BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits A federal appeals court  granted a Trump administration request yesterday to reinstate the tariffs  struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday ruling President Trump overstepped his authority when he cited the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as justification for levying tariffs. The IEEPA authorizes the President to act when an unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States, originating in whole or substantial par

Tidbits Pro Farmer reports: Some yield concerns  are cropping up in Brazil , with some later-planted safrinha corn facing an increased stress in drier biased areas, most notably in center-west areas.   For anyone watching our daily rain day charts that is no surprise. The first three locations are Brazil’s safrinha corn area and the dry season clearly started the first week in May. The dry season usually means no rain. Imagine what a corn field looks like if planted in sandy

Tidbits From 19 February to 28 April, July corn lost 10¢ versus December corn. From 28 April to 13 May, the spread of July corn to December lost another 31½ cents! Yesterday, July corn gained 3½¢ on December corn, which is a huge change in direction.   From harvest until deep into the spring, when old crop prices lose on new crop prices, that is a bearish indicator, even in an up market. The opposite is also true. We should have shown more respect for what that spread was tel

Tidbits U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday morning the U.S. economy  contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Imports increased 41.3% which reduces GDP as the domestic economy does not produce imports. GDP is the measure of the value of all goods and services produced, not imported.  Many companies went on a purchasing spree in the first quarter to avoid the potential price increases caused by tariffs. First quarter contraction was a sharp reversal from

Tidbits StoneX’s fertilizer guy, Josh Linville, reports NOLA urea values have hit $450 for the first time since the end of 2022. For reference, 2022 ended with December corn prices at $6.00.   South Korean flour mills bought 50,000 mts of milling wheat  from the U.S.   Jordan has issued a tender to buy up to 120,000 mts of milling wheat. The S&P Global Composite (services and manufacturing) Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) for the U.S. was reported at 51.2, down from last mo

Tidbits There was some progress with China yesterday. China stated it wants to see a number of steps from Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to  trade talks , including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump's cabinet. China’s leadership wants the U.S. to appoint a point person for talks with China’s top trade negotiator. California on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to block U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs

Highlights China has responded to Donald Trump's trade tariffs by raising duties on U.S. goods by from 34% to 84% and by appealing to the...

Highlights Trump Tariffs announced in the Rose Garden of the White House at a press conference 4 to 5 PM Eastern Time yesterday applied to 180 countries. The list below was identified as the greatest offenders. Note that Mexico and Canada are not on the list: Regarding Canada and Mexico, Trump’s Executive order stated, in part:     “With respect to articles from Canada and Mexico, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from

Tidbits Corn was sharply lower yesterday because of the weekly ethanol report (see below) and the fear of Monday’s USDA acreage and inventory report as well as continued tariff rhetoric. New orders for durable goods in the U.S.  unexpectedly increased $2.7 billion or up 0.9% in February versus January following an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in January. The market expected February durable goods to be down 1%. Later this morning, we will get the U.S. GDP update. The market exp

Tidbits Federal Reserve  Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday afternoon interest rates will not be changed this month, but he weighed in on the state of the US economy. His outlook was not reassuring, which was not a surprise knowing he hates Trump. Powell said Trump’s policies are one reason why inflation is reigniting. Powell said the Fed sharply reduced its 2025 growth projection for the U.S. economy and noted that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. Pow

Highlights Corn deliveries on March futures have been zero since 7 March, so a search for a reason for yesterday’s 14¢ loss on May corn by late morning found no fundamental reason other than the price of eggs had fallen from $8.17 earlier this month to $5.51 yesterday according to the USDA, which reported the egg inventory increased 5.2% the past week. A bit later, we learned ethanol production was down 31,000 barrels per day from last week, but still above 1.06 million barre

Tidbits U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said President Trump is in constant contact with both Mexico and Canadian officials regarding a possible agreement that would pull the 25% tariffs applied on Tuesday. He said Mexico's team was cooperating; Canada's team not so much.    On Tuesday, the stock markets and crude oil market crashed, in large part, due to a GDP forecasting model used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The dollar is now 104.25 on the index, down

Highlights First thing this morning the USDA will release its projections for 2025  crops and that includes the S&D with acres planted, yields, and price projections. The average estimate for tomorrow’s acreage numbers are 93.6 million for corn, 84.4 million for soybeans, and 46.7 million for wheat. Drew Learner, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist at World Weather expects drier than normal weather for Brazil’s safrinha corn:   “While monsoon precipitation is expected to prevai

Tidbits The price of April urea futures  at NOLA has declined $22 per ton since 12 February.      AgFeeds.com/br  reports: "After much complaint and pressure from the productive sector, the federal government found a way to unlock the financing of the 2024/2025 Safra Plan with subsidized credit lines which had been closed Thursday, 20 February. Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced late Friday, 21 February, the opening of an extraordinary credit line of R$4 bill

Highlights March CBOT options expire today which usually means lower prices. The expected hot weather in Argentina this weekend sent soybeans higher yesterday, but not so much the corn. We think the faint rumors from the New York Times of a Trump trade deal with China boosted soybeans more than weather. Due to high prices, India cancelled the purchase of 70,000 mts of Malaysian palm oil which had been scheduled for delivery March through June. Sunflower oil futures rose above

Agriculture futures markets are closed Monday, President’s Day. Highlights Was yesterday’s soybean action  the signal that the market has started to believe the monster soybean crop in Brazil will get harvested? Or was it the tariff threats, the possibility the war in Eastern Europe will soon come to an end, or the sharply lower crude oil reducing the value of bean oil, or something else? In any case, March beans traded lower than any day since 17 January. During the course o

Highlights China’s government and financial sectors returned to work yesterday after the Lunar New Year holiday. Equity and commodity trading was remarkably calm given all the tariff talk, but the yuan was weak. That most likely comes from the consensus that China’s economy is wounded by weak financial, perhaps an unstable political situation and cannot battle Trump nearly as strongly as it did during his first term. All of Asia remains fixated on China and its next response

Highlights 247AG weather predicts South American weather will be wet in the north, where they do not want it and dry in the south where they do want wet weather until next Thursday when the following 7 days will be the opposite. This forecast by several weather outfits is what rallied corn and beans the past two days, but probably by tomorrow, the market will trade next week's expected change of weather. Argentina’s thirsty crops will get some water, but that forecast is very

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina  continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts,

Highlights NOPA crush  in December was 206.604 million bushels, up 7% from November and up 6% from a year ago. This is the largest monthly NOPA crush ever recorded. New crush records have been set in the past four months and 10 of the past 12 months. The range of expectations were 202.0 and 209.5 million bushels, with the average of 205.5. Soy oil stocks were 1.236 billion pounds, up from 1.084 billion last month, but 17 million pounds less than expected. Soy oil inventory is