits Agriculture futures markets will not trade until tomorrow evening at normal times. Crude oil will trade normal hours this evening...

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.” We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon: The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights Why did corn and beans crash and burn yesterday? The Weekly Export Sales report issued yesterday morning was terrible as it always is Christmas week. It should never be a surprise, but poor sales Christmas week is always a disappointment. The House of Representatives was scheduled to select a Speaker yesterday. The last time they tried to elect a Speaker, it took three weeks! Thankfully, after the CBOT closed, Mike Johnson, (R-La.) was re-elected to lead the H

Highlights The USDA released its November crush numbers yesterday after the close: Soybean crush was 210 million bu., 10 million more than the same month a year ago. Canola crush was 211,013 tons, down from 219,843 tons a year ago. Corn crushed for all purposes was 514 million bu., up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol crush was 465 million bu., up 2% from a year ago. StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop 5.2 million mts to 171.4 million mts (USDA

Tidbits The grain markets will close at 12:05 PM CT this week Tuesday, December 24th. The markets will be closed all day on Wednesday, December 25th. They will open back up on Thursday at 8:30 AM CT, December 26th. The U.S. government pushed through a funding bill at the last minute, President Biden signed it on Saturday, putting off the next fight over the debt ceiling until March, when it will become a problem for President-elect Trump. The bill included a one-year extens