BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights India is, by far, the largest world buyer of nitrogen fertilizer and they prefer urea. This past week India finally issued their first urea tender of 2025. It was expected to be issued from late January to the end of February. The nitrogen market-makers have been nervous and nitrogen retailers have been stressed the past few months waiting to see how much urea India would seek to buy and what price they would be willing to pay for it. That information is needed to

Tidbits Yesterday, May corn  futures contract made a new low at $4.42 for “the move” (meaning since the recent high was made at $5.18¾ on 19 February) and then closed higher for the day. Technicians call that a “key reversal” and regard it as a trend changer. While very encouraging, nothing is 100% in this business.     Jason Britt  is President of Central States Commodities. He wrote yesterday:   "Brazil’s corn better get more rain than this before the dry season actually st

Tidbits The Trump administration has urged oil and biofuels  producers to collaborate on a new biofuels policy to prevent political conflicts similar to those in his first term. This initiative has led to at least two meetings, including one hosted by the American Petroleum Institute. Key discussions included increasing the mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel from 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. Ethanol blending mandates are curren

Tidbits Corn was sharply lower yesterday because of the weekly ethanol report (see below) and the fear of Monday’s USDA acreage and inventory report as well as continued tariff rhetoric. New orders for durable goods in the U.S.  unexpectedly increased $2.7 billion or up 0.9% in February versus January following an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in January. The market expected February durable goods to be down 1%. Later this morning, we will get the U.S. GDP update. The market exp

Tidbits Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian  corn and bean production estimates by 1 million mts. He has corn at 122 (USDA 126) and beans 169 million mts (USDA 169).   The Brazilian Real gained 1.47% on the U.S. Dollar yesterday, which made Brazilian beans about 14¢ more expensive to foreign buyers than U.S. beans.   Karen Braun is Reuters News Service Global Agricultural reporter. She put these U.S. Planted Acres  estimated numbers together:

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23. Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, March

Highlights Pro Farmer released their U.S. planting projections  on Friday. They expect 3.5% more corn acres at 93.75 million acres and a 2.4% decrease in soybean acres to 85 million. Spring wheat acres are expected to be down while durum wheat may see a slight increase in plantings. They see total wheat at 45.5 million acres, down 1.5% from last year. Some other surveys showed estimates about 95.4 million of corn and 82.75 million of soybeans. The CHS outlook for U.S. spring

Tidbits Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney  asked for the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a snap federal election for 28 April. Another variable to deal with is the trade and tariff debate.   Mike Lee is a British agronomist who works in the Black Sea  area, “The Breadbasket of the World.” We have exchanged some information with Mike for more than 20 years. Here is a 4-minute audio discussing the wheat crop condition in that area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4_kHc

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,985, +497.16points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $68.29, +1.10. Dollar Index  settled at 104.15, +0.41. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,643, -26 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.64¼, +5¾¢ for the week. December futures at $4.51, steady for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May f

2025 Soybean Market Plan: Specific Reasons and Steps The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% of each calendar year’s price range: 2024 — 83        2023 — 65 2022 — 43 2021 — 31     The number of days that November soybeans traded into the top 25% year’s price range after 21 June: 2024 — 0        2023 — 37 2022 — 3 2021 — 8

Highlights Eduardo Vanin of AgrInvest Commodities in Brazil about the U.S. corn  outlook written Wednesday afternoon: "The short-term fundamentals of American corn are still positive. American corn is the most competitive in most destinations. The market is no longer looking at this, but at the increase in supply for the 2025-26 season. This week, corn offered by the PNW gained two more tenders in South Korea. Sales should continue to be good, but some factors are starting to

Highlights Crude oil  was higher yesterday in past because of this press release yesterday morning from the U.S. Treasury : Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating a “teapot” oil refinery and its chief executive officer for purchasing and refining hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude oil, including from vessels linked to the Foreign Terrorist Organization, Ansarallah, commonly known as the Houthis, and

Tidbits Federal Reserve  Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday afternoon interest rates will not be changed this month, but he weighed in on the state of the US economy. His outlook was not reassuring, which was not a surprise knowing he hates Trump. Powell said Trump’s policies are one reason why inflation is reigniting. Powell said the Fed sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy and noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. Pow

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, March 18 , 2025: May corn settled yesterday at $4.58¾, -11½¢ since last Tuesday. Tue

Highlights Putin and Trump talked for more than 2 hours yesterday. Putin told Trump that a complete cessation of military aid to Kyiv is the key condition for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, according to TASS, the Russian news service. Putin also noted the serious risks associated with the non-agreement of Kiev, which has already repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached.   Putin has agreed to an initial "energy and infrastructure" ceasefire, to be followed

Tidbits President Trump and President Putin are scheduled to have a phone conversation this morning regarding the negotiations of a ceasefire and possibly the end to the Ukraine/Russia  war. The discussion will be centered on the allocation of assets, primarily of land and power plants that must be settled before a lasting peace can be maintained. Mark Carney was sworn in as the first new Canadian prime minister  in nine years on Friday. He visited the UK and France as his fi

Price of Crude Oil May Be Going Up Last week, the Iranian-backed Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off the coast of Yemen in response to Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. The Houthis' warning affected the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea.   President Trump ordered a series of airstrikes on the Houthi-held areas in Yemen on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until Iranian-backed Houthi r

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,488, -1,313.53 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $67.19, +0.14. Dollar Index  settled at 103.74, -0.17. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,669, +269 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.58½, -10¾¢ for the week. December futures at $4.51, -3¼¢ for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over Ma

World corn supplies are smaller compared to usage than they have been for at least 8 years and significantly tighter than they were in 2022 when July corn traded to $8.24 on 29 April 2022 and December corn traded to $7.66 on 16 May 2022.   The U.S. corn carryover in April of 2022 was projected by USDA to be 35 days’ worth of use. The world carryover that month was projected to be a 93 day supply.           When the 2022-23 marketing year numbers were all settled two years lat

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of 218,604 mts of old crop corn to unknown and 20,000 mts of old crop soybean oil to unknown.   Karen Braun , Global Ag Analyst and Reporter for Reuters News Service reported the following on Thursday: "According to its own statistics agency, CONAB, Brazil’s corn supplies, as of a few weeks ago, hit the lowest level in at least 25 years.   But the USDA does not expect a scenario like that to unfold until early next year.