BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights The first sentence of yesterday’s report was: "Sunday’s weather forecast indicates remnants of Hurricane Beryl will probably bring some rain to the Eastern Corn Belt over the next 7 days, where rain is really needed." We should have added,  "That means corn and beans will be smartly lower today."   We certainly did not expect the magnitude of the losses we saw, but a test of the contract lows on December corn at $4.12 would not have surprised us. Instead, December

The CBOT will start trading at 8:30 AM Central Time Friday.  Highlights Soybean oil leaped higher yesterday, with August up 1.6¢ per pound. Over the past 6 trading days, bean oil has added 76¢ of value to a bushel of soybeans (6.6¢ gain in value per pound of oil times 11.5 pounds of oil per bushel of soybeans). Tomorrow, we will get vegetable oil analyst Khawaja Haroon’s insights on the vegetable oil market.   The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were sharply higher and made new all-time h

Highlights "North Carolina will more than likely be labeled as a State of Emergency next week or the following in regards to drought. Last rainfall we saw was 4 weeks ago, Corn started to pollinate 3 weeks ago. Most corn is tasseled but has aborted putting off an ear or silking at all. Beans are dying in the field and look terrible. Damage seems to be state wide with damage even in our darker, wetter soils in eastern NC that typically produce big yields. By far one of the wor

Highlights Agrinvest Commodities’ Eduardo Vanin yesterday morning comments: "Basis FOB Brazil and CFR China dropped quickly last week. Over the last 30 days, the roller-coaster of basis in the CFR China market has been intense. China is covered more than 80% of July shipment, but less than 15% for August . Sino is rotating stocks. A new soybean auction was announced for this week (990,000 tons). More trades were reported out of Argentina and the US Gulf during the week, but n

Highlights The US dollar rallied sharply yesterday midday trade at its highest level since May 1st.   With the exception of North Dakota, the weather outlook was not so bad in the Corn Belt, so profit-taking on a Friday after two up-days in corn and beans.   The government weather gurus have announced that the El Nino episode has officially ended and the world is in a state of ENSO-neutral conditions, but La Niña is coming, probably a month later than expected a month ago. Sa

Highlights The US corn crop is 95% planted vs. 91% last week. Corn is 85% emerged vs. 84% average. It is rated 74% good or excellent, 1%...

Highlights Crude oil prices dropped $2+ yesterday when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he is ready to suspend hostilities in the Gaza Strip for six weeks, but will not agree to a complete ceasefire. He said there are many details that need to be worked out. That means a cease-fire will probably not happen. Lowe crude oil prices mean lower prices for biofuels and that means lower prices for corn and beans.   Corn planting was reported to be 91% complete vs.

Highlights Deputy Assistant to President Biden for National Security Affairs, Dalip Singh, said the United States may introduce a trade embargo against Russian goods. “The history of the embargo is not great, but as Russia completely transforms its economy into a factory for the war machine, we will come to a point where that is what we will get,”  Singh said. “The military-industrial complex in Russia may now be stronger than before the outbreak of hostilities.” Singh called

Highlights From a seasonal point of view, this rally in wheat may be the last one to test recent highs or make new highs as the seasonal trend turns down in 10 calendar days and 8 business days. This weekend is a three-day weekend. Stock markets around the world are very strong as “everyone” thinks the Federal Reserve is probably going to reduce interest rates this year.   Soybean basis in Brazil reached the highest value of the season yesterday +60¢ for July shipment. Last y

Highlights Planting progress: The Nation’s corn crop is 49% planted; the 5-year average is 54%. Soybeans are 35% planted; the 5-year average of 34%. Spring wheat is 61% planted; the 5-year average of 48%. Cotton is 33% planted; the 5-year average of 31%. Sorghum is 26% planted; the 5-year average of 26%. Rice is 84% planted; the 5-year average of 72%. Sugar beets are 92% planted; the 5-year average of 65%.   Winter wheat crop condition is the same as a week ago at 50% good/ex

Fees As prices have firmed since February 26th, many of our clients have had conversations with merchandisers about marketing tools. From Nebraska to Upstate New York, there has been a big move to add or increase fees to initiate HTA contracts. For many years, some merchandisers had a service fee of 1 to 4¢ per bushel for HTA contracts. Many merchandisers who never charged HTA fees in the past are now and many of those who had been charging HTA fees upped the fees to as much

Highlights Some rain came into the forecast for Russia’s wheat crop which triggered profit-taking after the big gains last week. Expected rain amounts diminished as Monday turned into Tuesday.   As expected by the market, the nation’s corn crop is 27% in the ground and 5% ahead of the 5-year average.   Soybean planting progress is 18% complete versus the 5-year average of 10%.   The spring wheat crop is 34% complete versus the 5-year average of just 19%.   Sorghum is 19% plan

Highlights The seven days are expected to be very, very wet for the central US with heavy rain from Canada to Texas and from Nebraska through Indiana. Western Kansas is expected to see only light rains with Eastern Kansas to see upwards of 1 to 2 inches (26 to 52 mm). Recent forecast for rains in Kansas did not materialize.    Kansas' wheat crop lost 7% from good and excellent categories, down to 36% this week. Worse yet, Oklahoma lost 11% out of the top two categories, now 4

Tidbits Yesterday’s US retail sales for March were up 0.7%, 0.4% stronger than the market expected. Retail sales for February were revised higher to show sales rebounding 0.9%, which was the largest gain in just over a year, instead of the previously reported 0.6%. That pretty much killed any chance of any interest rate cuts in 2024, much less three of them as the market had been expecting a few months ago.   Today's economic numbers from China included GDP through the first

Highlights StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reported yesterday afternoon India shocked the global urea market by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724,000 mts to 340,000 mts. Seldom does India buy less than a million mts and often purchases ~1.5 million mts 8 to 10 times a year.   The May urea futures price (FOB NOLA) was down $30 per ton to $272.50 yesterday. There is no daily limit on urea futures. A month ago, May urea futures price was $340 per ton.      Ba

Highlights The Washington Post  reported yesterday a person was infected with the bird flu in Texas who had contact with infected dairy cattle. This is the first bird flu case since 2022. The cattle futures dropped like a rock following the release of the headline, but did not settle limit down.   The Central US from the Gulf into Canada is expected to receive above normal rainfall over the next 14 days. Rain makes grain, especially corn. The weather forecast for rain is why

Highlights An early Monday morning shift in weather forecast increased precipitation the next 10 to 15 days for Mato Grosso, where most of Brazil’s safrinha corn and late planted beans were struggling with hot and dry conditions.   SAFRAS put Brazilian bean production at 148.6 mil. mt, (USDA 155) and the Brazilian bean harvest is 62.25% complete with some delays noted in RGDS due to too much rain.   Corn prices in Brazil were higher Monday supported by higher crude oil (Russi

FSA Program News and Updates   The 2024 ARC/PLC Program enrollment and election change deadline is March 15, 2024. To be enrolled in the program you MUST sign a contract every year; the program does not auto-renew.   CRP General Sign Up is underway. All General offers need to be submitted by March 29, 2024, for the ranking process.   CONAB production report to be released within a few hours. Highlights Definition of “B3” is short for the São Paulo Stock, Commodities and Futur

USDA will issue its monthly S&D Friday at 10 AM Mountain Time. It will be a non-event for US numbers. No production changes on US crops until May and domestic demand changes will most likely be unchanged as USDA historically waits until April to make demand changes after seeing the March Quarterly Inventory Report, which is released on the last business day of March.   World production is what to watch on Friday. With the USDA predicting more corn and beans from South America

First notice day for deliveries on March CBOT contracts is this Thursday, which is usually an up day for markets after (usually) a down day the previous day as all the holders of long positions in the March futures are liquidating to avoid being assigned bushels. Translation: Your futures broker and your merchandiser want you to price or roll all March long positions before the close tomorrow. Highlights More scuttlebutt Monday about the possibility of more corn exports to Ch