BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights S&P Global published their estimates for US spring planting intentions for corn and beans. We added the past three years: Corn: 93.5 million acres, 90.6(2024), 94.6(2023), 88.2(2022) Beans: 83.3 million acres, 87.1(2024), 83.6(2023), 87.5(2022)   Trump said no tariffs will be imposed until 1 February and then only on Canada and Mexico.   The dollar index has lost 2 full points the past two days because tariffs were postponed or cancelled.

Highlights President Donald Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday. A Trump administration official said Trump would issue a broad trade memo that stops short of immediate tariffs but directed federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China, Canada and Mexico. That news slammed the U.S. dollar lower by 1.28 and gave world stock markets a boost on Monday. The World Economic Forum was founded by Klaus Schwab 24 January 1971. It describes itself as a

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,479, +1,540.38 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $78.04, -0.78. Dollar Index  settled at 109.41, -0.55. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 987, -106 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.84¼, +7¾¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pr

Highlights Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday: "Soybean (export)  lineup to China. Shipments in the last 4 weeks at 4.5 million mts and nominations (export sales not shipped) at 4.7 million mts. Both numbers are too low. Soybean stocks in China will drop fast. Add to this the very slow harvest in Brz. Soybean auctions demand will jump."   AgRural claims it is an independent, privately owned Brazilian agricultural consultancy established in Curitiba, Paraná, since 1996. It provi

Highlights The CBOT ag markets will not trade until 7 PM Monday evening due to MLK Day. Yesterday morning the European weather model  significantly reduced rainfall amounts for the next 10 days for Argentina. It had predicted 2½ to 3 inches (50-60 mm) before Friday morning's EUR model showed just a half to one inch (10-24 mm) in the Buenos Aires province which includes Salto, the sixth location on our rain day chart. It appears most (maybe all) other forecasters are sticking

Highlights The weather forecasters have come to the consensus there will be significant rainfall in the dry areas of South America starting this weekend. That is what last Monday’s ENSO update indicated with the rising water temperature and our rain day charts have been increasing the number of days with rain in the ten day forecast all week.   Uruguay borders Argentina to its west and southwest, Brazil to its north and northeast while bordering the Río de la Plata to the sou

Highlights NOPA crush  in December was 206.604 million bushels, up 7% from November and up 6% from a year ago. This is the largest monthly NOPA crush ever recorded. New crush records have been set in the past four months and 10 of the past 12 months. The range of expectations were 202.0 and 209.5 million bushels, with the average of 205.5. Soy oil stocks were 1.236 billion pounds, up from 1.084 billion last month, but 17 million pounds less than expected. Soy oil inventory is

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 14 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.74½, +16½¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights Weather in Argentina is the single most important factor for the price of soybeans from now until the rains start. Argentina’s crop areas saw mostly 100°F (38°C) or higher yesterday as the debate about when the showers will start became the number one topic for the bean market. There is no consensus when the showers will come, but there are plenty of opinions and conflicting forecasts.   Reuter’s World Agriculture Reporter Karen Braun issued this report after the

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,938, -768.11 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $78.82, +5.36. Dollar Index  settled at 109.96, +1.78. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,093, +50 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.76½, +25¾¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pr

Highlights We really do not have a logical explanation why soybeans futures are up 68¢ the past 3 trading days and up $1.06 the past 15 trading days.     South America most likely will harvest the largest crop they have ever harvested. The world carryover is a 116 day supply; it is truly a burden for $10.50 futures. Last year’s world carryover was a 107 day supply and you well remember what a painful experience $9.52 soybean futures were last August. The dollar index was 100.

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.”   We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon:  The U.S. Treasury today relea

Highlights It is very important to understand Friday’s price gains  for corn and beans were based upon production cuts, not demand increases. While there will be increases in demand in the coming months, the production cuts for 2024 U.S. crops are behind us and there will be no more production adjustments until possibly some minor adjustment in September, after the marketing year is over.    Brazilian grain trader, Eduardo Vanin, Friday evening reported exporters were booking

Highlights The market reaction to the USDA numbers was bullish for corn and beans. Corn should have been stronger than it was given as the 2024 corn yield was reduced 3.8 bushels per acre.      The USDA pretty much admitted they do not know what they are doing or that they had been lying to us about the corn and soybean inventory.   USDA added 200,000 acres of corn harvested, but cut the yield by a whopping 3.8 bushels to 179.3. The lowest trade yield guess was 181.3.   The b

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat     45 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +13 January beans +23 March...

Market Comment Today at 11 AM Central, the USDA will release its January U.S. and World S&D, the Quarterly Grain Inventory Report for US commodities as of 1 December 2024 and U.S. winter wheat actual plantings. The market expects U.S. 2024 corn yield to be reduced by a half bushel and the soybean bean yield reduced by a tenth of a bushel. Corn carryover might be decreased due to higher ethanol usage and lower production. Soy oil exports will likely see an increase.   We expec

Due to a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, equity and stock option markets will be closed today. Agricultural futures markets will close early at 12:15 pm CDT today and re-open this evening at normal times. Highlights As you know, we have been encouraging you soybean owners to get your beans sold by 12 January. That recommendation has nothing to do with tomorrow’s USDA world S&D. The soybean sale recommendation is based on the historical fact that wh

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 7 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.58, -½¢ since last Tuesday. Tue

Highlights Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time. The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the f