BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Peace Talks: U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll held previously unannounced talks late Monday and all day Tuesday with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi as part of an intense new push by President Trump to end the war in Ukraine. Initial reports Tuesday morning were things were going just peachy, but when presented to Ukraine’s officials, who arrived in Abu Dhabi late Tuesday, it was immediately rejected. A group of European countries supporting Ukraine, which is known as

Tidbits Politics and economics:  Thursday evening, the U.S. Senate passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026. It authorizes $913.9 billion in defense spending. The NDAA sets policy and funding priorities for the Department of Defense (or War), including modernization of military capabilities, support for service members, and enhancements to national security technologies. It now heads to the conference committee for reconciliatio

Tidbits Trade talks:  President Trump did talk yesterday morning with China’s President Xi. This is what Trump had to say after the call:  The soybean market was not impressed. November beans settled 12¢ lower yesterday and at the lowest closing price since 11 August.   Flash sale:  Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 206,460 mts of 2025 crop corn to unknown.   Also yesterday, Sec. of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins announced Taiwan agreed to purchase $10 billion wo

Highlights The White House  issued this press release shortly after 1:15 PM EDT Sunday: Reuters News Service, May 11, 2025:17 PM EDT: The U.S. and China ended high-stakes trade talks on a positive note on Sunday, with U.S. officials touting a "deal" to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, while Chinese officials said the sides had reached "important consensus" and agreed to launch another new economic dialogue forum.   Neither side released details after they wrapped up two days of

Tidbits StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reports NOLA urea values have hit $450 for the first time since the end of 2022. For reference, 2022 ended with December corn prices at $6.00.   South Korean flour mills bought 50,000 mts of milling wheat  from the U.S.   Jordan has issued a tender to buy up to 120,000 mts of milling wheat. The S&P Global Composite (services and manufacturing) Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) for the U.S. was reported at 51.2, down from last mo

Tidbits May options expire  this Friday, April 25th. First notice day for May futures is April 30th. Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday morning he expects the trade war  between the U.S. and China to de-escalate since current tariffs are unsustainable. The market took that to mean that the White House may reverse its decision to place a tariff of 145% on China's imports. Equity markets got another boost when President Trump confirmed he has no plans to remove Federal R

Tidbits China  bought a weekly record 60 ship loads of Brazil’s soybeans  this past week, boosted by robust farmer sales and better profit margins of China crushers. More than 5.2 million mts were sold.   Corporate China spent years living by the 996 rule: work 9 AM to 9 PM six days a week. Now, companies are beginning to ease off because of the potential loss of the American markets.   A highly unusual personnel move in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ha

Highlights Putin and Trump talked for more than 2 hours yesterday. Putin told Trump that a complete cessation of military aid to Kyiv is the key condition for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, according to TASS, the Russian news service. Putin also noted the serious risks associated with the non-agreement of Kiev, which has already repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached.   Putin has agreed to an initial "energy and infrastructure" ceasefire, to be followed

Highlights The fear of Trump’s tariffs  being applied to U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada stopped and then killed an end-of-the-week, end-of-the-month, profit-taking rally despite a grossly oversold corn market. May corn has lost 46¾¢ the past 8 trading days and settled lower than any day since 9 January.       The Dow was down 140 points early yesterday afternoon but recovered to end the day up 601 points.   Crude oil recovered about half of its early losses, but no recov

Highlights Yesterday, Saudi Arabia hosted the first talks between Russia and the U.S. since the start of the war in Ukraine . President Donald Trump commented on their outcome, here are the main points: Trump called the meeting between the U.S. and Russian delegations ‘very good’ and admitted that after it he became ‘much more confident’ in reaching a deal on a settlement in Ukraine; Trump said he was not against sending European troops to Ukraine, but there would be no Ameri

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action  the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course o

Highlights Canada is taking similar measures in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 25%  tariffs on its goods, Canadian Prime...

Highlights Former Minnesota farmer turned Brazil all-around ag consultant Kory Melby commented Saturday afternoon on X: “These numbers will increase a lot by next Friday, however, MT (Mato Grosso)  soy harvest at 4.2% vs 21% (a year ago) , MT cotton planting 29% vs 77% and corn planting at 1% vs 11%. Cotton is now out of the ideal  (planting)  window and corn has 1 month  (before the ideal planting window closes) . Next 30 days are mega important for 2nd corn."   If Kory is c

Highlights President Donald Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday. A Trump administration official said Trump would issue a broad trade memo that stops short of immediate tariffs but directed federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China, Canada and Mexico. That news slammed the U.S. dollar lower by 1.28 and gave world stock markets a boost on Monday. The World Economic Forum was founded by Klaus Schwab 24 January 1971. It describes itself as a

Today is the day to liquidate long January futures positions to eliminate any chance of being assigned a delivery. Tidbits Several agricultural input suppliers in Argentina are struggling financially or have already filed bankruptcy. The problem was the input suppliers did not change their marketing and financing program when the conservative, cost-cutting President Javier Milei took office a year ago.   The crop input suppliers did not not expect inflation to be reduced, the

Highlights Two telecommunications cables cut in the Baltic Sea in 48 hours prompted European officials to say Tuesday that they suspect "sabotage" and "hybrid warfare" linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   The four countries affected by the cuts, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden, have all launched investigations, with Berlin and Swedish police saying they suspected sabotage. Two Danish navy ships began shadowing a Chinese cargo vessel, the Yi Peng 3, as it sailed o

Successful International Trade Negotiations Require Tough Negotiators Japan was the largest importer of U.S. agricultural products just...

Highlights Two men were arrested in New York City and a third is being sought as an Iranian plot to kill  Donald Trump was foiled.     The Biden Administration has lifted sanctions  on Russian banks while still promising to cut Russia off from the Western financial system. The US Treasury Department cleared energy-related transactions with Otkritie Bank, Zenit, Saint Petersburg, Sovcombank, Sberbank, VTB, Alfa Bank, Vnesheconombank, Rosbank, the National Clearing Center (NCC)

At 10 AM Mountain Time today the USDA will issue its November S&D.  On Wednesday, an EPA auditor gave an agricultural commercial chemical applicator, who does business with one of our clients, a set of new regulations that went into effect Wednesday. The applicator told our client these new regulations will require some serious limitations in 2025. The limited information our client has is that the new regulations have something to do with the Endangered Species Act. If any o

Highlights Leaders of foreign countries who sell products to the U.S. markets, are scurrying to prepare to deal with President Trump’s...