Summary & recommendations for corn, soybeans and wheat this week.
Corn
Corn Situation after the close 12 April 2022
Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.
May 2022 corn made its high April 12th at $7.79 and settled yesterday at $7.76¼.
December corn settled at $7.31 on Tuesday, 12 April 2022
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 24½ cents
20-month high $7.32¾ made 12 April 2022, 94¾ cents above the Dec corn 2021 high
20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
20-month range is $3.63¾
Yesterday’s closing price is:
1¾ cents below the 20-month high
$3.62 above the 20-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 93
Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish, but over bought short term
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $6.99½; the high was $7.32¾
April 13th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:
Corn | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 74% | 82% |
neutral | 15% | 16% |
bearish | 7% | 2% |
no opinion | 4% | 0% |
Soybeans
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 12, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.70¼ on April 12th.
November Soybeans Settled at $15.07
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 51¼ cents.
18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high
18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020
18 Month Range is $6.74
Tuesday’s closing price is:
48 cents below the 18-month high
$6.26 above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 104
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 90
Seasonal Trend is up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.37, high was $15.10¾
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Soybeans | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 66% | 71% |
neutral | 18% | 22% |
bearish | 12% | 7% |
no opinion | 4% | 0% |
Wheat
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 12, 2022:
We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $11.12½ on April 12, 2022.
On April 7th, 2022, recommended buying September $9.00 CBOT puts at 30 or better. Filled. Premium of the $9.00 put today is 19 cents.
On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.
July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $11.66¾.
Price Change Tuesday to Friday: up 82½ cents
19-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022
19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020
19-month range is $7.55¾
Friday’s closing price is:
92¼ below the 19-month high
$6.63½ above the 19-month low
2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 136
2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 130, world: 128
Seasonal Trend is down
Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War
continues into July, neither of which is likely
Technical Situation is overbought short term, up long term
Price Above Breakeven? Yes.
Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08
Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $10.34¼ yesterday.
Last week’s low July 2022 was $11.38; the high was $11.79½
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Wheat | Grainstats | Wright on the Market |
bullish | 61% | 42% |
neutral | 31% | 51% |
bearish | 6% | 4% |
no opinion | 2% | 3% |
