Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

30 June 2026: USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks USDA reported farmers did not decrease corn acres from their March Intentions. They planted as much corn as they said they would in March, 95.3 million acres. The friendly corn news was the corn demand. June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, 14% above last year, with on-farm holdings up 16% to 2.96 billion. The real story is the less than expected corn stocks. The actual corn inventory was 97 million bushels less than one pre-

Rolling HTA Contracts A client came up short on bushels to fill a July HTA contract for June delivery. The merchandiser suggested the client roll the portion of the undelivered bushels from July to November and deliver the bushels this fall. Our client agreed. He was surprised to learn his new November HTA price was higher than his July HTA. He asked how that could happen? The gain or loss on the roll from July to November has nothing to do with the price of the July HTA, w

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe

Tidbits Acres: Matt Bennet of Agmarket.net expects actual planted corn acres to be less than the March Intentions due to high fertilizer prices, supply challenges, and excessive moisture across regions of the United States. However, the firm says rallying corn prices during the spring kept the reduction from being more significant. Bennett says any acres lost in corn most likely shifted directly to soybeans. The firm believes combined corn and soybean acres are at 180.2 milli

Highlights The acres of corn expected to be planted is 95.3 million acres, down 3.45 million (3.5%) from 2025, but about 900,000 more than the market expected. Soybeans acreage is projected to be up 3.5 million (4%) from last year to 84.7 million acres, but about 750,000 less than the market expected. All wheat acreage is estimated at 43.8 million acres, 1.55 million or 3% below 2025 and the lowest wheat acreage since records began in 1919. Winter wheat planted area at 32.4 m

Tidbits The CO2 Coalition was established in 2015 for the purpose of educating leaders, policy makers, and the public about the important contribution made by carbon dioxide to our lives and the economy. The Coalition seeks to engage in an informed and dispassionate discussion of climate change, humans’ role in the climate system, the limitations of climate models, and the consequences of mandated reductions in CO2 emissions. The CO2 Coalition’s Climate Change’s Real Story

Tidbits Crude oil: Late Friday, President Trump issued a 30-day sanctions waiver for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The waiver applies to oil loaded on any vessel, including sanctioned tankers, on or before 20 March and unloaded by 19 April, according to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. It is the third time the U.S. has temporarily waived sanctions on oil since the start of the war. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wrig

Tidbits U.S. Acres: S&P Global Energy raised its corn plantings forecast to 95.2 million acres from its January projection of 95 million acres. USDA’s 2025 planted acres were 98.8 million. S&P projected U.S. 2026 soybean plantings at 85 million acres, up from its January forecast of 84.5 million and up from the 81.2 million acres seeded in 2025. The firm also projected total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.050 million acres, 40,000 acres above its January projection but d

Tidbits Soy Crush: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported its members crushed 221.654 million bushels of soybeans in January 2026, up 10.6% from a year ago. The market expected a January crush of 218.52 million bushels. The crush was down 1.5% from December because of the cold weather. Soy oil stocks at the end of January were 1.9 billion pounds versus 1.71 billion expected. The USDA will report their version of the January crush on the first business day

Tidbits CBOT Monday deliveries to be assigned today: Corn 80 to 30 June 2025 bullish Meal 199 to 24 Nov 2025 negative Oil 447 to 20 Nov 2025 negative Oats 120 to 13 Nov 2025 bearish Wheat SRW 0 to 18 Mar 2025 bullish HRW 2 to 11 June 2025 bullish HRS 34 to 24 Nov 2025 friendly WTI: Managed money trades (big specs and index funds) were net short West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in early October for the first time since 2008. Over the last 12 year

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning the USDA announced the sale of 330,000 mts of old crop beans to China. The U.S. administration will soon announce details of payments to farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade disputes, Secretary Rollins said yesterday. She also said that the USDA will be making an announcement about "structural changes" to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, the week after Thanksgiving. She has said all SNAP recip

Tidbits Corn Acres: Zaner Ag Hedge Chief Analyst, Karen Braun, asked USDA/NASS via their chatline (paraphrased): Karen prepared state-by-state corn acres reported in June vs corn acres in September. Note the biggest acreage increases percentage wise were in Mississippi, North Dakota, Kansas, Arkansas, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Together, Nebraska and Minnesota added 850,000 acres.

Tidbits Yield: Darren Frye of Water Street Commodities in Peoria has been a market analyst for 42 years and is well respected in the business. He is not afraid to say what he thinks no matter who is listening. After Friday’s USDA numbers were released he wrote on X: "I am lowering my yield range in corn to 170-175 (USDA 186.7). USDA will be coming down big on next report. People think it was a perfect year for corn. Well, the corn is speaking and it is saying this is an “epic

Highlights The USDA Grain Inventory and Actual Planted Acreage Reports were so absolutely neutral, that the biggest news of the day from USDA was the corn crop conditions added 3% this past week to the top two condition categories after losing 2% a week ago. Soybean crop condition ratings were unchanged. Corn stocks were less than a year ago and almost as expected. Of the remaining old crop corn, 2.556 billion bushels (3.026 a year ago) were still on the farm and 2.087 billio

The numbers were: Neutral Corn Unfriendly Old Crop Soybeans Friendly New Crop Soybeans Unfriendly Wheat 15 minutes after the report:...