Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Tidbits China purchased earlier this week one Panamax load of 60,000 mts of soft white wheat and another 60,000 mts of spring wheat according to traders in the export business, as Reuters reported yesterday. Delivery will be in December. “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of an event” is a fancy way to say, “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.” The rumor the past two weeks was China will buy U.S. wheat. That rumor had Soft Red Winter Wheat

Tidbits Corn: There were multiple reports that farmer sales of corn increased yesterday. December corn has tested the 200 day moving average 2 of the last 5 days. That moving average line is at $4.36½ today. Dec corn has been below the 200 day moving average since 6 June. So it is major technical resistance! We do expect corn and beans to weaken in the coming days because Friday next week is the first S&D from USDA in two months. Shutdown: Reportedly 8 Democrat senators have

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change

Tidbits The price of U.S. beans at the Gulf plus freight to China was $496 per mt on Friday, while beans from Brazil plus freight to China were $494. Monday evening, Gulf beans plus freight to China were $510 and Brazil beans were $492. China reportedly bought seven Panamax shiploads of U.S. soybeans last week, the first U.S. beans to China this year. Over the weekend, China bought 20 shiploads of beans from Brazil. Thus, China has bought about 420,000 mts of U.S. beans and h

Tidbits China bought 20 shiploads of Brazil’s soybeans over the weekend. Bloomberg reported that China is seeking U.S. wheat offers for December through February shipment. That supported corn yesterday. The U.S. will suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting November 10 as part of deescalating maritime tensions, Bloomberg reports. The White House says the pause of measures aimed at countering China’s shipping dominance will last one year while the U.S. n

Tidbits Crude oil: Yesterday OPEC+ agreed to maintain its 137,000 million barrels per day oil production increase for December, but decided to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026. Trump said late Thursday Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum are working to finalize an agreement that would see China make a “very large transaction” of Alaskan oil and gas. Ukraine: CNN reported that the Pentagon has approved the

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,563, +356 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $60.88, -0.56. Dollar Index settled at 99.72, +0.78. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,966, -25. Corn December futures settled at $4.31½, +8¼¢ for the week

Soybeans Market & Risk Management There are three primary reasons farmers sell corn, wheat, and beans when they do. The most common reason is farmers sell grain when they need the money. Since most farmers need money about the same time, that is why the lows are made as farmers sell about three-fourths of their grain in the bottom fourth of the year's price range. The second reason farmers sell grain is because the price is profitable, so they sell some grain and hold bac

Tidbits Soybean export: CHS reports that China bought at least four cargoes of soybeans on Friday. Shipments are scheduled for December and January and will originate from both the PNW and the Gulf. A trader with “inside” connections says the USDA has 20 million mts of soybean exports to China plugged into the S&D for this marketing year. If so, the China deal will not result in an increase in exports on the next USDA S&D. OPEC will meet tomorrow to discuss December produ

Tidbits The government shutdown has reached day 30, approaching the record. The longest shutdown in U.S. history of 35 days occurred during Donald Trump's first presidency in 2019. The ongoing one has already cost the U.S. economy $7-14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Medicine: Farmers and ranchers could face a major premium hike as expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. Wi

Tidbits The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes. At the start of the talks, Trump stated that Beijing and Washington had already reached agreement on many issues and would continue this work during the summit. Following the talks, Trump headed straight to his special plane without making a joint statement. Trump’s comments on board Air Force One were the first we got on how these talks progressed. There has been no official statemen

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the sales size or add

Tidbits We have added pricing comments for soybeans & fuel to the Weekly Summary & Recommendations, make sure to take a look. U.S.-China: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Thursday in Asia. That means they will talk while Americans are sleeping. The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. and China have agreed to reduce port fees on vessels over 80,000 mts, which was a major point of contention. Most grain is shipped in Panamax vessels which gross 55,000

Tidbits December oats settled 12 cents lower Monday. Oats are a feed grain and so is corn. Oats knows! Сrop progress estimates were released by Reuters as of 10/26/25: the corn harvest is estimated at 72% with a range of 67-80%, soybean harvest at 84% complete with a range of 80-88%, and winter wheat planting 84% complete with a range of 81-89%. Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates unchanged at 181 bpa and 52 bpa respectively. He projects the

Tidbits Tariffs: Yesterday, President Trump signed trade deals with Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Tariffs on most of their exports to the U.S. will remain at 19%. Thailand and Malaysia will increase exports of rare earth minerals to the U.S. while allowing increased access of U.S. products to all three countries' markets. At the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, President Lula of Brazil and Trump talked for nearly an hour yesterday and indicat

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 47,207, +1,017 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $61.44, +3.80. Dollar Index settled at 98.94, +0.40. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 1,991, -78. Corn December futures settled at $4.23¼, +¾¢ for the week. Basis (Z = December; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over Dec futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price

Tidbits Tariffs & Trade: President Trump announced yesterday that he will increase tariffs on Canada by 10% after he accused the provincial government of Ontario of producing an ad campaign that misrepresented former President Reagan’s speech on tariffs. The ad campaign, which aired during the World Series games in Toronto Friday evening, Trump said was aimed to influence the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearing on his administration’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford agre

Tidbits Venezuela: The Pentagon announced yesterday the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford with its Strike Group has been ordered to Latin America to target drug trafficking organizations, marking a significant increase of the U.S. military buildup in the Latin American region. U.S. Economy: Markets have priced-in nearly a 99% probability the Federal Reserve will reduce the Fed Fund interest rate 25 basis points (a quarter of a percent) next week, with similar odds for a

Tidbits Chinese and U.S. officials will be meeting this weekend to prepare the agenda for next Thursday’s meeting of Trump and Xi to discuss “important issues”. Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that the Chinese oil majors have suspended purchases of Russian oil due to the U.S. sanctions. It seems like questionable news, because yesterday, commenting on U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated at a briefing that

Tidbits Yesterday, November bean futures were up 4¢, January beans were up 1½, March beans were down ¼, and May beans were down ¾¢. Corn and wheat had similar action, but not as pronounced. Meaning the spread is going up and that is bullish market action. With November soybean deliveries beginning 8 days, it looks like the big grain companies want soybean deliveries. The FSA reportedly will reopen offices today to process ARC/PLC payments, farm loans, and disaster programs. H