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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 05/04/2022

Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.


The Federal Reserve just announced a half percent (50 basis points) interest rate increase, market was looking for a 50 tp 75 basis point increase.


Corn


Corn Situation after the close 3 May 2022

Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.

May 2022 corn made its high April 29th at $8.24½ and settled yesterday at $8.00¾.

December corn settled at $7.35¼ on Tuesday, 3 May 2022

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 8¼ cents

24-month high $7.57 made 29 April 2022, $1.19 above the Dec corn 2021 high

24-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020

24-month range is $3.88


Yesterday’s closing price is:

21¾ cents below the 24-month high

$3.66¼ above the 24-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 93


Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t sell


The past week’s low was $7.30¾; the high was $7.57


May 4th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

50%

66%

neutral

39%

16%

bearish

11%

16%

no opinion

0%

2%


 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022:

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