BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Soybeans Q&A From a client in Central Missouri: "Good afternoon, Roger,  What are your thoughts on why the bean market sold off this past week? Should a guy be concerned moving forward? Corn market going to stay in a sideways trend the next month?  Thanks"   Thanksgiving week market action is so distorted it is difficult to get a good handle on the technical and fundamental situation. As far as Friday’s market action goes, the probability of rain was increased for the dry are

Brazil Crops Comments Kory Melby  is a former Minnesota farmer who immigrated to Brazil about 23 years ago and became a consultant for everything related to agriculture. Roger first met Kory in February 2003 and has come to respect his judgment and thoughts. Kory eats and sleeps Brazilian agriculture and world soybean and corn markets. His market letter this week included these comments:   "Brazil has many problems. Late planting, re-plant, out of synch maturities, and too mu

The CBOT will trade Friday from 8:30 AM to 12:05 PM Central time. It is against the law for any US futures exchange to be closed four consecutive days, therefore, futures exchanges will always trade the Friday after Thanksgiving.  Highlights Yesterday morning saw scattered showers in Brazil’s major crop area (central) with week to date rainfall a half inch (13 mm) to one and half (39 mm). The EU weather model for the next 10 days was a bit drier with moderate temperatures.  

Yesterday’s news was good for a market wanting lower interest rates to boost economic activity. The stock market was strong as it should have, but crude oil was weak despite the improved economic outlook as Russia is “set” to reduce its crude oil export duty by 5.7%, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday afternoon. The new duty, starting in December, is “set” to the equivalent of $3.37 per barrel or $24.7 per mt. Grains probably suffered a profit-taking spree triggered by predictio

Highlights On Friday, Iraq said it wants OPEC+ to cut oil production at OPEC’s November 26th meeting. Some speculators covered their massive short positions Friday ahead of a weekend uncertainty, but crude was down 4% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. Confresha is a municipality in northeast Mato Grosso. From October first through the 10th of November in 2022, Confresha received 16.8 inches (427.8 mm) of rain. During the same calendar days in 2023, the Confres

Highlights The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the rate of inflation at the retail level. This morning, China reported both indexes. The PPI annual rate was expected to be -2.7% (deflation). The actual PPI was a -2.6% (less deflation than expected, which is good) The annual CPI rate was expected to be -0.1%. The actual CPI was -0.2% (not terrible, but worse than expected). From MetSul Meteo

Upcoming S&D The USDA will issue its monthly S&D Thursday at 10 AM Mountain Time. The market changes expected from October: Corn yield: increased to 173.2 vs. 173.0 and carryover increased 20 million bushels to 2.131 billion. Soybean yields: unchanged at 49.6 bu with the carryover 2 million more bushels at 222 million. World wheat carryover: down 300,000 mt to 257.8 million mt. Highlights Poet at Shell Rock, IA pushed their basis to +20Z (20¢ over Dec futures for 1st ha

Brazil Cotton Question from Zach: "Do they (Brazil’s farmers) have the infrastructure to handle big acres of cotton? Cotton harvesters are more expensive than combines, do they have one sitting in the shed waiting for that odd year they decide to grow cotton? I've only really been up to date with the happenings of South America since I've been getting your daily emails the last couple years. When was the last time they planted big acres of cotton there? Also, when was the las

Highlights Bill farms 60 miles upriver from the ADM and Cargill barge loading facilities on the Ohio River at Cincinnati. He said both buyers firmed their corn basis from -28Z (28 under the December futures) to 0Z (even with December futures) yesterday. Dayton Cargill firmed their basis 5¢ to -25Z since Friday. Corn harvest is just getting a good start in Ohio and Michigan. Josh reported Homeland Energy at Lawler, Iowa, where harvest is winding down, pushed their basis to +

Highlights Cash wheat export traders are saying China has probably bought more milling quality wheat this year than ever before. Their wheat crop problem was too much rain at harvest. The past few days, traders say China bought about 2 million mt of milling wheat from Australia and the same tonnage from France or the EU which probably put China wheat purchases at record large. Dr. Cordonnier reduced his corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil by 2 million mts each.

Highlights Dr. Michael Cordonnier, the guru of South American crop production, wrote on Friday: "Farmers in Mato Grosso have a difficult decision to make concerning their 2023/24 safrinha corn. Soybean planting in many areas of the state has been delayed due to hot and dry conditions and some of the early planted soybeans will need to be replanted. These delays will result in a delay in planting the safrinha corn in January and February. The ideal planting window for safrin

Highlights November Options Expire Today. It looks like the big specs (who write the calls you buy) want Dec corn to settle at $4.80, December CBOT wheat at $5.80, November beans at $12.80, December spring wheat at $7.20, and December KC wheat at $6.60. Get the option expiration out of the way for another month, maybe the market will trade the technical and fundamentals next week. Eduardo Vanin, a cash trader in Brazil, made this comment yesterday morning: "Alert: As I was

Highlights By a vote of 220 to 209, the House of Representatives elected a Speaker in the person of Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, whose pedigree looks like Jim Jordan without as many political battle scars. He is against financial aid to Ukraine, abortion, gay marriage, wants to close the borders, forebid gender-related surgery and hormone treatment, prohibits mask mandates on airplanes, and tighten immigration standards. He probably was able to get enough votes because

November CBOT options expire Friday. From far west Iowa, a little closer to Sioux City than Omaha, Andrew reported Saturday evening: "Finished 2500 acres of beans with an average of 57 bpa. We had about 1300 acres of irrigated beans out of the 2500. We are disappointed with the yield overall. Started corn yesterday and the first field made right at 100 bpa. 89 bushels under aph and 147 bushels less than last year right across the road on identical soil. Dryland corn is ugly

Brazil Crop Progress Dr. Michael Cordonnier earned a Ph.D. in agronomy from Michigan State University and has been involved in global crop production for more than 45 years. His experience in South America started in the early 1970’s when he conducted agricultural research in Mato Grosso, Brazil. He has been a keen observer of the development of the soybean industry in South America over the last 45 years. Dr. Cordonnier travels regularly to Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay to

Highlights Rain has fallen the past three days in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Goias and the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is forecasting more chances of rain over the next few days with amounts of 0.8 to 1.2 inches (20 to 30 mm) with the possibility of high winds and hail. Rainfall amounts and coverage should increase in central Brazil starting the second week of October. After 90 days without any significant precipitation, coverage was spotty and am

Highlights Yesterday December corn took out its previous 2023 low of $4.73½ with a trade down to $4.69. It settled at $4.71½, down 4¾¢. None of the wheats took out last week’s low for the year and November beans were down 23½¢, but still $1.86 above its May 31st low for the year. Two grain vessels reached Ukraine’s Chornomorsk Black Sea grain port on Sunday as Ukraine tries to prove it can ship grain out of its Black Sea ports without UN, Turkey, and Russian participation.

How Asian Leaf Rust changed the paradigm of world grain trade Before 2001, Brazil was a net importer of corn. Now, Brazil is the world’s #2 corn exporter. This dramatic change came about because of the procedures to control the fungus, Asian Leaf Rust (ALR), in the Brazilian soybean crop. ALR was first reported in Brazil in 2001. Ever since 2001, epidemics of the disease have been common in Brazil, where the fungus can survive year‑round. Also known as Soybean Leaf Rust (S

Highlights Percent crop area in drought condition this week versus last week: Corn 42% versus 49%. Soybean 38% versus 43% Spring wheat 54% versus 52%. Winter wheat 43% versus 45% Ag Resource Company Illinois and Iowa Crop Survey Video (less than USDA’s August yields): https://twitter.com/i/status/1692175523886301425 China Evergrande is one of the three largest property developers in China and it has been behind on its debt service payments for 17 months. Yesterday, China Ever

Highlights Ukraine and the EU are considering rebuilding port facilities and fund transportation of grain to ports in Croatia and Lithuania. That will take at least US$1.5 billion and how many months or years? How long will it take a Russian drone to destroy the new construction? They need to spend $1.5 billion to end the war. But then, ending the war is not the goal. Keeping the war going is the goal so all participants in government and war insiders can earn and/or siphon-o