BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits China  bought a weekly record 60 ship loads of Brazil’s soybeans  this past week, boosted by robust farmer sales and better profit margins of China crushers. More than 5.2 million mts were sold.   Corporate China spent years living by the 996 rule: work 9 AM to 9 PM six days a week. Now, companies are beginning to ease off because of the potential loss of the American markets.   A highly unusual personnel move in the upper ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ha

Highlights The U.S. Dollar Index  closed yesterday at the lowest level since April 2022. A lower dollar makes U.S. products more competitive in the world marketplace.   The 12 month U.S. Producer Price Index  (PPI) was reported yesterday morning at 2.7% versus 3.2% the previous month; the market expected 3.3%. For the month of March, the PPI was a negative 0.4%, versus +0.1% in February; the market expected +0.2% for March. PPI is the measure of inflation at the wholesale lev

Highlights The biggest news piece from yesterday’s S&D was the USDA increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. As many expected, the corn for feed was reduced by 25 million bushels, so the carryout was reduced by 75 million bushels, which took the carryout from a 37 day supply to a 35 day supply. The market expected a 30 million bushel reduction in the corn carryout. USDA did not change any of the corn or soybean production numbers for Brazil, Argentina, or Paraguay. Stud

The numbers were: Friendly to Bullish Corn Friendly Soybeans Negative U.S. Wheat  Neutral World Wheat    20 Minutes After the Report: May...

Highlights China has responded to Donald Trump's trade tariffs by raising duties on U.S. goods by from 34% to 84% and by appealing to the...

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23.Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, April 8

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 240,000 mts of old crop corn to Spain. In February, U.S. agricultural trade deficit showed slight improvement, with exports decreasing to $13.59 billion (a drop of $830 million from January) and imports falling more sharply to $17.86 billion (down $2.81 billion). This reduction narrowed the monthly trade deficit to $4.27 billion, an improvement from January's record deficit of $6.25 billion. USDA projects 2025 financia

Highlights On 2 April, Trump applied an additional 34% reciprocal tariffs on China  added to the existing 20% duties already applied to Chinese imports. Together, they bring the total tariff rate to 54%, affecting nearly $600 billion in annual trade to combat currency manipulation, dumping (selling below the cost of production) of industrial products, and a host of other lesser offenses. China responded over the weekend with a series of countermeasures, including tighter expo

Highlights The European Commission will meet today to prepare a list of U.S. products to slap additional tariff fees in response to Trump's tariffs . Insiders say the list includes meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. The Commission has threatened a 50% tariff on U.S. bourbon which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% counter-tariff on EU alcoholic drinks.   David Perdue is President Trump’s nominee for ambassador to

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 38,315, -3,269 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $62.32, -6.72. Dollar Index  settled at 102.89, -1.12. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,489, -113 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.60¼, +7¢ for the week. December futures at $4.46¾, +4¼¢ for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May fu

The primary purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to promote fair and free global trade by developing international trade rules, resolving disputes, and facilitating negotiations and discussions on trade matters, ultimately aiming to improve global living standards and foster sustainable development. The WTO was formed in 1995 and replaced the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs, aka GATT.   The WTO accomplishes its mission by: Administering Trade Agreements,

Tidbits At 5 AM Central yesterday morning, China announced an additional 34% tariff  on all U.S. products beginning 10 April and Reuters reported China halted poultry products imports from two unnamed American companies. China added five other countermeasures that do not appear to be ag related. Corn, beans, and wheat dropped dramatically in the 30 minutes after the news was released while us peon market watchers wondered what happened.     Corn fully recovered and settled hi

Tidbits OPEC+  is reversing its production cuts with output set to rise by more than expected in May because they see continuing healthy market fundamentals. After cutting their oil production for more than a year, OPEC+ will add 411,000 barrels per day in May. The larger-than-expected production boost by OPEC+ added to the tariff-fueled recession fears to sink oil prices more than $5 per barrel yesterday. The White House stated U.S. imports of oil, gas, and refined products

Highlights Trump Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden of the White House at a press conference 4 to 5 PM Eastern Time yesterday applied to 180 countries. The list below was identified as the greatest offenders. Note that Mexico and Canada are not on the list: Regarding Canada and Mexico, Trump’s Executive order stated, in part:     “With respect to articles from Canada and Mexico, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We discussed 2025 corn and soybeans marketing plan  on March 23.Refer to our daily mailing on that day or this post  on the website. Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, April 1

Tidbits Today is when President Trump said his tariffs on various imported products from multiple countries will be announced. The market has probably overestimated the impact of these tariffs.     Yesterday, the USDA reported total crush for February after the CBOT closed. The corn crush was 465 million bushels, down 6% from a year ago; corn crushed for ethanol was 421 million bushels, down 5%. The soybean crush was 189 million bushels, 2% less than a year ago. The canola cr

Highlights Often we have written and said: “The expectation of an event will move the market more than confirmation of that event.”  Yesterday’s market action demonstrated that axiom. For two months, the endless talk has been about many more corn acres and fewer bean acres. That is exactly what the USDA reported. Corn acres were up 5% from 2024, while soybean area was 4% lower. Corn closed higher in most contracts yesterday and beans were down 8 to 9¢.

The reports were: Neutral to Friendly Old Crop Corn Negative New Crop Corn Neutral Soybeans Friendly Wheat 20 Minutes After the Report:...

Highlights At 11 AM Central Time today, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks on All Position Report as of 1 March and Intended Plantings Report.  From a grain market standpoint, this is the second most important report of the year. Only the June Quarterly Stocks and Actual Plantings Reports are more important than today’s reports.     Gary asked: "I am somewhat confused about the ADM corn survey you sent Sunday morning. Carryover down 198 (million bushels) from last yea

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,584, -401.45 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $69.04, +0.75. Dollar Index  settled at 104.01, -0.14. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,602, -41 for the week. Corn May futures  at $4.53¼, -11¢ for the week. December futures at $4.42½, -8½¢ for the week. Basis   (K = May; e.g. 10K means 10¢ over May f