BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Saudi Aramco on Sunday said it would cut crude oil prices $2 a barrel in February versus the Oman/Dubai regional benchmark from their January levels. Prices in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean will be down $1.50 to $2 a barrel versus the ICE Brent crude benchmark versus January prices.   After a summer rally attributed in large part to OPEC and Russia production cuts, crude prices set back sharply in the fourth quarter. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S.

Highlights The weather outlook for Brazil’s main growing area looks to be turning drier and warmer next week. Watch the number of rain days in the 10 day forecast we report every day. The first two locations, Rondonópolis and Campo Grande, are in the central part of Brazil where most of the beans and corn are grown.     India is the world’s largest user of urea and it imports ~30% of its urea, which makes it the world’s largest importer of urea. What India pays for urea is th

Tidbits Dr. Michael Cordonnier reduced his Brazilian soybean production by 2 mil mts to 151 million.   StoneX cut its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop to 152.8 mil mts, down from its previous estimate of 161.9 mil. mts and corn was reduced 1.4 mil. mts to 124.6 mil mts.   Agronomic firm, Pine Agronegócios, reported yesterday: "Harvest of soja in Campo Verde/Mato Grosso an area of 300 ha (741 acres) with a yield of ~20 sacs/ha. (17.81 bu per acre). The region is one of the m

Highlights The claim early yesterday morning that Ukraine’s military attacked a Russian landing ship off the coast of Crimea turned out to be true. The Russian troop landing ship, Novocherkassk, near the port city of Feodosia in the eastern coastline area of Crimea was damaged by cruise missiles. Russian officials claim the ship was merely damaged with light casualties, while an Ukrainian Air Force official said the ship was destroyed.   It was the Russian confirmation of dam

Tidbits Governor of Brazil’s state of Rondônia (NW of Mato Grosso) issued a decree Sunday declaring a state of emergency due to the  worst drought the State of Rondônia has ever experienced as crops of coffee, corn, soybeans, beans and rice are being drastically affected.   Diego Meurer of Northern Rondônia, in the Amazon region, has never experienced this situation, soybeans ready to harvest with a yield of 8 bags per hectare (7.1 bu per acre), 80% less production compared t

Highlights During times of normal ocean trade and normal weather, 38 to 40 vessels would transit the Panama Canal every day. Due to dry weather, that number was reduced to 32 ships in August. Further reductions have since been imposed. The Canal Authority stated in October that the daily passages through the Canal would be reduced in mid-January to 18 vessels per day.   The problem is all the locks are gravity filled with fresh water from Gatun Lake. About 52 million gallons

Highlights Yesterday morning, military correspondents reported the Russian Armed Forces are carrying out massive strikes on targets in and around Ukraine’s ports in the Odessa region and on the Romanian border where air raid sirens were blaring 4½ hours during the night.     Reuters’ Karen Braun reported yesterday that soybean seed in Brazil is becoming hard to find due to all the acres that have been replanted, some replanted twice.   Eduardo Vanin, bean trader in Brazil, re

Highlights 247AG, a market consulting firm based in Omaha, reported last evening: "Brazil is still looking drier and hotter as time marches on. Scattered showers across Brazil this afternoon. Nice to see the lack of rain across Rio Grande do Sul."   The United States’ diesel exports to Europe this month will increase sharply as Europe tries to wean itself off Russian fuels. Europe’s demand for diesel is estimated to increase this month to 290,000 barrels per day according to

USDA is now accepting applications for farm loans online: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news-releases/2023/usda-now-accepting-applications-for-farm-loans-online Highlights Corn in Brazil is worth more to feeders and ethanol plants than it is worth at the ports. That should mean the end of Brazil’s corn exports for this marketing year. Brazil's southern state of Parana had the wettest Oct-Nov in a quarter century, almost 21 inches of rain (534 mm, ~70% above avg). Yester

Highlights Benson-Quinn analysts reported yesterday morning: "North and Central Brazil caught 60% of the region. More scattered activity expected today. Then dry until next weekend. Feels like this region is turning the corner. Expect more rains in S Brazil (where it has been very wet the past two months), but it also sounds like some planting progress is being made." And this yesterday afternoon: "USA weekly corn export inspections (yesterday) were best since June at 1.16

The USDA will issue its December S&D on Friday at 11 AM Central Time. There will be no adjustments for US 2023 crops, just demand adjustments for US crops. There will be production and demand adjustments for worldwide crop production. The market will not expect major changes in South American production, nor do we. It is too early in the growing season. However, we know the safrinha corn crop will be significantly smaller than last year, but since it has not been planted yet

Highlights Eduardo Vannin, is a cash grain export trader in Brazil. His special report Saturday morning: Brazil Soybean Market: The EC (weather) model shows good amounts of rain and a good coverage of rain going into the next week, but there is a lack of uniformity in the information. Two factors harmed soybean prices: 1) the EC model has been maintaining forecasts of good volumes of rain for next week, volumes that vary from 40 to 80 mm in the 7-day run for MT (Mato Gro

Highlights Eduardo Vanin 29 November 2023: "Brazilian corn is getting really expensive. Tenders, purchase tenders, went out to South Korea in the last two weeks for December-January shipment at destination prices equivalent to Fob Santos at +80H (Fob premium 80 cents per bushel above the March contract at CBOT)...   For the off-season we are hearing business every day in Mato Grosso on a basis well above export parity as well. It seems that the reduction in area and technolog

Your merchandiser and your futures broker want you to be out of all December futures positions by the close of business today to avoid any chance of being assigned delivery tomorrow. Highlights Rondonópolis received 2 mm of rain on Monday and 0.7 mm yesterday. Day time high temperature both days was 100°F (38°C).   Douglas Marangon of Mato Grosso, reported yesterday: "Replanting in Água Boa MT (Mato Grosso) in the Araguaia Valley. Region in which many areas of soybeans still

Soybeans Q&A From a client in Central Missouri: "Good afternoon, Roger,  What are your thoughts on why the bean market sold off this past week? Should a guy be concerned moving forward? Corn market going to stay in a sideways trend the next month?  Thanks"   Thanksgiving week market action is so distorted it is difficult to get a good handle on the technical and fundamental situation. As far as Friday’s market action goes, the probability of rain was increased for the dry are

Brazil Crops Comments Kory Melby  is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 23 years ago and became a consultant for everything related to agriculture. Roger first met Kory in February 2003 and has come to respect his judgment and thoughts. Kory eats and sleeps Brazilian agriculture and world soybean and corn markets. His market letter this week included these comments:   "Brazil has many problems. Late planting, re-plant, out of synch maturities, and too mu

The CBOT will trade Friday from 8:30 AM to 12:05 PM Central time. It is against the law for any US futures exchange to be closed four consecutive days, therefore, futures exchanges will always trade the Friday after Thanksgiving.  Highlights Yesterday morning saw scattered showers in Brazil’s major crop area (central) with week to date rainfall a half inch (13 mm) to one and half (39 mm). The EU weather model for the next 10 days was a bit drier with moderate temperatures.  

Yesterday’s news was good for a market wanting lower interest rates to boost economic activity. The stock market was strong as it should have, but crude oil was weak despite the improved economic outlook as Russia is “set” to reduce its crude oil export duty by 5.7%, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday afternoon. The new duty, starting in December, is “set” to the equivalent of $3.37 per barrel or $24.7 per mt. Grains probably suffered a profit-taking spree triggered by predictio

Highlights On Friday, Iraq said it wants OPEC+ to cut oil production at OPEC’s November 26th meeting. Some speculators covered their massive short positions Friday ahead of a weekend uncertainty, but crude was down 4% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. Confresha is a municipality in northeast Mato Grosso. From October first through the 10th of November in 2022, Confresha received 16.8 inches (427.8 mm) of rain. During the same calendar days in 2023, the Confres

Highlights The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the rate of inflation at the retail level. This morning, China reported both indexes. The PPI annual rate was expected to be -2.7% (deflation). The actual PPI was a -2.6% (less deflation than expected, which is good) The annual CPI rate was expected to be -0.1%. The actual CPI was -0.2% (not terrible, but worse than expected). From MetSul Meteo