BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Yesterday’s Cattle on Feed numbers as a percent of a year ago:   On Feed: 100.9% expected, actual 101% Placements: 106.2% expected, actual 110%   Fed Marketings: 103.9% expected, actual 103%   Yesterday’s USDA Chickens and Eggs Report (% compared to a year ago): USA egg production in February was up 5% from last year from 1% fewer hens (377 million). Egg-type Chicks Hatched Up 7%. Egg-type eggs in incubators on March 1, 2024, up 5%. Egg-type pullet chicks up 3%. Broil

Highlights Front month corn and beans settled slightly higher yesterday after trading modestly lower most of the day and after a key reversal on Tuesday. From a technical perspective, a positive development.    The US Census Bureau is the final word on all numbers and today the Census Bureau will report the December crush numbers. October 2023 was the largest monthly soy crush ever for the USA at 201 mil bu, but the market expects the December soy crush will be 206.1 mil. bu.

Highlights Early yesterday morning there was a hint that Brazil’s weather forecast beginning January 1st was turning a bit drier. Yesterday morning, BAM Weather Guy Kirk Hinz posted on Twitter: "Going Drier vs. Data into Jan - making my latest SA ag weather video public today - give it a watch/listen! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyutNKgQsVQ   Once again, data is wet for Central Brazil for the month ahead, once again the atmospheric ingredients do not agree.   I think Jan

Highlights A tow of barges ran aground near Vicksburg, Mississippi yesterday; navigation is closed until the tow is freed. Russia reported yesterday no progress has been made on the grain corridor and no talks about the subject have been scheduled. It was reported yesterday the Resilient Africa , carrying ~3,300 mts of wheat left Tuesday and on Thursday, the Aroyat , with ~17,600 mts of wheat left the Ukrainian Port of Chornomorsk. No reports of hostile action so far. Ukrai

Highlights Russia attacked the two primary grain terminals of Ukraine for the fourth night in a row. The governor of Odessa said that two people were killed, 100 tons of dried peas and 20 tons of barley were destroyed. White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Russia is currently placing sea mines at the entrances to Ukrainian ports and targeting civilian ships carrying food to and from the region. There are rumors that truckers in Br

Highlights The Corn Belt is expected to get some scattered showers off and on next week. It looks like everyone should get at least a half inch. If actual rainfall comes as predicted, for most of you it will be nice, but it will not make the corn crop. Throw-in July options expired yesterday, the markets were over-bought (too high, too fast), and it was the end of a week, profit-taking was the order of the day. We still have a week before July arrives. We are a very long way

Highlights Just before midday yesterday, negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling broke off, which pretty much sent all markets around the world lower except gold and silver, the traditional place to park money when the end of civilization is approaching. The issue is the House Republicans want no spending increase as part of the increased debt ceiling deal and Democrats say no way will they ever agree to that. The House of Representatives is the only government body whic

About pricing under breakeven From Kyle (and much the same from many folks yesterday midday): "Do I contract new crop at a price under my breakeven? I know... I hate to even ask it. I recently talked with a local grain buyer who is now retired and out of the game, so he has no skin in it anymore. He said he would sell all old crop and contract 50% new crop at today’s price. I said "well that's under my breakeven..." His reasoning was Brazil has a stellar crop (every 1 bu los

Highlights Inspections of ships carrying grain from Ukraine resumed after two days of hassle. Russia's Ag Ministry sees Russian 2023 wheat production at 78 million mt, ~9 million mt less than SovEcon (Andrey Sizov) projected yesterday. China will auction-off another 1.5 million bushels of its state reserves of imported wheat on April 26 to keep a lid on domestic prices. China always replenishes its government reserves with imports. Some showers were added to the forecast f

Tidbits Swedish investigators have found traces of explosives at the site of the damaged Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, confirming sabotage ruptured the pipeline in three places. But who? The two largest rail worker unions are expected to conclude voting this weekend on a labor deal brokered by the White House. Possible strike midnight December 4th. China hog prices are rising rapidly, suggesting supplies have fallen and/or demand is increasing rapidly. That means more po

Highlights Did you notice that yesterday morning’s weekly export sales chart we sent you showed last week’s corn export sales were near the top end of the range of estimates and soybean sales were well above the top of the range? Those who say demand for corn and beans is poor do not know what they are talking about. Soybean meal sales in China have jumped this week. The 5 day moving average was 90,000 mt per day a week ago and now it is 260,000 mt per day. Nope, no demand

Highlights Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 228,606 mts of new crop soybeans to Mexico. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will be released today, so gloom and doom for the USA and world economy was the order of the day the past two days. Better weather forecasts for US and EU crops; grain in Ukraine continues to be loaded on vessels for export shipment led to a second day of sharp losses at the CBOT.

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