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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 04/20/2022

Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.


Corn


Corn Situation after the close 19 April 2022

Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.

May 2022 corn made its high April 19th at $8.19¾ and settled yesterday at $8.04.

December corn settled at $7.47 on Tuesday, 19 April 2022

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 16 cents


20-month high $7.55 made 19 April 2022, $1.17 above the Dec corn 2021 high

20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020

20-month range is $3.86


Yesterday’s closing price is:

8 cents below the 20-month high

$3.78 above the 20-month low


USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 93


Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish, but over bought short term

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t sell


The past week’s low was $7.24¼; the high was $7.55


April 19th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:

Corn

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

73%

74%

neutral

13%

17%

bearish

12%

9%

no opinion

4%

0%


 

Soybeans


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 19, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $17.16½ on April 19th.

November Soybeans Settled April 19th at $15.20¼

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 13¾ cents.

18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high

18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020

18 Month Range is $6.74


Tuesday’s closing price is:

34¾ cents below the 18-month high

$6.39¼ above the 18-month low


USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 104

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 90


Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell


This past week’s low was $14.90¼, high was $15.28¾


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

59%

50%

neutral

25%

41%

bearish

12%

9%

no opinion

4%

0%


 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 19, 2022:

We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $11.12½ on April 12, 2022.

On April 7th, 2022, recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT Puts at 30 or better. Filled. Premium of the $9.00 put today 23 cents.

On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.

July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $11.76¼.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 9½ cents


24-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022

24-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

24-month range is $7.55¾


Friday’s closing price is:

82¾ below the 19-month high

$6.73 above the 19-month low


2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 136

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 130, world: 128


Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals outlook is neutral

Technical Situation is sideways

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08


Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $10.61½ yesterday.

Last week’s low July 2022 was $10.86¾; the high was $11.43½


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Grainstats

Wright on the Market

bullish

60%

41%

neutral

22%

47%

bearish

16%

12%

no opinion

2%

0%