BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits Brazil: Pátria Agronegócios is a consulting service for the soybean and corn markets based in Goiania, Goias, Brazil. Their weather comments yesterday: “Forecasts indicate dry weather over the next 15 days in key regions such as Goiás, Minas Gerais, and northern São Paulo. This raises an important alert, especially since about 40% of the second crop was planted outside the ideal window. On the other hand, Mato Grosso has crops in excellent condition, which limits any

Tidbits The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is really a blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait. No ships are allowed to enter or leave an Iranian port, but the U.S. says the strait is open and Iran says the strait is closed. The reality is insurance companies are limiting shipping through the strait. On Sunday, President Trump issued the following statement: "Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as a

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for April 18, 2026

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 49,447, +1,531 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $85.57, -10.06. Dollar Index settled at 98.23, -0.47. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,567, +366. Corn May futures settled at $4.48¾, +7¾¢ for the week. December corn

Tidbits Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iran said it was responding to a continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a violation of their ceasefire, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran's navy ‌was ready to inflict "new bitter defeats" on its enemies. At least two Indian flagged vessels carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil were hit while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iranian State media quoted the Supreme National

The Epic Fury Excursion has caused many ups and downs in June Crude Oil futures. All of the blue lines are supply/demand lines, meaning that supply and demand is balanced when price touches the line. The area of price encircled by the grey oval indicates that a supply glut will occur in the near future. Furthermore, the blue trend lines are also price targets, as you can see from yesterday's low print. Also, there is a gap below at about 67.0 Dollars which will be filled prob

Tidbits Iran War: President Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. Bloomberg reported Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the U.S. Details include: Trump says that a deal to end the war between the US/Israel and Iran is now "mostly complete" Talks over a lasting agreement will "probably" be held this weekend and "most main points are finalized" Trump denied that the moratorium on Iran’s nuclear program would expire after 20 years Fe

How to Calculate Time Value of an Option The last put discussion ended with the question, “Was the $11 September wheat put out-of-the-money or in-the-money on the close of business Monday, April 25th with September wheat at $10.71¼?” To determine if the $11 put was in-the-money or out-of-the-money, you ask yourself: If that put option is exercised (exchanged for futures position), would the resulting futures position have a profit or a loss? A put with a strike price of $11.0

What is Time Value of an Option? This is the eighth essay discussing how to use put options to enhance your grain marketing was written after the close Monday, April 25, 2022. For the second day in a row, September 2022 CBOT wheat settled 2 cents lower today, at $10.71¼. Also, for the second day in a row, the September $10 and $9 puts lost value. The $10 put lost 5 cents and the $9 put lost 1 3/8 cents. As you should already know, puts are supposed to increase in value w

Tidbits Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 Argentine corn production estimate by 4 million mts to 61 million mts, well above the USDA’s April WASDE forecast of 52 million mts, however still below the Rosario Grain Exchange estimate of 67 million mts. The BAGE kept their soybean production forecast steady at 48.5 million mts while reporting harvest at 6% complete. France’s Ag Ministry estimates 2026 soft wheat planting at 4.61 million hectare

Tidbits We liked yesterday’s corn action. Yes, it was up 8¢, but what we really liked is all the settlement prices were less than a cent from the high for the day. This is a technical indication of strength because the traders did not take profit after a very nice daily gain as they usually have done on the corn. El Niño has become a topic of heavy discussion of late and for good reason. We have reported every Tuesday the weekly ENSO changes for about seven years. The past fo

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report. We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, change the s

Tidbits Planting Feedback: Jeff in Minnesota sent us this information yesterday morning: “Friend of mine around Charleston (far southeast) Missouri called last night. Record heat temps along with dry soils. Planting corn 2.5” deep to get in moisture. And he is a no till guy. He said guys around there planted all their corn in 4 days.” Brazilian agency CONAB estimated yesterday total corn production 1.3 million higher, at 139.6 million mts, but below last year’s 141.2 million.

Tidbits OPEC has lowered its world oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported. AAA lists the national average gasoline price at $4.12, up from $3.63 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago. The national average diesel price at $5.65, up from $4.89 a month ago and $3.59 a year ago. Biofuel & Oils: Palm oil is the most plentiful vegetable oil, which is

Tidbits The U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Each side blamed the other for the failure of the 21-hour negotiations to make a deal. Iran will not agree to give up its pursuit of developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. and most of its allies require Iran to give up that pursuit. After all, Iran has openly stated for 47 years it wants to “Blow Israel off the map” and “Death to America.” The military operation versus Iran will not end unless Iran has a regime change

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for April 11, 2026\

Last week, May Soybeans gapped down, then continued selling 20.0 cents to the low, however the buyers quickly stepped in and rallied price back up through the bottom of the channel. Therefore, the current evidence tells us that soybeans cannot sell off any more. This formation is called a fakeout/shakeout - the market pushes down to take out the sell stops, then reverses back up, with the would be retail buyers frozen, not knowing what is happening. You will see a smaller red

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. The Dow Jones Index settled on Friday at 47,917, +1,412 points for the week. Crude oil settled at $95.63, -16.43. Dollar Index settled at 98.698, -1.49. Baltic Dry Index (a shipping freight-cost index) settled at 2,201, +135. Corn May futures settled at $4.41, -11¼¢ for the week. December corn

Tidbits Saturday's negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded according to Iran's government early this morning (Sunday), after a series of talks in Pakistan to end the six-week war between Washington and Tehran. The talks in Islamabad were the first ‌direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In a post on X, Iran's government said that after 14 hours, technical experts from both si

Tidbits Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 126,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown and 100,000 mts of old crop soybean meal to Italy. Strait of Hormuz: There is a very slight chance of a long term solution to the Iran War will come from Islamabad, Pakistan, the site of the first face-to-face talks between U.S. and Iranian people which is under way this morning. Vice President JD Vance is leading the U.S. delegation. Before a long-term deal can b