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Wheat Carryover & Ukraine Production, Put Options, Rain Days Update 5/22/22

Highlights


Grain exports out of the US through the Great Lakes have reached 176,000 mts since the start of the shipping season in March. That is more than double the grain tonnage a year ago of just 64,000 mts. The Port Authority in Toledo sees grain and fertilizer the big movers this year as “trade and pricing patterns fluctuate based on various global happenings.”


More than 28 million metric tons of cargo on 2,976 vessels was shipped through the St. Lawrence Seaway in 2021.


China’s seaborne Russian oil imports will jump to a near-record 1.1 million barrels per day in May, up from 750,000 bpd in the first quarter and 800,000 bpd in 2021. Russia is selling crude oil to China $29 less per barrel than before the invasion and it is a boon for China’s oil refiners as they face shrinking margins in a slowing (COVID) economy. India is getting a discount on Russian oil also, probably the same discount as China.


Two months ago, there were analysts predicting no spring wheat would be planted in Ukraine. Thirty days ago, estimates were that spring wheat in Northern Ukraine would be at least 50% less than a year ago. World-wide respected Black Sea grain market analyst, Andrey Sizov, said he sees around a 20% decline in the planted area. He also said that when the Russian military left the Kyiv area (in Northern Ukraine), it not only allowed for additional spring wheat to be planted but also a surprisingly large corn acreage that the world marketplace has yet to recognize.


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