BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Three American soldiers were killed Sunday and 34 were wounded in a drone strike against the U.S. military outpost Tower 22 in Jordan, which is the country bordering the east side of Israel.  Two Navy Seals died in rough seas earlier this month trying to board a ship suspected of carrying weapons from Iran to Yemen.   U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a one-week high Thursday on forecasts for higher demand in two weeks when the weather turns slightly cool

Highlights China reduced the required cash reserve of deposits for the nation’s banks, which allows the banks to loan a higher percentage of their deposits. This action makes more money available for businesses and consumers which will stimulate the economy and increase demand for just about everything. This move is projected to inject about $140 billion of cash into the economy.   The Suez Canal and Red Sea area of conflict gets more dangerous every day.      Yesterday, the

Tidbits Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of 126,700 mts of old crop corn to Mexico.   NOPA December crush was a record at 193.5 mil bu. Previous record was October and November close to it. Soy oil stocks of 1.36 bil lbs were above expectations.   Aprosoja, an association representing thousands of grain farmers in Brazil, projects soybeans production of 135 million metric tons. Aprosoja Brasil's estimate is lower than private forecasters' projections of production th

Market Comment The USDA will issue its monthly S&D, Quarterly Grains Stocks, final 2023 Crop Production and Actual Planted Acres of Winter Wheat Reports Friday, January 12th.   The market is going to expect an increase in corn and beans yields with possible small increases in demand for corn and beans. The market will not expect a significant decline in the South American crops. USDA simply does not make significant production changes in January for South Hemisphere crops, no

Highlights Argentina devalued its currency while everyone was asleep Wednesday morning, which is when a devaluation should be done. The Argentina Peso was devalued by 54%; now 801 pesos per US$. The market was afraid the devaluation would cause a lot of Argentine agriculture products to hit the international market. That could not happen. While Argentina does have a little wheat to sell, it has been importing corn and beans from Brazil for many months. Plus, export permits we

Highlights Late yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed by a vote of 336-95 a temporary spending bill that would extend government funding through mid-January, now heads to the Senate, where Democratic and Republican leaders have voiced support. There will not be a government shutdown Friday.   The world’s “doom and gloom” predictors had a very bad day yesterday. Not only did the US Government avert a shutdown, good economic news prevailed.   The USA Consumer Pric

Highlights On Friday, Iraq said it wants OPEC+ to cut oil production at OPEC’s November 26th meeting. Some speculators covered their massive short positions Friday ahead of a weekend uncertainty, but crude was down 4% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. Confresha is a municipality in northeast Mato Grosso. From October first through the 10th of November in 2022, Confresha received 16.8 inches (427.8 mm) of rain. During the same calendar days in 2023, the Confres

Highlights The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the rate of inflation at the retail level. This morning, China reported both indexes. The PPI annual rate was expected to be -2.7% (deflation). The actual PPI was a -2.6% (less deflation than expected, which is good) The annual CPI rate was expected to be -0.1%. The actual CPI was -0.2% (not terrible, but worse than expected). From MetSul Meteo

Highlights Fears over a wider Middle East conflict continue to mount as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks targeting a Red Sea shipping port in southern Israel yesterday. Israel claimed it killed the top two leaders of HAMAS. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday and Chairman Jerome Powell talked with a softer tone than in the past about how high interest rates may go and for how long. AD

Highlights Cash wheat export traders are saying China has probably bought more milling quality wheat this year than ever before. Their wheat crop problem was too much rain at harvest. The past few days, traders say China bought about 2 million mt of milling wheat from Australia and the same tonnage from France or the EU which probably put China wheat purchases at record large. Dr. Cordonnier reduced his corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil by 2 million mts each.

Highlights The EU Commissioner for Energy called an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss the possibility of a diesel supply shortage. One EU official said to the press, "Oil is important. Not enough diesel could lead to strikes. Is this a 1973 moment or not?" In late October 1973, Arab Oil Exporting countries refused to sell crude to countries who supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War that began on the 6th of October. The serious fighting was pretty much over within 10 da

Tidbits Argentina's ruling coalition did much better than expected to lead the country's general election and set the stage for a vote next month between Socialist Sergio Massa (36% of the vote) and far-right libertarian radical Javier Milei (30% of the vote) with 80% of the votes counted. A conservative candidate had 23.7% of the vote. The war in Eastern Europe continues to escalate, but as rapidly as it did in the warmer months. The fighting in the Middle-East is rapidly e

Tidbits Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) announced Friday the construction of a soybean processing plant in Upper Sandusky, Ohio with integrated crushing, vegetable oil refining and lecithin production and packaging capabilities.   Construction will begin in early 2024; the new facility will employ over 100 people with an annual soy crushing capacity of 55 million bushels (1,500,000 mts). Annual production will be 320,000 mts of soybean oil and 7,500 mts of lecithin.   Dreyfus rec

Received 6:40 AM yesterday, thanks, Jason: "CHS Fairmont, MN soybean basis firmed from -.20 to + .5 today. Thanks for the great info Wright on the Market team." Today is Friday and harvest weekend. Think pre-hedging this afternoon before the close. Highlights New unemployment claims were 198,000, 12,000 fewer than expected and strong Netflix earnings had Wall Street trading higher yesterday morning when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the labor market is so st

House member Jim Jordan received 200 votes to be Speaker, but needs 217 to obtain speakership as 20 Republicans voted against Jordan. Republican leadership announced the House will reconvene today at 11 AM Eastern to discuss when to vote again. Highlights US retail sales were up 0.7% for September; the market expected a number closer to 0.3%. Industrial production was up 0.3%; the market expected up 0.1%, which are two more reasons the Fed is likely to raise interest rates ag

Politics Not a word about Ukraine’s corruption and its links with US political figures the past 24 hours. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is the leading candidate for the Speaker position and he said he is against Ukraine aid. The war will not continue very long without US aid. If the war ends, is that bearish or bullish wheat and corn? In the first year or two, it will depend on how well the two enemies can work together to get everything up and running. About half of the House Rep

Highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested interest rates will be “higher for longer” and could stay above 5% this year and next. Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but Powell did not rule out another interest-rate hike this year. Ukraine said they are ready to resume grain from exports from Black Sea Ports using a temporary corridor, with the first dry bulk carriers in place. The bulk carriers Resilient Africa and Aroyat arrived

Tidbits Mark has a friend near Oto in Woodbury County, Iowa who has cut two fields of beans. The first was 15 bu/ac, the second field 35 bu/ac. The war continues to escalate. Fertilizer Between January and July 2023, the United States increased purchases of fertilizers from Russia to a record US$944 million according to RIA Novosti using US Statistical Service numbers. Russia became #2 fertilizer supplier to the United States. The value of Russian fertilizer imports to the U

Marketing Comment The soybean meal and soybean oil marketing years end September 30. As always, there are shipments previously bought to be shipped this marketing year, but, for any one of hundreds of reasons, the actual shipments get delayed until after the end of the marketing year, making the shipment in the next marketing year. Yesterday’s Weekly Export Sales showed net cancellations for the current marketing year for meal and oil. Those who want lower prices are making

Highlights Rapidly forming El Niño conditions over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have increased the probability of a strong episode this winter that would likely raise temperatures and reduce gas consumption in the United States. Sea surface temperatures in the most critical region of the ocean have warmed rapidly and have been almost +1.3°C above the long-term seasonal average so far in August having started the year -0.7°C below average in January. Since 1973, durin