At the beginning of this marketing year (1 September), U.S. soybean export sales for this crop year were 15% less than the previous year. Karen Braun reported Friday U.S. soybean sales were 10% higher than a year ago for this marketing year. She also said sales to China were down 7% from a year ago. There are two ways to look at that; does it mean China is more likely to buy more than the normal tonnage of beans in the coming two months to "catch-up" or they just do not need the beans and that is why China has bought 7% less this year?
Given the tremendous amount of soybean sales to China and to unknown buyers the past two months and knowing Brazil is out of soybeans until harvest, we are thinking China will continue to be buying more than the normal amount of soybeans for two more months, especially since China has to deal with Trump in two months.
The U.S. soybean crush in September was a record high for that month, up 11.3% from September 2023. The NOPA crush in October was also a record high. On 2 December, USDA will report the total October soybean crush, which most certainly will be an all time record high for October as NOPA members crush more than 90% of U.S. soybeans.
In August, the USDA projected this marketing year's soybean carryover would be a 47 day supply; in November, USDA predicted a U.S. carryover of 39 days. Yes, of course, the world knows if Brazil's weather is normal, the world will have plenty of soybeans, but that is already priced-in for the most part or even more than the most part! Transportation problems always hinder Brazil's exports. The weather will not stay perfect the entire growing season.