U.S. Soybean Market Situation
The two major unknowns for the North American markets are the biofuels unknowns and 2025 planted soybean acres. The biofuel issues are scheduled to become known within 30 to 40 days, but that probably will not happen or if it does happen, the Trump Administration could change them after 20 January.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) producers are eligible for a tax credit of $1.25 per gallon. Qualifying SAF must reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50%. SAF that decreases GHG emissions by more than 50% is eligible for an additional 1¢ per gallon for each percent the reduction exceeds 50%.
Unfortunately for soybean growers, used cooking oil (UCO) imported from China is cheaper than U.S. produced soybean oil qualifies for the $1.25 subsidy, which is paid by U.S. taxpayers.
Two months ago, there was a lot of talk for about a week in Congress to stop the subsidy to the SAF producers using Chinese UCO and suddenly, not a peep ever since.