BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, November 26 , 2024: December corn settled yesterday at $4.20¾, -6½¢ since last Tuesd

Markets will be closed on Thanksgiving, November 28, reopen on Friday, at 8:30 am CDT, and close early at 12:05 pm CDT. The Commodity Exchange Act states all U.S. futures exchanges cannot be closed more than three consecutive days. Highlights Israel and Hezbollah  have agreed to a permanent cease-fire beginning today.     Trump's statement that he will slap a 10% tariff on everything imported from China is supporting soybean oil because the tariff will increase the cost of im

Tidbits The market will be closed  on Thursday observing the Thanksgiving holiday. The final crop progress  report for the season: Winter wheat planting is at 97% complete - one of the most late-season endings. It is rated 55% good or excellent, 6% points improvement from a week ago and 10 better than five-year average level. As of the third week of November, Ukraine's total grain harvest  is 53.4 million mts, a 3.8% decline compared to the previous year, which includes 23.6

At the beginning of this marketing year (1 September), U.S. soybean export sales for this crop year were 15% less than the previous year. Karen Braun reported Friday U.S. soybean sales were 10% higher than a year ago for this marketing year. She also said sales to China were down 7% from a year ago. There are two ways to look at that; does it mean China is more likely to buy more than the normal tonnage of beans in the coming two months to "catch-up" or they just do not need

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,297, +851.52 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.18, +4.23. Dollar Index  settled at 107.49, +0.82. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,537, -248 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.25½, +1½¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cas

U.S. Soybean Market Situation The two major unknowns for the North American markets are the biofuels unknowns and 2025 planted soybean acres. The biofuel issues are scheduled to become known within 30 to 40 days, but that probably will not happen or if it does happen, the Trump Administration could change them after 20 January.   Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producers are eligible for a tax credit of $1.25 per gallon. Qualifying SAF must reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissio

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 198,000 mts of old crop beans to unknown.    The USDA forecasts net farm income to reach $116 billion in 2024, 15% above the 10-year average, but lawmakers argue this masks the struggles of individual producers, particularly row crop farmers. There are increasing calls for federal aid. Ag bankers report a 40% increase in new operating loans and signs of growing debt distress, particularly in the central Plains and Midw

Highlights December CBOT options expire today.   As we wrote earlier, President Biden authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with long-range missiles, after that Ukraine launched two missile strikes on Russian regions. Experts say those missiles have to be operated by NATO specialists. Yesterday, Russia launched a strike with the “Oreshnik” Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missile  at a military plant in Ukraine. It is said hypersonic missiles have a sp

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale  of: 202,000 mts of old crop soybeans to China 226,200 mts of old crop soybeans to unknown   The Biden Administration closed the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv,  Ukraine because of the escalating war. Historically, the U.S. has kept U.S. Embassies open until the very last possible day because it is the last safe-haven for Americans and America’s friends in the country. Following the U.S., Italy, Spain and a number of other countrie

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Market outlook after the close Tuesday, November 19 , 2024. Corn December corn settled yesterday at $4.27¼, -1¼¢ since last Tuesda

Highlights Two telecommunications cables cut in the Baltic Sea in 48 hours prompted European officials to say Tuesday that they suspect "sabotage" and "hybrid warfare" linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   The four countries affected by the cuts, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden, have all launched investigations, with Berlin and Swedish police saying they suspected sabotage. Two Danish navy ships began shadowing a Chinese cargo vessel, the Yi Peng 3, as it sailed o

Highlights December basis contracts and long futures positions need to be liquidated or rolled by the close of business on Wednesday, 27 November. Given that December options expire this Friday and December delivery assignments will be issued on the evening of 27th, we recommend you roll basis contracts today or tomorrow to avoid the usual weakness associated with options expiration and first notice day. There are probably a lot of December corn basis contracts. When December

Successful International Trade Negotiations Require Tough Negotiators Japan was the largest importer of U.S. agricultural products just...

Tidbits North Dakota utility regulators granted approval on Friday for a span of a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline that would cross five Midwestern states. The state’s Public Service Commission voted unanimously to approve a siting permit for Summit Carbon Solutions’ modified, 333-mile route in North Dakota. The company’s proposed $8 billion, 2,500-mile pipeline system would carry tons of CO2 emissions from 57 ethanol plants in five states for storage deep underground in Nor

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,445, -544.00 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $66.95, -3.48. Dollar Index  settled at 106.67, +1.72. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,785, +290 for the week. Corn December futures  at $4.24, -7¢ for the week. Basis   (Z = Dec; e.g. 10Z means 10¢ over December futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash

Highlights The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush was an all-time monthly high in October. NOPA members crushed 199.959 million bu., eclipsing the record of 196.406 million bu. set in March of 2024. To learn all about NOPA, go to: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/about-the-nopa   "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates" , said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday during a speech in Dallas.

Highlights This news report was what kicked soybeans in the head late yesterday morning: a bill to revoke China's (most favored) trade status has been introduced in the US Congress. The author is Republican John Moolenaar (Michigan), chairman of the lower house's China Committee. The document proposes  increasing tariffs: 35% strategic goods 100% non-strategic goods   Republicans control the lower house. The new document will become the basis for Trump's tariff policy. In res

Highlights The Labor Department reported yesterday morning the Consumer Price Index  (CPI; inflation at the retail level) increased 0.2% in October, taking the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations. Later this morning, we will get the Producer Price Index (PPI), the measure of inflation at the wholesale level. The market expects it was up 0.2% in October as was the CPI. CPI chart for the last years: On Ag Talk, a Cherokee, Iowa farmer

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain We will post Bullish Consensus on Thursday's daily report. Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, November 12 , 2024: Decem

Highlights Yesterday, a stronger dollar (six month high), fear of Trump tariffs, improving weather in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, South America, and in the U.S. winter wheat area all combined to encourage profit talking and then technical selling kicked-in.       Wheat market  guru, Andrey Sizov had this to say about the wheat market yesterday: "Over the weekend, Kansas received 20-40 mm (25.4 mm = 1 inch)  of precipitation, offsetting the moisture deficit accumulated ove