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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 05/25/2022

Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.



Corn


Corn Situation after the close 24th May 2022: On May 13, we recommended selling old crop corn at the market, about $7.85 July futures. We are waiting to buy puts to ride this market lower. We expect to recommend buying December corn put before the end of June.

December corn settled Tuesday at $7.25¼. Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.35½ The past week’s high was $7.60½, the low was $7.14¼.

24-month high $7.66¼ made 16 May 2022; 24-month low $3.69 made June 26, 2020; 24-month range is $3.97¼. Yesterday’s closing price is: $0.41¼ below the 24-month high; $3.56¼ above the 24-month low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 31, world 90; USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 37, world 90.

Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June Fundamentals: With normal weather, the top has been made Technical Situation: Bullish Price Above Breakeven? Yes Conclusion: Sell all 2022 corn on a December HTA at $7.50.


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

73%

52%

neutral

16%

30%

bearish

2%

19%


 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 24th, 2022:

We have not called a top for old or new beans. We expect to do so no later than the 2nd week of July.

November Soybeans settled Tuesday at $15.17½.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $0.08.

This past week’s high was $15.34¾, the low was $14.87.

24-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022;

24-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020;

24-month range is $6.74.

Tuesday’s closing price is:

$0.37½ below the 24-month high;

$6.36½ above the 24-month low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 10, world 86;

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 12, world 87.

Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell

This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

42%

42%

neutral

37%

38%

bearish

20%

19%


 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 24th, 2022:

We recommended pricing July 2022 CBOT soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January.

On April 7th, 2022, we recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT Puts at 30 or better.

On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08.

July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $12.37¾.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down $1.30.

Last week’s high was $13.68, the low was $12.19¼.

24-month high is $13.79¼ on May 17, 2022;

24-month low is $5.03¼ on August 24th, 2020;

24-month range is $8.76.

Tuesday closing price is:

$1.41½ below the 24-month high;

$7.34½ above the 24-month low.

USDA’s 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 124, world 129;

USDA’s 2022 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US 120, world 124.

Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals outlook is bearish

Technical Situation is down short term, up long term

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08 or higher, get it sold

Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st, get it sold


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

59%

52%

neutral

22%

32%

bearish

17%

16%


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