USDA announced this morning 132,000 mts of new crop soybeans were sold to China Note: RSI = Relative Strength Index; 70+ is over bought
Corn
Corn Situation after the close 22 February 2022 Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.24 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. December corn settled at $6.05¾ Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 16 cents 20-month high $6.06¼ made 22 February 2022 20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020 20-month range is $2.37¼
Yesterday’s closing price is: ½ of a cent below the 20 month high $2.36¾ above the 20-month low USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94 USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is Up Fundamentals are Bullish Technical Situation is Bullish, somewhat over-bought RSI 72 Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $5.85¾; the high was $6.06¾
This week's Bullish Consensus:
| Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 54% | 64% |
bearish | 10% | 10% |
neutral | 36% | 25% |
no opinion | 0% | 1% |
Soybeans
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, February 22, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
November Soybeans Settled at $14.73¼.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 41¼ cents
18-month high $14.83 on 22 February 2022
18-month low $8.81½ on 7 August 2020
18 Month Range is $6.02
Tuesday’s closing price is:
9¾ cents below the 18-month high
$5.92¼ above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 101
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 27, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation Bullish, Over-bought, RSI 82
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.25½, high was $14.83
This week's Bullish Consensus:
| Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 64% | 60% |
bearish | 10% | 14% |
neutral | 24% | 25% |
no opinion | 2% | 1% |
Wheat
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, February 22, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2022 soft red winter wheat $7.97 in January. We have not recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat… way too dry and maybe war
July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled yesterday at $8.86½
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 76 cents
19-month high: $8.89¼ February 22, 2022
19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020
19-month range is $3.86
Tuesday’s closing price is:
2¾ cents below the 19-month high
$3.83¼ above the 19-month low
2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135
2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 122, world: 129
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals are bullish, dry soil from Texas through Canada
Technical Situation is up, somewhat over-bought, RSI 76
Price Above Breakeven? Only if the yield is there, doubtful
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
Last week’s low was was $8.04¼; the high was $8.89¼
This week's Bullish Consensus:
| Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 55% | 52% |
bearish | 13% | 6% |
neutral | 29% | 30% |
no opinion | 3% | 12% |
