BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Every month the USDA issues a Cold Storage Report . They are usually not significant for grains, but Wednesday’s report showed all but one of the food categories in the nation’s commercial freezers are substantially less than a year ago: red meat down 4%; beef down 1%; pork down 7% including bellies down 26% (just before BLT season), cheese down 2%, and butter down 5%. Only American cheese inventory was up, 5% more than a year ago. “American cheese” is a distinct prod

Tidbits The number of daylight minutes  will decline every day for the next six months for most of our clients.   Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of 124,000 mts of new crop corn to unknown. Weekly corn export sales were more than a million mts (41 million bushels) and the weather is going to be brutal for corn and beans this weekend. None-the-less, yesterday's corn action was very disappointing. July corn had a 6¾¢ range, made a new contract low by a penny and

Tidbits Reuters reported yesterday that President Trump  and China's leader Xi held a phone call  that lasted about 90 minutes. The primary topic was trade. U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in person soon, resuming formal trade negotiations. Soybeans were higher because of that news. President Trump also had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields. Vladimir Putin stated that he will be obliged to resp

Highlights Multiple U.S. sources, including President Trump, said yesterday that trade negotiations with China  are going nowhere and perhaps backwards. That news is not a big surprise as there has been no news about the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US-China trade deal is at risk of falling apart over rare earth minerals.   The U.S. trade deficit  narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion (46%) from a record $162.3 billion in March. The

Tidbits Grain markets will be closed on Monday due to Memorial Day , it will reopen at 7 PM CT on Monday, May 26. The National Grain and Feed Association opposes expanding agricultural futures trading hours , warning it could cause unnecessary volatility and increase manipulation risk, especially if futures markets are open while cash markets are closed. In a letter to the CFTC, they stressed that a pause in futures trading is crucial for physical commodity deliveries. The Na

Tidbits Soybeans traded sharply lower yesterday because bean oil traded down the 3¢ per pound daily limit yesterday morning. That was because EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said late Wednesday that setting the biofuel mandates for 2026 can be expected in the coming months, which was much later than the market expected. The real bean oil hammer were rumors reported by news wire services that the required Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) levels in 2026 will be 4.65 billion gallo

Highlights The highly respected London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG, which bought Refinitiv, formerly the Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters) predicts U.S. corn acres at 94.3 million (USDA 95.3). Stats Canada reported corn for grain stocks as of 31 March 2025, were down 13% from a year ago at 7.197 million mt. Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of: 40,000 mts of old crop corn and 165,000 mts of new crop corn to Mexico 115,000 mts of old crop corn to unkn

Tidbits The total U.S. soybean crush for March  was expected to be 205.5 million bushels, but USDA reported yesterday afternoon it was 206.572 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. The March canola crush was 200,953 tons, down about 5% from a year ago. The total corn crushed in March was 504 million bushels and the corn for ethanol was 454 million bushels, both down 4% from a year ago. New unemployment claims  in the U.S. for the last reporting week were above average at 24

Tidbits Soybean meal  prices in China and Brazil have been very strong this week. AgrInvest Commodities export trader Eduardo Vanin reports China’s soybean meal inventory is at a seven-year low. The rally was ignited by the report that first quarter feed production in China hit a new record high for the first three months of 2025 which was 7.6 million mts larger than 2024 and 5.4 million larger than 2023 which was the previous record.  Brazil's soybean exports are projected t

Tidbits The markets are closed today for Good Friday. They will reopen normal times on Sunday. Why have soybean futures been surprisingly firm this month? Canola futures rose above CA$680 per mt yesterday, up $120 since 17 March, as tightening supplies compounded with robust global demand for vegetable oils spurred the rally. China’s 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil makes canola seed exports to the U.S. very important for Canadian farmers. The U.S. is Canada’s top

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

Tidbits OPEC+  is reversing its production cuts with output set to rise by more than expected in May because they see continuing healthy market fundamentals. After cutting their oil production for more than a year, OPEC+ will add 411,000 barrels per day in May. The larger-than-expected production boost by OPEC+ added to the tariff-fueled recession fears to sink oil prices more than $5 per barrel yesterday. The White House stated U.S. imports of oil, gas, and refined products

Tidbits The Trump administration has urged oil and biofuels  producers to collaborate on a new biofuels policy to prevent political conflicts similar to those in his first term. This initiative has led to at least two meetings, including one hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. Key discussions included increasing the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Ethanol blending mandates are curren

Highlights Crude oil  was higher yesterday in past because of this press release yesterday morning from the U.S. Treasury : Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating a “teapot” oil refinery and its chief executive officer for purchasing and refining hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude oil, including from vessels linked to the Foreign Terrorist Organization, Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis, and

Highlights CONAB ( Brazil’s  USDA) updated its production estimates yesterday (all numbers are million mts): Soybeans: 167.369, up 1.346 from last month (USDA 169) All Corn: 122.760, up 440,000 (USDA 126) Second crop corn: 95.515, down 533,000 (USDA NA) The basis for corn, soybean, and soybean meal in Brazil was firmer yesterday despite the higher futures prices.   In Argentina , the Rosario Stock Exchange has once again reduced its projection for the corn harvest by 1.5 mill

Highlights Early yesterday afternoon, President Trump said, "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement until April 2nd.   Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said, "We had an excellent and respectful call in which we agreed that our work and collaboration have yielded unprecedented results, within the framework of respect for our sovereignties."   Sheinbaum

Highlights On Wednesday, President Trump postponed for 30 days the 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports scheduled to be applied on 4 March. Yesterday morning, he cancelled the postponement and stated the 25% tariff would go into effect on March 4. He also stated tariffs will increase 10% tomorrow on goods coming from China.   The market’s fear is Mexico, being the number one buyer of U.S. corn, will slap a tariff on U.S. corn imports. That is certainly possible, but Mex

Tidbits March options expired  yesterday at the close. Corn and bean prices were lower, which usually happens on the expiration day for options. Next Thursday is the last trading day before first notice day, which means Wednesday and Thursday most likely will be down days for corn and beans and Friday will be an up day.   Argentina’s FOB corn price was down 10¢ a bu. this week for April and May shipments. We might start seeing Argentina competing with U.S. corn in Asia. In Br

Highlights After the ag futures close today, they will not reopen until Monday evening at normal times. Crude oil will be trading normal hours Sunday night and Monday. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentine corn production by 2 million mts to 46 million mts (USDA 50) and lowered soybean production by 5 million to 47.5 million mts (USDA 49). CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) reduced their Brazilian soybean production estimate by a mere 310,000 mts to 166 million mts

Highlights Crude oil  futures lost a dollar Thursday morning and closed about 40¢ lower after President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production to lower energy costs. That statement unnerved traders despite Trump also said sanctions would be enforced and new sanctions applied that would eventually drop Iran’s crude oil exports to zero. Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, up from 1.4 in 2023 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2022. With cru