BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Crude oil  futures lost a dollar Thursday morning and closed about 40¢ lower after President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production to lower energy costs. That statement unnerved traders despite Trump also said sanctions would be enforced and new sanctions applied that would eventually drop Iran’s crude oil exports to zero. Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, up from 1.4 in 2023 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2022. With cru

Highlights China’s government and financial sectors returned to work yesterday after the Lunar New Year holiday. Equity and commodity trading was remarkably calm given all the tariff talk, but the yuan was weak. That most likely comes from the consensus that China’s economy is wounded by weak financial, perhaps an unstable political situation and cannot battle Trump nearly as strongly as it did during his first term. All of Asia remains fixated on China and its next response

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, February 4 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.94½, +9¼¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights A 10% tariff  on Chinese imports into the U.S. went into effect yesterday. China said it will retaliate with a 15% tariff on U.S. coal, liquefied natural gas, a 10% tariff on crude oil, agriculture machinery, and pickup trucks. The volume of U.S. agricultural machinery exports to China is about $1 billion per year, the main exporter is the state of Iowa, with which China has established ties. Currently, Chinese tariffs affect 2-3% of total U.S. exports.   Note that

Tidbits Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Panama  and met with the President yesterday. Rubio presented him with an ultimatum regarding the Panama Canal: President Trump has determined that “The current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal,” according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce.   “Absent immediate changes regarding Chinese influence, the US will take measures necessary to pr

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,545, +120.41 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $73.81, -0.79. Dollar Index  settled at 108.5, +1.03. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 735, -43 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.82, -4½¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)

Highlights Canada is taking similar measures in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 25%  tariffs on its goods, Canadian Prime...

Highlights Despite many rumors and some “reports” Friday to the contrary, the White House confirmed in a press briefing tariffs  they will go into effect today. The Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, "The President will be implementing tomorrow, 25% tariffs on Mexico, 25% tariffs on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China for the illegal fentanyl that they sourced and allowed to distribute into our country which has killed tens of millions of Americans."   President Donald Tr

Highlights The weather forecast has rain coming to the dry areas of South America a day sooner next week than expected yesterday, but the wet area looks less likely to dry out, but rainfall amounts are reduced. Thirty minutes before Wall Street closed yesterday, Trump said Saturday would be tariff decision  day. Trump added he’s still mulling whether the tariffs will hit oil too. “We may or may not, we’re going to make that determination probably tonight based on oil prices”.

Highlights 247AG weather predicts South American weather will be wet in the north, where they do not want it and dry in the south where they do want wet weather until next Thursday when the following 7 days will be the opposite. This forecast by several weather outfits is what rallied corn and beans the past two days, but probably by tomorrow, the market will trade next week's expected change of weather. Argentina’s thirsty crops will get some water, but that forecast is very

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 28 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.85¼, -4¾¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights As of Tuesday afternoon, the weather model  runs are showing the return of a wet pattern for Northern Brazil and dryer weather for Argentina and RGDS (South Brazil) for the 6-15 day range. That means more delay for the harvest of soybeans in the northern areas of Brazil, later safrinha corn planting and smaller Argentine crops.   Kory Melby said yesterday the second crop corn planting pace in Brazil’s Mato Grosso is the slowest since 2011 but similar to 2021. The 2

Highlights Colombia’s President Petro late Sunday agreed to all of President Trump’s terms on the deportation of migrants. Colombia is a top 5 buyer of U.S. corn and soybean meal while the U.S. is Colombia’s number one trading partner and buys nearly one-third of Colombia’s total exports. Colombia sends crude oil, gold, bananas, fresh-cut flowers, and more than one-quarter of US coffee imports come from Colombia. U.S. tech stocks  were sharply lower yesterday, after Chinese A

Highlights Former Minnesota farmer turned Brazil all-around ag consultant Kory Melby commented Saturday afternoon on X: “These numbers will increase a lot by next Friday, however, MT (Mato Grosso)  soy harvest at 4.2% vs 21% (a year ago) , MT cotton planting 29% vs 77% and corn planting at 1% vs 11%. Cotton is now out of the ideal  (planting)  window and corn has 1 month  (before the ideal planting window closes) . Next 30 days are mega important for 2nd corn."   If Kory is c

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,424, +945.42 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $74.6, -3.44. Dollar Index  settled at 107.47, -1.94. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 778, -209 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.86½, +2¼¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price

Brooke Rollins is President Trump's pick to lead USDA. She is 52 years old, grew up on a Texas farm, graduated with honors from Texas A&M with a B.S. in Agriculture Development. She was the first woman to be elected A&M student body president and served as the speaker pro tempore of the A&M Student Senate, the chair of the Texas A&M Judicial Court, as a Fish Camp counselor, and was Cotton Bowl Classic Queen. In 2007, Rollins became the first female speaker at the College Stat

Tidbits / Market Comment When it comes to marketing grain and oil seeds,  you are living in historic times. Never have we had so many variables, any one of which could send the market sharply higher or lower.   Your market plan needs to include  risk management , which requires some mental time and maybe money.   Soybeans have the potential to drop a dollar or more. Now that the 45Z decision has been delayed for as many as 60 days, the upside potential for beans depends on ho

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina  continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts,

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Rumors are floating that China needs to buy corn. The U.S. is the only place to buy shiploads of corn until June. Three months ago, China said it harvested its biggest crop of corn last summer despite three typhoons moving across much of their corn growing area in July and August.   Early yesterday China halted soybean imports from five Brazilian companies because cargoes did no

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 21 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.90, +15½¢ since last Tuesday.