BASIC & RECENT MARKET INFO

Highlights Former Minnesota farmer turned Brazil all-around ag consultant Kory Melby commented Saturday afternoon on X: “These numbers will increase a lot by next Friday, however, MT (Mato Grosso)  soy harvest at 4.2% vs 21% (a year ago) , MT cotton planting 29% vs 77% and corn planting at 1% vs 11%. Cotton is now out of the ideal  (planting)  window and corn has 1 month  (before the ideal planting window closes) . Next 30 days are mega important for 2nd corn."   If Kory is c

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 44,424, +945.42 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $74.6, -3.44. Dollar Index  settled at 107.47, -1.94. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 778, -209 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.86½, +2¼¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash price

Brooke Rollins is President Trump's pick to lead USDA. She is 52 years old, grew up on a Texas farm, graduated with honors from Texas A&M with a B.S. in Agriculture Development. She was the first woman to be elected A&M student body president and served as the speaker pro tempore of the A&M Student Senate, the chair of the Texas A&M Judicial Court, as a Fish Camp counselor, and was Cotton Bowl Classic Queen. In 2007, Rollins became the first female speaker at the College Stat

Tidbits / Market Comment When it comes to marketing grain and oil seeds,  you are living in historic times. Never have we had so many variables, any one of which could send the market sharply higher or lower.   Your market plan needs to include  risk management , which requires some mental time and maybe money.   Soybeans have the potential to drop a dollar or more. Now that the 45Z decision has been delayed for as many as 60 days, the upside potential for beans depends on ho

Tidbits Crop conditions in Argentina  continue to get worse. Soybeans are rated 28% poor condition vs. 21% last week and 14% a year ago. Corn is rated 20% poor vs. 14% last week and 6% a year ago. However, in their 2023 drought, 60% of the bean crop and 47% of the corn crop were in poor condition. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced cuts to estimated production for Argentina's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops by 1 million mts each to 49.6 million mts and 49 million mts,

Tidbits Yesterday morning, the USDA announced the sale of 136,000 mts of old crop corn to unknown. Rumors are floating that China needs to buy corn. The U.S. is the only place to buy shiploads of corn until June. Three months ago, China said it harvested its biggest crop of corn last summer despite three typhoons moving across much of their corn growing area in July and August.   Early yesterday China halted soybean imports from five Brazilian companies because cargoes did no

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 21 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.90, +15½¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights S&P Global published their estimates for US spring planting intentions for corn and beans. We added the past three years: Corn: 93.5 million acres, 90.6(2024), 94.6(2023), 88.2(2022) Beans: 83.3 million acres, 87.1(2024), 83.6(2023), 87.5(2022)   Trump said no tariffs will be imposed until 1 February and then only on Canada and Mexico.   The dollar index has lost 2 full points the past two days because tariffs were postponed or cancelled.

Highlights President Donald Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday. A Trump administration official said Trump would issue a broad trade memo that stops short of immediate tariffs but directed federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trade relationships with China, Canada and Mexico. That news slammed the U.S. dollar lower by 1.28 and gave world stock markets a boost on Monday. The World Economic Forum was founded by Klaus Schwab 24 January 1971. It describes itself as a

Ag market futures will resume trading at normal time this evening. Crude oil began trading as its usual time last evening, namely 5 PM Central, and will trade today until its normal close at 4 PM Central.   Wayne Bacon is traveling, so there will be no world FOB grain price and ocean freight rate report this week. Tidbits Much of Argentina’s crop areas received between three and four tenths (~10 mm) on Saturday.     Sunday morning weather update for crop areas of Argentina: "

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 43,479, +1,540.38 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $78.04, -0.78. Dollar Index  settled at 109.41, -0.55. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 987, -106 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.84¼, +7¾¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pr

Highlights Eduardo Vanin reported yesterday: "Soybean (export)  lineup to China. Shipments in the last 4 weeks at 4.5 million mts and nominations (export sales not shipped) at 4.7 million mts. Both numbers are too low. Soybean stocks in China will drop fast. Add to this the very slow harvest in Brz. Soybean auctions demand will jump."   AgRural claims it is an independent, privately owned Brazilian agricultural consultancy established in Curitiba, Paraná, since 1996. It provi

Highlights The CBOT ag markets will not trade until 7 PM Monday evening due to MLK Day. Yesterday morning the European weather model  significantly reduced rainfall amounts for the next 10 days for Argentina. It had predicted 2½ to 3 inches (50-60 mm) before Friday morning's EUR model showed just a half to one inch (10-24 mm) in the Buenos Aires province which includes Salto, the sixth location on our rain day chart. It appears most (maybe all) other forecasters are sticking

Highlights The weather forecasters have come to the consensus there will be significant rainfall in the dry areas of South America starting this weekend. That is what last Monday’s ENSO update indicated with the rising water temperature and our rain day charts have been increasing the number of days with rain in the ten day forecast all week.   Uruguay borders Argentina to its west and southwest, Brazil to its north and northeast while bordering the Río de la Plata to the sou

Highlights NOPA crush  in December was 206.604 million bushels, up 7% from November and up 6% from a year ago. This is the largest monthly NOPA crush ever recorded. New crush records have been set in the past four months and 10 of the past 12 months. The range of expectations were 202.0 and 209.5 million bushels, with the average of 205.5. Soy oil stocks were 1.236 billion pounds, up from 1.084 billion last month, but 17 million pounds less than expected. Soy oil inventory is

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn , soybeans and wheat (Soft Red Winter, Hard Red Winter & Spring), fuel , fertilizers for past week Wednesday to Tuesday. Explanation of our approach: https://www.wrightonthemarket.com/post/how-to-decide-when-to-price-grain Corn Corn  situation after the close Tuesday, January 14 , 2025: March corn settled yesterday at $4.74½, +16½¢ since last Tuesday.

Highlights Weather in Argentina is the single most important factor for the price of soybeans from now until the rains start. Argentina’s crop areas saw mostly 100°F (38°C) or higher yesterday as the debate about when the showers will start became the number one topic for the bean market. There is no consensus when the showers will come, but there are plenty of opinions and conflicting forecasts.   Reuter’s World Agriculture Reporter Karen Braun issued this report after the

It's our weekly US grain market prices analysis and outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat. Dow Jones  Industrial Average Index settled at 41,938, -768.11 points for the week. Crude oil  settled at $78.82, +5.36. Dollar Index  settled at 109.96, +1.78. Baltic Dry Index  (a shipping freight-cost index)  settled at 1,093, +50 for the week. Corn March futures  at $4.76½, +25¾¢ for the week. Basis   (H = March; e.g. 10H means 10¢ over March futures) (Futures price + Basis = Cash pr

Highlights We really do not have a logical explanation why soybeans futures are up 68¢ the past 3 trading days and up $1.06 the past 15 trading days.     South America most likely will harvest the largest crop they have ever harvested. The world carryover is a 116 day supply; it is truly a burden for $10.50 futures. Last year’s world carryover was a 107 day supply and you well remember what a painful experience $9.52 soybean futures were last August. The dollar index was 100.

Tidbits Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag stated Sunday the Biden Administration Friday afternoon said imported used cooking oil will not qualify for tax credits under 45Z. In conclusion, she said, “Theoretically clearing the way for more soybean oil demand.”   We hope she is correct, but we did not see it that clearly. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) issued this statement late Friday regarding the Treasury’s 45Z comments issued Friday afternoon:  The U.S. Treasury today relea