Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Highlights Vegetable oil (palm, soybean, canola, sunflower, and five more) prices are now directly tied to the price of crude oil because of the growing use of biofuels. Oilseed producers need to track the fundamentals and technical factors of crude oil to improve marketing of oilseeds. Low sulfur distillate stocks (heating oil and diesel fuel) are down 14% from the previous year, and more bean oil will be needed to stretch diesel supplies. Brazil’s President-elect Lula's tra

Highlights Everyone except a few people in Ukraine’s government, agree Russia did not attack Poland. But the Biden Administration issued the following statement yesterday mid-day: Regardless of the outcome of the investigation into the incident, it is clear that Russia is ultimately responsible for this tragic incident, which fired missiles specifically designed to hit civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. USDA reported yesterday morning the sale of: 150,000 mts of hard red sp

Highlights The USDA numbers were very neutral. There were no changes to the national average prices expected to be paid to farmers for corn, wheat or soybeans. The USDA did not reduce corn exports and did not raise Russian wheat production. Big surprise! The UN is negotiating a year long deal for the export of Ukrainian grain and the market actually thinks it will happen and speculators are selling wheat. Big mistake! Russia said it is withdrawing troops from west of the D

Highlights Lloyd's of London insurer, Ascot, is once again quoting cargo insurance for the Black Sea grain corridor, their lead underwriter said on Wednesday. Unconfirmed report is China will relax its zero tolerance COVID policy beginning tomorrow. To what extent the relaxation will be was not stated. This is bullish crude oil, beans, bio fuels and thus corn. Tidbits As expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the fed fund interest rate 75 basis points (3/4%) for the f

Highlights A surprise for the day is water levels on the Lower Mississippi are actually higher than they were last week. Somebody must have opened some gates up stream last week. La Niña will take a break. Both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day weather forecasts predict above to much above normal rainfall from Indiana all the way to the West Coast. Consistent decent rainfall for two weeks will slow the last of the harvest, which will firm the basis and support futures price

Yield Report from Grand Forks County, Northeast North Dakota: "Best yielding beans, by far, I have ever grown. Yields are running 45 to 70 bushels." (State average 35 bushels) Thanks, Dexter Highlights A rumor late yesterday morning was Russia was close to agreeing to an extension of the Ukraine Grain Export corridor. That sent CBOT wheat from 12 cents higher to 12 cents lower. Tidbits Soybean crush futures made contract highs (again) yesterday. Vomitoxin in corn in the Easte

Highlights "Roger, some yield info for you. These numbers should cover a large area of at least southern and eastern Nebr., yields west are worse yet. I’ll just give you our data as I know its accurate. Dryland beans mostly 25-30, a couple fields touched 40 that were planted into wheat stubble. I have heard of a lot of beans in the teens, we no-till so that helps our yields. Irrigated beans 65-72, should be 72-85+. Dryland corn, first field- 78. Last year just across the ro

Highlights Carrol County, West Central Iowa Yield Report: I took a field of corn out. Average 235 dry. It was green snap and Goosenecked bad from July 5 storm. Slow going, but very happy with the yield. Thanks, Dan. Clark County, West Central Ohio where the weather has been very good most of the year: Early maturity beans on several farms running 62 to 67 bushels, about the same as full season beans. A 60+ year old neighbor thinks his corn and beans will be the best yieldi

Highlights The railroad unions will delay their strike vote until Sep 29 to allow more time for a settlement to be reached. Today the USDA will release 4 weeks or export sales information at 7:30 AM Central time. It could rattle the markets a bit. This is the first day it is legal to plant soybeans in the Central area of Brazil. The heart of that bean area is Rondonópolis, the first location on our daily ten day forecast. Farmers will not plant until they are convinced the

Highlights The city of Chengdu, China has extended its COVID lockdown indefinitely. The city of 21 million people has been on lockdown since September 1. That is negative for crude oil and, therefore, corn and beans because cheaper crude oil means cheaper gasoline and diesel which means cheaper ethanol and biodiesel. Avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in Ohio. Three million laying hens will be euthanized. We knew we would get bird flu somewhere this winter, but we s

Highlights USDA announced yesterday morning the sale of 396,000 mts of soybeans to unknown. Taiwan shot down a Chinese drone for the first time Wednesday. It was a “civilian” drone in Taiwan’s airspace. Escalation of tension between Taiwan and China is negative for beans and, to a lesser extent, corn, because the US militarily supports Taiwan. Anything that creates friction between those two countries increases the chances of soybean trade between the US and China. Note that

Highlights Black Sea grain market analyst, Andrey Sizov, is beginning to think the seasonal low in wheat prices is behind us. The Tech Guy thinks the $7.52 August 2nd low in September CBOT wheat will hold. Roger says better than a 50% chance it will be broken purely because corn farmers and corn elevators are desperate to get rid of wheat in their bins. The problem this time of year, as always, every corn and/or bean farmer and every grain handler in the Corn Belt are all tr

Highlights Yesterday morning, USDA announced the sale of 196,000 mts of new crop soybeans to China. Yesterday morning the government reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the measure of inflation at the retail level) was 8.5%, down from June’s 9.1%. The market expected 8.7%. Crude oil recovered its losses yesterday afternoon to settle higher on the news that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory had declined 5.3 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks were do

Highlights Two years ago today, December 2020 corn made its contract low at $3.20. It traded to $4.30 on November 30, 2020. That was the contract high. The USDA reported yesterday morning a sale of 135,000 mt of new crop soybean meal & cake to Poland. There were no deliveries assigned on August beans or oil, but 35 lots of bean meal were assigned and went to "strong hands". The oldest long positions are: Meal 18 July 2022 Oil 8 July 2022 Beans 24 February 2022

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Highlights At 10 AM Mountain Time today, the USDA will release its Actual Planted Acres, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Wheat Production Reports. Corn has sold off and beans have rallied going into today’s reports. The analysts expect about a half million more corn acres and a half million fewer beans than the March Intentions. However, based upon market action, the market expects about 2 to 2.5 million more corn acres and 1.5 to 2 million fewer bean acres. It will be very diffi

Highlights The Federal Reserve increased interest rates 75 basis points (0.75%) yesterday. It was 28 years ago since the Fed increased the interest rate that much. The 30 year home mortgage fixed rate is now 6.28%. The stock market rallied on the news as the market feels the Fed has finally gotten serious about controlling inflation. Fed Chairman Powell said more rate increases are coming in the next few months. He predicted the inflation rate will be back down to 2% in 202