BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Russian forces continue to hit port infrastructure and damaged a cargo terminal in Odessa. Over the last 10 days, 26 port facilities have been hit in Ukraine. It came to our attention yesterday midday that troubled PacWest Bank was going to be absorbed by the Banc of California. The deal was done two days before it became common knowledge. Here is the press release from the 25th which we did not see nor did anyone we know talk or write about it: "The Banc of Calif

Pricing Soybeans Sell all remaining 2022 (old crop) soybeans. This is generic market information. If you are a full service client, talk...

Highlights After Wednesday’s less than expected retail inflation report for June at 0.2%, yesterday’s inflation at the wholesale level report for June was 0.1% and the resulting 12 month inflation rate was the smallest in nearly three years. It means the economy has entered a period of disinflation even with a very tight labor market. The run of softer inflation readings will bring an end the Federal Reserve tightening money supply campaign. Lower interest rates will reduce t

Crop Prospective Feedback Written by Greg early AM Friday, 7 July, 2023: Roger, Crop prospective from a farmer in Central Illinois, our farming operation is located about 10 miles west of Mowery Auction in Milford IL and spans in a 15 mile radius. Most Corn fields here are 5-6' tall and vary in height due to soil types and stress on the crop. The corn is tasseling and the recent rainfall over the 4th week helped to add moisture as we pollinate. We measured 1.8-2.5" of ra

Highlights Today is the last business day of the week, the month and the quarter and there is only one business day (Monday) until the middle of next week. Throw-in the changing weather forecasts and the war in Eastern Europe, you better get a seat belt for your office chair. December corn settled yesterday below the gap made the first week of June on the daily chart. Technically, bad news if one wants corn to go higher. However, the settlement was 38¢ above the May low, so a

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to get some scattered showers off and on next week. It looks like everyone should get at least a half inch. If actual rainfall comes as predicted, for most of you it will be nice, but it will not make the corn crop. Throw-in July options expired yesterday, the markets were over-bought (too high, too fast), and it was the end of a week, profit-taking was the order of the day. We still have a week before July arrives. We are a very long way

Markets will close at normal time today and reopen on Monday evening at normal time before a three-day weekend. Monday night, markets will be sharply higher or sharply lower. Right now it looks higher, but weather can change in a matter of hours. Rain or no rain the next ten days are not going to make or lose the crop. Do not be selling new crop. Highlights Yesterday morning, the weather outlook was light showers with poor coverage into the last week of June. At midday yester

Today at 11:00 Central Time, the USDA will release its June S&D report, which will most likely be a non-event. USDA seldom changes any US demand numbers on the March, June, September or December S&D because 20 days later, the Quarterly Grain Inventory report is released and that takes the guesswork out of the demand question. Speaking of which, do you remember the March soybean USDA inventory was 57 million bushels less than expected because the monthly crush and export numb

Highlights The weekly US Drought Monitor this week has corn producing areas in a certified drought increased by 8% to 34% overall. Humidity yesterday afternoon in Ohio was in the 25% area, Indiana was in the 35% area and most of the Corn Belt States further west and north were in the 45% humidity level. The Senate passed the debt ceiling bill late Thursday 63 to 36. All markets breathed a collective (but unnecessary) sigh of relief. The USA was never going to default on it

Highlights A load of USA economic news was released yesterday morning and all of it was better than expected, which means we are more likely to see higher interest rates to bring on that recession that all the government officials and ivory tower financial power houses have been predicting. The numbers: USA new unemployment jobless claims were 229,000, 6.5% less than the expected 245,000. Continuing unemployment claims were 1.794 million, 6,000 less than expected. First qu

Highlights Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia will not extend the Ukraine grain deal after July 17 if all problematic issues are not resolved. The Wheat Quality Council’s HRW wheat tour’s final yield estimate for Kansas was 30 bushels per acre for a total production of 178 million bushels (USDA 191.4). That would be Kansas’ smallest crop since 1957 and implies an abandonment rate of 26.75%. Nationwide, 46% of the winter wheat production is in drought conditions this week

Highlights The producer price index (PPI) measures inflation at the wholesale level. Yesterday morning’s monthly report showed wholesale inflation in April was up 0.2% in April; 0.3% was expected. For the past 12 months, the PPI was 2.3%. These inflation numbers, being less than expected, reduce the probability of more interest rate increases. You can see why interest rates increased the past year with the chart of inflation at the wholesale level (PPI) the past 10 years: Chi

Brian Burnell suggested that July calls, which Roger recommended yesterday to buy, may not have enough life to catch the big move up. Brian is correct. Roger was thinking like a trader. We know markets do not go up every day nor do they go down every day (it just seems like they go down every day). If you already own a July call, you need to be looking for a very strong rally in the coming seven weeks and sell those July calls, wait for the futures price to correct lower and

Repeating 2013? Market outlook 2012 was the sixth Corn Belt wide drought since 1900. The other five were in 1934, 1936, 1980, 1983, and 1988. Corn and bean futures made their all-time high trade in 2012. December 2012 corn traded to $8.49 on August 10th and then December 2013 corn traded to $4.10 in October 2013. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/Zcz13/interactive-chart November 2012 beans traded to $17.89 on September 4th. By the fall of 2013, November 2013 beans wer

Highlights May CBOT options expire today. Thursday saw disappointing jobs data, housing data, Philadelphia Manufacturing Index and Leading Economic Indicators all indicated a recession is in the near future for the USA. Meanwhile, a Federal Reserve governor reminded the news media how important it is to continue to remain strong in the fight to control inflation. He said interest rates must be increased. So, four economic reports yesterday indicated a recession will be upon

Highlights The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March came in yesterday a negative number, meaning inflation at the wholesale level was actually deflation for the first time since May 2020. Deflation is caused by a poor economy and scares politicians and bankers alike. It is also a very good reason to reduce interest rates. CBOT prices turned lower yesterday when the rumor hit the market news that Mexico had bought 500,000 mts of Russian wheat. China imported 7.9% more soy

American markets are closed today and will begin trading normal time Sunday evening. Highlights The US initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1, which was 28,000 more claims than expected. Worse yet, data for last week’s new unemployment claims was revised higher by a whopping 48,000. The Canadian economy added more jobs than expected in March and the unemployment rate remained near a record low for a

Today is the last trading day of the week, the month and the first quarter. That right there can make for strange happenings. Throw in yesterday’s indictment of Trump, down-grade of Charles Schwab investment quality and today’s USDA numbers at midday, and this day has the potential to rock the boat. Stay seated and focused. There is nothing that is going to happen today that will require you to do anything in the markets. Highlights At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will

Highlights After trashing the markets yesterday afternoon when she said there would be no government guarantee on 100% of bank deposits, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, had a different story Thursday when it came to the ongoing debate over insuring bank deposits beyond the $250,000 limit. In prepared remarks to a House committee, Yellen repeated that the Biden administration’s actions tied to recent banking meltdowns were “taken to ensure that Americans’ deposits are saf

Tidbits USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 641,000 mts of old crop corn to China. The three-day old crop corn sales to China total is 1.92 million mts (75.6 million bushels). The corn basis is firming at the river and Great Lake terminals and the May futures corn contract has gained 7¢ on July corn this week and 17¢ since last fall. May will gain another 10 to 20¢ by mid-Arpil now that corn exports are moving. Last year, May corn went 44¢ over July. So many farmer