Grain Marketing Education, News & Strategies

Both Corn and beans gapped higher on the open yesterday, then finished on the highs after substantial gains. Swing traders usually look at days like this to be potential short term sell opportunities, depending on how tonight and tomorrow morning trade. These gaps should both be tested or filled shortly (exactly when ??) , then both grains should paint another leg higher. Therefore, these gaps are good buying opportunities. Here is the 1 hour chart of both grains, respectivel

Tidbits Weather: On Friday, the seven locations we track in the Western Corn Belt were predicted to receive rain 40 out of a possible 70 days in the ten day forecast. Today, those same locations were predicted to receive rain in 17 days in the ten day forecast. Check this morning’s rain day chart and you will know why corn and beans are trading the way they are. The Mariana Islands are roughly halfway between the Philippines and Hawaii. Guam is the southernmost island of th

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for July 4, 2026

Tidbits The CBOT will open this evening at normal hours. Our Weekly Basis will be issued on Tuesday instead of today due to the CFTC not issuing the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Friday afternoon. The COT will be released Monday afternoon. Fertilizer Markets from AgrInvest Commodities of Brazil: The fertilizer market experienced a week of greater stability in nitrogen fertilizers, following the strong volatility observed throughout June. Urea closed the period n

America on its 250th anniversary of Declaration of Independence In 1776, America was the first colony which had ever dared to declare itself independent from another country. Haiti was the second country of the world to declare and win its independence twenty some years later. From George Washington's First Inaugural Address: "It would be peculiarly improper to omit in this first official act my fervent supplications to that Almighty Being who rules over the universe, who p

Tidbits Wheat: The Bangladeshi government has approved the purchase of 220,000 mts of U.S. wheat. Under the new agreement signed in July 2025, Bangladesh began large-scale wheat imports from the United States for the first time. According to the deal, around 700,000 mts of wheat will be imported annually, with the first phase bringing in 220,000 mts at a price of $302–$308 per mt (~$8.30/bu.). Saudi Arabia has issued a tender to purchase 655,000 mts of wheat. Delivery is sche

Tidbits May Crushings data released yesterday by the USDA: Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 524 million bushels, up 9% from April and up 5% from May 2025, 92% of it was for alcohol and 8% for other purposes. Soybeans crushed for crude oil was 6.39 million tons (213 million bushels), down 2.3% from April but up 4.4% from a year ago. Canola seeds crushed for crude oil was 164,947 tons in May 2026, 18% less from April but up 56% from May 2025. Cottonseed once r

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

30 June 2026: USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks USDA reported farmers did not decrease corn acres from their March Intentions. They planted as much corn as they said they would in March, 95.3 million acres. The friendly corn news was the corn demand. June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, 14% above last year, with on-farm holdings up 16% to 2.96 billion. The real story is the less than expected corn stocks. The actual corn inventory was 97 million bushels less than one pre-

The soybean continuation chart rolled over to the November contract on Monday. Most of the fund money and big hedgers skip the August and September contracts because they are not significant or liquid enough. Continuation gaps in a normal carry market are almost always filled, as you see today's action accomplished just that. Furthermore, the market generally continues trading in the direction of the gap, which was up. July has begun, expect some volatility in both directions

Tidbits Today at 11 AM Central, the USDA will release its Actual Planted acres and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports. The USDA reported total corn disappearance from 1 December 2025 to 1 March 2026 was 4.258 billion bushels, up 350 million bushels from a year ago. Winter demand is always more than warmer weather demand. The market expects corn disappearance from 1 March to 1 June 2026 to be 3.632 billion bushels, up 128 million bushels from a year ago. Export inspections for the

Tidbits All CBOT July basis contracts and long July futures contracts need to be rolled or liquidated today to avoid any chance of being assigned delivery through the CBOT. Weather: With all the hot weather in Europe the past two weeks and the heat coming into the crop areas of the U.S. this weekend and predicted to stay over the next two weeks, we were surprised to see corn and soybeans futures drop 4 to 5¢ after opening Sunday evening. A brutal Western European hea

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for June 27, 2026

Tidbits Iran: Fox News reported the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iranian targets Saturday afternoon after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) attacked a second commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior U.S. official. The strikes are targeting Iranian air defenses, drone storage facilities, cruise missiles, targeting radars, minelaying capabilities and surface-to-air missile systems. Despite this, media reports sugges

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 51,876, +311 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $70.24, -7.30. Dollar Index settled at 101.37, +0.61. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,524, -198. Corn July futures settled at $4.12¾, -4¾¢ for the week. December corn s

Rolling HTA Contracts A client came up short on bushels to fill a July HTA contract for June delivery. The merchandiser suggested the client roll the portion of the undelivered bushels from July to November and deliver the bushels this fall. Our client agreed. He was surprised to learn his new November HTA price was higher than his July HTA. He asked how that could happen? The gain or loss on the roll from July to November has nothing to do with the price of the July HTA, w

Tidbits July CBOT Options expire today because this is the last Friday of the month with at least two business days the following week. Every corn futures contract from July 2026 through July 2027 made a new contract low yesterday and closed higher than the high for the previous day. That is what technicians call a “key reversal,” a fairly reliable indication of a price trend change. In recent weeks, corn futures contracts made two “hook reversals,” which is a new low followe

Tidbits Acres: Matt Bennet of Agmarket.net expects actual planted corn acres to be less than the March Intentions due to high fertilizer prices, supply challenges, and excessive moisture across regions of the United States. However, the firm says rallying corn prices during the spring kept the reduction from being more significant. Bennett says any acres lost in corn most likely shifted directly to soybeans. The firm believes combined corn and soybean acres are at 180.2 milli

This is a continuation of articles about the use of put options on commodity futures as a primary marketing tool to lock-in a minimum price or as a price “enhancer” of forward contracts or HTA contracts. Here in August, we have been discussing the process to maximize the income from the sale of a previously purchased put option. Since put options increase in value as the futures price declines, the first objective to maximize put income is to sell the put when the underlying

This a continuation of weekly articles about the use of put options on commodity futures as a primary marketing tool to lock-in a minimum price or as a price “enhancer” of forward contracts or HTA contracts. This article discusses the process to maximize the income from the sale of a put option. Since put options increase in value as the futures contract price declines, the first objective to maximize put income is to sell the put when the underlying futures contract price is