BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights It is very important to understand Friday’s price gains  for corn and beans were based upon production cuts, not demand increases. While there will be increases in demand in the coming months, the production cuts for 2024 U.S. crops are behind us and there will be no more production adjustments until possibly some minor adjustment in September, after the marketing year is over.    Brazilian grain trader, Eduardo Vanin, Friday evening reported exporters were booking

Highlights The market reaction to the USDA numbers was bullish for corn and beans. Corn should have been stronger than it was given as the 2024 corn yield was reduced 3.8 bushels per acre.      The USDA pretty much admitted they do not know what they are doing or that they had been lying to us about the corn and soybean inventory.   USDA added 200,000 acres of corn harvested, but cut the yield by a whopping 3.8 bushels to 179.3. The lowest trade yield guess was 181.3.   The b

The numbers were: Bullish Corn Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat     45 Minutes After the Report: March Corn +13 January beans +23 March...

Market Comment Today at 11 AM Central, the USDA will release its January U.S. and World S&D, the Quarterly Grain Inventory Report for US commodities as of 1 December 2024 and U.S. winter wheat actual plantings. The market expects U.S. 2024 corn yield to be reduced by a half bushel and the soybean bean yield reduced by a tenth of a bushel. Corn carryover might be decreased due to higher ethanol usage and lower production. Soy oil exports will likely see an increase.   We expec

Due to a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, equity and stock option markets will be closed today. Agricultural futures markets will close early at 12:15 pm CDT today and re-open this evening at normal times. Highlights As you know, we have been encouraging you soybean owners to get your beans sold by 12 January. That recommendation has nothing to do with tomorrow’s USDA world S&D. The soybean sale recommendation is based on the historical fact that wh

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 7 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.58, -½¢ since last Tuesday. Tue

Highlights Agricultural markets will close at 12:15 PM CST tomorrow, January 9th in a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. The grain markets will reopen at their regular times Thursday evening and trade normal hours on Friday, January 10th, the day of the USDA S&D at 10 AM Mountain Time. The weather forecast for South America has not improved in the past 24 hours. If anything it is hotter and drier in Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina and rain is in the f

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,707, +132.83 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $73.46, +1.87. Dollar Index  settled at 108.18, +0.20. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,043, +46 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.50¾, -3¼¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pri

Tidbits Yesterday, March corn  traded over $4.60 for the first time since late June. South American weather is not improving, but make no mistake, the South American soybean crop  will be overwhelmingly large. The USDA is likely to increase its Brazilian bean production estimate on Friday. It is also reasonable the USDA will reduce corn production in the U.S. and world wide.  Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders Report ( COT ) showed managed money holds the largest net long corn

Highlights It is 6 January. The latest day in January the soybean market started its January sell-off was 12 January. The second latest date was 7 January. Nothing is 100% in this business, but the South American weather over the weekend was not any better than expected and probably worse and the forecast for the next 10 days is definitely no improvement for crops.    However, do not think for one second that South America is going to have anything less than an all-time large

An annual trading summary by Wright on the Market’s Eugene   I began trading futures two years ago with $10,000 of a joint investment to...

Highlights Why did corn and beans crash and burn yesterday?   The Weekly Export Sales report issued yesterday morning was terrible as it always is Christmas week. It should never be a surprise, but poor sales Christmas week is always a disappointment.    The House of Representatives was scheduled to select a Speaker yesterday. The last time they tried to elect a Speaker, it took three weeks! Thankfully, after the CBOT closed, Mike Johnson, (R-La.) was re-elected to lead the H

Highlights The USDA released its November crush numbers yesterday after the close:  Soybean crush was 210 million bu., 10 million more than the same month a year ago. Canola crush was 211,013 tons, down from 219,843 tons a year ago. Corn crushed for all purposes was 514 million bu., up 1% from a year ago. Corn for ethanol crush was 465 million bu., up 2% from a year ago.   StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop 5.2 million mts to 171.4 million mts (USDA

The CBOT market will reopen today at 8:30 AM Central time.  Tidbits A client asked Tuesday afternoon:   Do I sell on this rally?  Corn: No.  Soybeans: Yes.    If you grow soybeans, the next 10 days are very important. Historically, bean futures will make a high before 14 January (maybe already made the high) and then sell-off 40 to 80¢ within a matter of weeks as the market prices in a successful Brazilian soybean crop.       Too much rain in the northern area of Brazil’s bea

Highlights William Edwards Deming was born in 1900 in Sioux City, Iowa , was raised in the community of Polk City, Iowa , on his...

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, December 31 , 2024: March corn settled yesterday at $4.58½, +10¢ since last Tuesday.

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 42,574, -266.53 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $71.59, +2.01. Dollar Index  settled at 107.98, +0.17. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 997, +7 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.54, +7¾¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price)

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 23,000 mts of old soybean oil to India. China and India usually buy palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia, but those two countries are going big on biodiesel and have greatly restricted palm oil exports.   Egypt's public procurement agency, Mostakbal Misr, has secured direct contracts for 1.267 million mts of primarily Russian wheat, sufficient to meet the country's needs until June 2025. In the first half of the 2024/25

Today is the day to liquidate long January futures positions to eliminate any chance of being assigned a delivery. Tidbits Several agricultural input suppliers in Argentina are struggling financially or have already filed bankruptcy. The problem was the input suppliers did not change their marketing and financing program when the conservative, cost-cutting President Javier Milei took office a year ago.   The crop input suppliers did not not expect inflation to be reduced, the

Tidbits The farm bill will provide nearly $31 billion in disaster and economic aid  to farmers, but it looks like it will be late March before payments are made. You can read DTN’s summary of the Farm Bill's financial aid at this link .   The Soybean Seasonal Trend the next 30 days is very predictable. We covered this two weeks ago and here it is again. The past 6 years, March soybeans have lost an average of 88½¢ as the market priced-in Brazil’s soybean crop being made in th