Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.
The Federal Reserve just announced a half percent (50 basis points) interest rate increase, market was looking for a 50 tp 75 basis point increase.
Corn
Corn Situation after the close 3 May 2022
Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.
May 2022 corn made its high April 29th at $8.24½ and settled yesterday at $8.00¾.
December corn settled at $7.35¼ on Tuesday, 3 May 2022
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 8¼ cents
24-month high $7.57 made 29 April 2022, $1.19 above the Dec corn 2021 high
24-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
24-month range is $3.88
Yesterday’s closing price is:
21¾ cents below the 24-month high
$3.66¼ above the 24-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 93
Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $7.30¾; the high was $7.57
May 4th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:
Corn | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 50% | 66% |
neutral | 39% | 16% |
bearish | 11% | 16% |
no opinion | 0% | 2% |
Soybeans
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.59 on May 2nd.
November Soybeans Settled May 3rdat $14.78¼
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 24½ cents.
24 Month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high
24 Month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020
24 Month Range is $6.74
Tuesday’s closing price is:
76¾ cents below the 24-month high
$5.97¼ above the 24-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 104
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 90
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.76¼, high was $15.40½.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Soybeans | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 51% | 42% |
neutral | 16% | 53% |
bearish | 30% | 5% |
no opinion | 3% | 0% |
Wheat
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022:
We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $10.45½ on May 3rd, 2022.
On April 7th, 2022, we recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT Puts at 30 or better. Filled. The premium of the $9.00 put yesterday ‘s close was 25¼ cents.
On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.
July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $10.92¾.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 71¾ cents
24-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022
24-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020
24-month range is $7.55¾
Friday’s closing price is:
$1.66¼ below the 24-month high
$5.89½ above the 24-month low
2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 136
2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 130, world: 128
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals outlook is bearish
Technical Situation is sideways
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08
Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $10.43 yesterday.
Last week’s low July 2022 was $10.86¾; the high was $11.65¼.
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Wheat | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 51% | 25% |
neutral | 24% | 56% |
bearish | 22% | 17% |
no opinion | 3% | 2% |
