BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Market Comment The USDA will issue its April S&D today at 10 AM Mountain time. Given the March inventory of corn, we already know feed use this past winter was stronger than USDA expected. We already know from weekly numbers that the corn for ethanol crush and corn exports are running stronger than USDA projected for the year. But will USDA reduce the corn carryover below 2 billion bushels, as they should, based on the numbers we already know? Probably not.   The average esti

Carbon Cycle, Credits & Intensity Sharon asked Roger to share his thoughts on carbon credits.   From the time I was in elementary science class through soil science courses at Colorado State and Ohio State, I was taught there is a carbon cycle. Every living thing contains carbon. Organic matter is anything that is alive or was alive.   Animals and humans release carbon into the atmosphere when they exhale their breath and pass gas. By the way, there were more buffalo passing

Tidbits Last night’s 6 to 10 day NOAA weather forecast is calling for above and much above normal temperatures in the Corn Belt spreading east on the 8 to 14 day forecast. Both forecasts are predicting above normal rainfall for the Corn Belt with much above normal rainfall in the Western Corn Belt.   The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in February was rising by the fastest rate in just over a year. The United States economy continues to outperfor

Tidbits March U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was better than expected at 52.5, services PMI was below expectation at 51.7, values above 50 imply expansion. Existing home sales were better than expected at 4.38 million. Jobless claims at 210k were less than expected.   Iowa is facing drought for the 4th year in a row. Today's drought monitor showed at least abnormally dry conditions with 23% for corn and 19% for beans. Seasonal outlooks, released by NOAA to

Highlights Presidential elections have begun in Russia, voting will last 3 days. There are 4 candidates running in the election. According to the latest data, the level of support for Putin before the election was 82%. Tidbits Allendale’s farmer survey has US plantings of: Corn at 93.5 mil acres, down 1.2% from 2023 (USDA 91.0) Soybeans at 85.8 mil acres, up 2.7% (USDA 87.5) Wheat at 47.6 mil acres, down 3.9% (USDA 47.0)   The Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflat

First notice day for deliveries on March CBOT contracts is this Thursday, which is usually an up day for markets after (usually) a down day the previous day as all the holders of long positions in the March futures are liquidating to avoid being assigned bushels. Translation: Your futures broker and your merchandiser want you to price or roll all March long positions before the close tomorrow. Highlights More scuttlebutt Monday about the possibility of more corn exports to Ch

Tomorrow begins the third year of the Russian/Ukraine war and Russia is gaining momentum.   When the Japanese attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941, the US not only lost half its navy, but it was woefully unprepared for a war whereas the Japanese military had been expanding its empire throughout China and Southeast Asia since 1931. It took the USA 3 years and 8 months to destroy the Japanese Empire despite placing a priority on the defeat of Nazi Germany ahead

Highlights European corn and wheat made new lows yesterday. Corn $4.29¼ per bushel and milling wheat $5.30 per bushel.   Yesterday afternoon, 247AG predicted Brazil will have a dry April; Eric Snodgrass said the same thing on 8 February. A dry April will be hard on the safrinha corn.         Eduardo Vanin with Agrinvest Marketing of Brazil shared these main points from a conference call discussion yesterday (19 Feb) with 78 Brazilian producers, agronomists, and input dealers

The CBOT will reopen Monday evening instead of Sunday evening  in observance of Presidents’ Day. Tidbits NOPA soybean crush in January 2024 was 185.78 mil bu of soybeans, a record large crush for any January and 3.8% more than a year ago. The market expected 189.928 mil bu.   Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.507 bil lbs, the largest end-month supply in six months and above market expectations of 1.409 bil lbs. However, and more importantly, the bean oil inventory w

Tidbits The S&P 500 finished above 5,000 for the first time yesterday. The S&P 500 was up 14 of the past 15 weeks and up more than 20% the past 15 weeks. That has never happened before with any stock index.   Weather guru Eric Snodgrass said Thursday his work indicates Brazil’s dry season will start in April this year instead of May as it normally does. This is in the area where the safrinha (second) corn crop is grown.        Eduardo Vanin, cash grain export trader in Brazil

Highlights Yesterday morning, old crop corn and beans did  make new lows for 2024, extending the down trend since the spring 21 months ago. New crop corn (Dec) and beans (Nov) did not  make new lows.   March corn and March soybeans made key reversals yesterday, which is a respected technical trend indicator. A key reversal occurs when a commodity (or stock) makes a new low, but the settlement price is higher than the previous day’s high. Before you mortgage your house and buy

Highlights Three American soldiers were killed Sunday and 34 were wounded in a drone strike against the U.S. military outpost Tower 22 in Jordan, which is the country bordering the east side of Israel.  Two Navy Seals died in rough seas earlier this month trying to board a ship suspected of carrying weapons from Iran to Yemen.   U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a one-week high Thursday on forecasts for higher demand in two weeks when the weather turns slightly cool

Highlights China reduced the required cash reserve of deposits for the nation’s banks, which allows the banks to loan a higher percentage of their deposits. This action makes more money available for businesses and consumers which will stimulate the economy and increase demand for just about everything. This move is projected to inject about $140 billion of cash into the economy.   The Suez Canal and Red Sea area of conflict gets more dangerous every day.      Yesterday, the

Tidbits Yesterday morning, USDA reported the sale of 126,700 mts of old crop corn to Mexico.   NOPA December crush was a record at 193.5 mil bu. Previous record was October and November close to it. Soy oil stocks of 1.36 bil lbs were above expectations.   Aprosoja, an association representing thousands of grain farmers in Brazil, projects soybeans production of 135 million metric tons. Aprosoja Brasil's estimate is lower than private forecasters' projections of production th

Market Comment The USDA will issue its monthly S&D, Quarterly Grains Stocks, final 2023 Crop Production and Actual Planted Acres of Winter Wheat Reports Friday, January 12th.   The market is going to expect an increase in corn and beans yields with possible small increases in demand for corn and beans. The market will not expect a significant decline in the South American crops. USDA simply does not make significant production changes in January for South Hemisphere crops, no

Highlights Argentina devalued its currency while everyone was asleep Wednesday morning, which is when a devaluation should be done. The Argentina Peso was devalued by 54%; now 801 pesos per US$. The market was afraid the devaluation would cause a lot of Argentine agriculture products to hit the international market. That could not happen. While Argentina does have a little wheat to sell, it has been importing corn and beans from Brazil for many months. Plus, export permits we

Highlights Late yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed by a vote of 336-95 a temporary spending bill that would extend government funding through mid-January, now heads to the Senate, where Democratic and Republican leaders have voiced support. There will not be a government shutdown Friday.   The world’s “doom and gloom” predictors had a very bad day yesterday. Not only did the US Government avert a shutdown, good economic news prevailed.   The USA Consumer Pric

Highlights On Friday, Iraq said it wants OPEC+ to cut oil production at OPEC’s November 26th meeting. Some speculators covered their massive short positions Friday ahead of a weekend uncertainty, but crude was down 4% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. Confresha is a municipality in northeast Mato Grosso. From October first through the 10th of November in 2022, Confresha received 16.8 inches (427.8 mm) of rain. During the same calendar days in 2023, the Confres

Highlights The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the rate of inflation at the retail level. This morning, China reported both indexes. The PPI annual rate was expected to be -2.7% (deflation). The actual PPI was a -2.6% (less deflation than expected, which is good) The annual CPI rate was expected to be -0.1%. The actual CPI was -0.2% (not terrible, but worse than expected). From MetSul Meteo

Highlights Fears over a wider Middle East conflict continue to mount as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks targeting a Red Sea shipping port in southern Israel yesterday. Israel claimed it killed the top two leaders of HAMAS. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday and Chairman Jerome Powell talked with a softer tone than in the past about how high interest rates may go and for how long. AD