BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Yesterday, Roger recommended you price 2023 fertilizer. He meant fertilizer for 2024 crops. Highlights Is the weather or the war more supportive of these markets? Does it matter? Wheat certainly gets an extra boost on the war news as the war is in “The Bread Basket of the World.” Russia took another swipe on Ukraine’s port of Odessa again Wednesday and will probably continue to do so. The Viterra and Kernel facilities were both bombed. Major damage was done. That news suppo

Highlights The U.S. corn conditions are 61% good/excellent, down 3% from last week and 1% worse than the market expected. The 5-year average for this week is 70% good/excellent. The soybean condition is 59% good/excellent, also down 3% for last week, but 1% better than the market expected. This is the worst bean crop rating for this week since 2008. See all the state summaries for all crops at grainstats.com According to AgRural Consultancy: Farmers in Brazil have harveste

Highlights U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling today, after a "productive" phone call Sunday as the president headed home from Japan. Staff members for both sides did meet Sunday afternoon. Biden said he would be willing to cut spending with tax adjustments to reach a deal, but the latest offer from Republicans ceiling was "unacceptable." Day time high temperatures in many areas of Asia continue to be e

Highlights If you grow a feed grain, this is very important: For all practical purposes, all the corn that Brazil exports is its second crop of corn, aka safrinha. It is planted after the soybean harvest in January and February. The number one factor to determine how much safrinha corn will yield is how mature it is when the dry season starts in May. Persistent rains since early December where 85% of Brazil’s soybeans are grown has produced a bean crop about 14 million mts

Monday is a holiday. CBOT trading will resume Monday evening at 7 PM Central. Highlights CF Industries is the world’s largest nitrogen...

Highlights The soybean fields of Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS), Brazil’s southern state, had temperatures 100 to 104°F (38 to 40°C) over the weekend with the next 7 days predicted to be above normal temperatures and below normal, but with some rainfall, the next few days. Up until late January, the market bought the baloney that any drought in Argentina and RGDS resulting in fewer beans would be more than offset by the above average rainfall in Northern Brazil. We

Highlights Nothing in yesterday's numbers changed our outlook for prices in 2023. On yesterday’s reports, USDA did: Reduced Argentina’s corn crop by 5 million mts to 47 million and left Brazil’s corn crop unchanged at 125 million mt, the net change was pretty much expected. Reduced Argentina’s soybean crop by 4.5 million mt to 41 million and left Brazil’s corn production unchanged at 153 million mt. Raised Australia’s old wheat crop 1.4 million mt, to a record 38 million,

Highlights Yesterday, Indonesia cancelled a high percentage, perhaps 80%, of the previously issued palm oil export permits for shipment from now into May. The deadly earthquake in Turkey and Syria will disrupt to some extent, perhaps a large extent, sunflower oil exports. The water level of the Mississippi River north of St. Louis has enabled barge lines to increase vessel drafts. More bushels per barge = lower barge freight = firmer basis upriver = higher cash price for you

Highlights Brazil’s soybean harvest starts in January and their corn export program ends at the end of January because they must switch their limited infrastructure to export soybeans. Right on cue, yesterday’s weekly export sales of corn were 1.593 million mt, almost 400,000 mts above the high end of expectations. It was the second largest weekly corn sales of the marketing year and, perhaps more important, China bought 319,000 mt. They had been buying record large tonnage f

Tidbits The real (ree-al) is the currency of Brazil. As its exchange rate strengthens in the world markets, it makes Brazilian exports more expensive, just like every country with a strong currency. And, just like every other country with their currency increasing in value, the market value of their exports must be reduced to be competitive in the world marketplace. Brazil's corn and soybean prices are declining as the exchange rate of the real rises. Farmers are not sellin

Highlights Rumors of big layoffs in the financial banking sectors mid-day yesterday at the same time JP Morgan told clients to sell “everything.” JPM does have a sizable ag book, so the ag markets, not knowing what was going on, jumped on the selling bandwagon. Weather forecasts continued the forecast for Argentina to get 1½ to 3½ inches (3.8 to 8.9 cm) of rain over the next two weeks. That will not make a crop. More rain expected for Central Kansas over the weekend added to

Highlights Last month, insurance companies said they would add war risk to the ships in the Black Sea as of January 1st. Last week, the cost to charter a freighter to or from the Black Sea was up more than 20% as insurance companies did what they said they would do. Freight rates from Black Sea to China went from $68 to $82 per mt. That price increase will go a long way to make US wheat and corn more competitive in the world marketplace. Did you notice the US wheat basis firm

About 2023 new crop Justin asked: "What’s your 2023 new crop recommendations? Will u be putting those out soon? Or do u wait until old crop recs have been filled? I’m fairly new to your program so just asking. Thanks." We will begin tracking new crop beans and corn outlook after the January 12th S&D with the final 2022 production estimates. We do not want anyone pricing new crops until they know their cost of inputs. Inflation of farm supplies and machinery in the 1970’s res

Highlights The commodity market news since Friday's strong finish and now includes a major escalation of the war in Eastern Europe (bullish), China is replacing Turkey as Putin's #1 buddy (bullish because Turkey keeps Ukraine's grain corridor open), less rain than expected in Argentina (bullish), continued poor US corn and wheat exports, (yes, bearish but very old news), the US money supply declined from the previous month for the first time in 33 years (hey, that puts a real

Tidbits Deliveries assigned for today by the CBOT are 654 soy oil to 28 December, 93 soybeans to 25 October, and zero bean meal to 9 December. To learn about how and why deliveries affect commodity prices, go to: www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/delivery-process-at-the-cbot Most of the reasons for lower CBOT prices yesterday were from outside the ag business. For the first time since February 1989, the number of US dollars in circulation decreased from the previous month. Th

We apologize for yesterday's email stating the price changes of the outside markets. Certainly some of you had a near heart attack when we reported the markets were trading when you thought they were not. You were correct, they were not trading. Crude oil started trading last evening and the ag commodities will open at 8:30 AM Central Time this morning. A lack of attention to detail is a vice, especially in our business as a service to you. Again, we apologize. Be at war with

Tidbits The biggest surprise on yesterday’s monthly USDA S&D was there were no surprises. The only change on the domestic wheat S&D was the national average price for wheat expected to be paid to US farmers this marketing year was lowered 10 cents to $9.10. Perhaps someone should point that out to the wheat futures traders with Spring wheat futures in that $9 area, but KC wheat about a dollar lower and CBOT wheat $2 lower. The price of corn expected to be paid to farmers was

Market Expects More Supply Chain Disruptions Massive weekend protests continue against the governments in Iran (human rights), China (covid lock-down) and Brazil (presidential election results). Iran sells crude oil and buys wheat, China buys crude oil and soybeans, Brazil sells corn and soybeans. The market took a negative attitude last evening. It was interesting that crude oil, which starts trading two hours before the CBOT, traded about 20 cents lower for those two hours

Highlights Vegetable oil (palm, soybean, canola, sunflower, and five more) prices are now directly tied to the price of crude oil because of the growing use of biofuels. Oilseed producers need to track the fundamentals and technical factors of crude oil to improve marketing of oilseeds. Low sulfur distillate stocks (heating oil and diesel fuel) are down 14% from the previous year, and more bean oil will be needed to stretch diesel supplies. Brazil’s President-elect Lula's tra

Highlights Lloyd's of London insurer, Ascot, is once again quoting cargo insurance for the Black Sea grain corridor, their lead underwriter said on Wednesday. Unconfirmed report is China will relax its zero tolerance COVID policy beginning tomorrow. To what extent the relaxation will be was not stated. This is bullish crude oil, beans, bio fuels and thus corn. Tidbits As expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the fed fund interest rate 75 basis points (3/4%) for the f