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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 1/11/23

Grain market summary of price outlook, seasonal situation, fundamental & technical analysis with our recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat for past week Wednesday to Tuesday.



Corn


Corn situation after the close Tuesday, January 10, 2023:

March corn settled on Tuesday at $6.55.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.15½.

The past week’s high was $6.71¾, the low was $6.48¼.

Contract high is $7.68½ made May 16, 2022;

Contract low is $3.95¾ made Dec 15, 2020;

Range is $3.72¾.

Yesterday’s closing price is:

$1.13½ below the contract high;

$2.59¼ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 34, world: 93

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 33, world: 93

Seasonal Trend is up.

Fundamentals are bullish.

Technical Situation is up.

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Lock-in the HTA on all remaining 2022 corn when March trades to $7.24

We previously recommended on May 13, 2022 pricing all 2021 and 2022 crop corn your nerves could stand when December corn was $7.50+. All those orders were filled by May 16th.



This week's Bullish Consensus

And Seasonal Chart


 

Soybeans


Soybean situation after the close Tuesday, January 10, 2023:

March Soybeans settled on Tuesday at $14.85.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.07¼.

This past week’s high was $15.06½, the low was $14.65.

Contract high is $15.72¼ on June 9, 2022;

Contract low is $9.85¾ on December 8, 2020;

Range is $5.86½.

Tuesday’s closing price is:

$0.87¼ below the contract high;

$4.99¼ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 22, world: 96

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 18, world: 98

Seasonal Trend is sideways for a few more days then down for three weeks, higher into summer.

Fundamentals are bullish, very bullish long term.

Technical Situation is uptrend.

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell HTA $15.72 (be patient and it will come)



This week's Bullish Consensus


And Seasonal Chart


 

Wheat


Wheat situation after the close Tuesday, January 10, 2023:

July 2023 KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled on Tuesday at $8.06¾.

Price change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.52¾.

Last week’s high was $8.62¼, the low was $7.99.

Contract high is $12.10 on May 19, 2022;

Contract low is $4.94 on August 4, 2020;

Range is $7.16.

Tuesday closing price is:

$4.03¼ below the contract high;

$3.12¾ above the contract low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 127, world: 127

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 112, world: 124

Seasonal Trend: the 30 year seasonal turns down next week; the five year seasonal trend is up to late March.

Fundamentals are very bullish.

Technical Situation is up.

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Place no orders to sell wheat at any price at this time.

We previously recommended pricing 2023 KC wheat at $8.35, filled March 21st.




This week's Bullish Consensus


And Seasonal Chart


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