BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Tidbits January crush numbers  were reported by the USDA after the close yesterday. Corn crush was 505 million bushels, down 2% from a year ago; 461 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol, down 1% from a year ago, crush numbers were better than we expected, given the January weather in the Corn Belt. The January weather probably had something to do with the amount of corn crushed for beverage alcohol at 3.47 million bushels, up 22% from January 2025. The soybean cru

Tidbits April WTI Crude Oil  futures opened at $75.00 last evening, up $7.98. In a matter of seconds, it traded to $75.33 and, within 15 minutes, it traded down to $71.04. Brent crude traded as high as $80 in over-the-counter trading Sunday.   The big move up is primarily on fears the Strait of Hormuz on the south end of the Persian Gulf may be closed or blocked. More than 20% of global crude oil and 33% of international fertilizer trade passes the Strait of Hormuz. Some ship

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for February 28, 2026

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 48,978, -648 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $67.29, +0.98. Dollar Index  settled at 97.65, -0.14. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 22,140, +97. Corn May futures settled at $4.48½, +8¾¢ for the wee

Tidbits How will the markets react to the attack on Iran?  Logically, one would expect crude oil to trade higher. There will be fools buying crude oil futures on the opening this evening. They don't realize traders have already Bought the Rumor (U.S. will  attack Iran) and those same traders Will Sell the Fact (U.S. did  attack Iran). The only reason crude oil would maintain its $12 gain since mid-December is if the insurance companies refuse to insure ships sailing to and fr

May SRW Wheat is testing price levels from 8 months to 1 year ago. Wheat has rallied almost a dollar since the early January low. Friday's high of 597.0 might hold as resistance for the time being. 609.0 and 617.0 are the next highs to the left as you will see on the daily chart. Wheat has completed 9 Elliot waves, so far. A normal impulse wave has 5 or 9 waves. This is evidence that indicates a possible swing high is in place. Hard wheat is minus 8 cents to soft. Ford cont:

Highlights Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran on Saturday about 8 AM local time, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nuclear dispute with the West.   The New York Times and Al Jazeera, citing a U.S. official, reported that the United States took part in the strikes. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran. Tidbits

Tidbits Flash Sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 154,000 mts of new crop corn and 24,000 mts of 2027 crop corn to Japan. Soybean Demand & Oil: Weekly Export Sales   reported 407,100 mts of soybeans were booked for export this marketing year which ends 31 August. Soybean sales were down 49% from a week ago and down 30% from the 4-week average. China bought 75,500 mts, but 66,000 mts was switched from an unknown buyer to China. So, China only bought 9,500 m

Tidbits Israel plans to make further trade concessions to the U.S. on food and agricultural goods. The Israeli government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, as Bloomberg reports. Officials hope that boosting the competitiveness of U.S. wheat against Israel’s traditional suppliers — the largest of them being Russia — will help clinch a deal to ease tariffs on goods shipped to th

I am going to cover liquidity gaps, and support and resistance levels on the continuation corn chart. These gaps occur when the bulk of the funds roll from the front month to the next month. They usually occur a few days before first notice day. These gaps behave like any other gap as you will see on the corn chart, as it functions like a breakaway gap if it is not filled. So far this is how the gap looks as you can see on the chart Also displayed on the chart is how old supp

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), also for inputs like fuel and fertilizer for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Read about our approach to this report here . We provide three different marketing plans (in order of decreasing our preference). The marketing decision is yours to make, obviously you can mix those plans, cha

Tidbits First notice day  for March futures is this coming Friday. Panama has reassigned control of two key ports from Chinese operator CK Hutchinson to two European operators after nearly three decades in Chinese hands. CK Hutchison said Panama's decision to cancel key port contracts and grant temporary licences to Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping was “unlawful” as it considers national and international legal action against Panama and third parties. U.S. President Donald T

Tidbits Four years ago today the war between Russia and Ukraine began. After being invaded by Hitler’s Germany in June 1941, the Soviet Union defeated Germany in 3 years and 11 months. After Japan destroyed most of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. defeated Imperial Japan in 3 years and 8 months. Wars just are not fought to win any more. That is why the Vietnam War lasted 13 years and Afghanistan was a 20 year war. Flash sale: Yesterday morning, the USDA announ

Tidbits Mexican drug cartels  declared war on the Mexican and U.S. governments after their drug lord, El Mencho, was killed in a joint Mexican-U.S. operation. It was 15 days ago that Mexico agreed to joint operation in Mexico with U.S. authorities and they succeeded in taking out a kingpin.   The drug cartel has declared war on the Mexican people in an attempt to motivate citizens to plead for the government to call off its persecution of the drug cartels. Many Mexican cities

World Free-On-Board Grain & Oilseed Prices for February 21, 2026

It's our weekly U.S. grain market analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat, including traders positioning, basis bids tracking, crush margins, weekly news wrap-up and comments. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled on Friday at 49,626, +125 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $66.31, +3.50. Dollar Index  settled at 97.79, +0.91. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 2,043, -40. Corn March futures settled at $4.27½, -4¼¢ for the we

Tidbits The Supreme Court’s decision that made a large portion of President Trump’s tariffs illegal will not have a direct impact on corn, wheat, and soybean prices. After all, Trump's tariffs are on imports into the U.S., not our exports.   Confusion and misinformation is often bearish, but Trump’s new 10% tariffs introduced on Friday afternoon will help stabilize all the markets. Those 10% tariffs will come into effect Tuesday and will be in place for 150 days, the White Ho

Tidbits Tariffs: The Supreme Court ruled yesterday by a vote of 6-3 that President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal. The Court ruled the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 law meant for national emergencies, does not authorize a president to impose tariffs. Tariffs are considered taxes/duties, which fall under Congress’ constitutional authority. Any broad delegation of authority to the President requires clear statutory language that IEEPA does not i

I expected consolidation and corrective action in May soybeans this week, but we only saw sideways consolidation - no selling to test 1120, as I thought. Apparently the bulls are firmly in control, with the week being capped off with an exclamation point on today's price action. A strong selloff was met with a rejection by the bulls as they bought every contract the sellers offered plus more. Staying with the Elliot wave lessen, corrective number 4 should be complete, paving

Tidbits Today is the last trading day for March options. First notice day for March grain futures is next Friday, February 27. Be sure to exit or roll any long positions by the close on February 26 to avoid being involved in the delivery process. Iran rejected the U.S. nuclear deal proposal, which was presented during negotiations in Geneva this week, as the Wall Street Journal reports. Iran counter-offered "modest concessions on its nuclear program.” U.S. officials say that