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Weekly Summary & Recommendations 04/07/2022

Corn


Corn Situation after the close 5 April 2022


Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended since June 29, 2021 pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.22 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up. May corn traded above $6.22 on January 25, 2022.


May 2022 corn made a new high on March 4th at $7.82¾ and settled yesterday at $7.59¾.


December corn settled at $7.06½ on Tuesday, 5th of April 2022

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 53¾ cents

20-month high $7.12½ made 5 April 2022, 42½ cents above the Dec corn 2021 high

20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020

20-month range is $3.11¾


Yesterday’s closing price is:

5¾ cents below the 20-month high

$3.37½ above the 20-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 93

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 35, world: 92


Seasonal Trend is up into third week of June

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t sell


The past week’s low was $6.51½; the high was $7.12½


April 6th, 2022, Bullish Consensus:

​Corn

Wright on the Market

Grainstats

bullish

71%

73%

neutral

21%

16%

bearish

8%

2%

no opinion

0%

9%


 

Soybeans


USDA announced this morning 132,000 mt of old crop beans were sold to China.


Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 5th, 2022:

We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.

Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents. May beans settled at $16.31 on April 5th.


November Soybeans Settled at $14.55¾

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 7¼ cents.

18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022, 75 cents above the November 2021 high

18-month low $8.81 on 7 August 2020

18 Month Range is $6.74

Tuesday’s closing price is:

99¼ cents below the 18-month high

$5.74¾ above the 18-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 103

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 24, world: 90


Seasonal Trend is up

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation is Bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Don’t Sell


This past week’s low was $13.99½, high was $14.82

This week's Bullish Consensus:

Soybeans

Wright on the Market

Grainstats

bullish

55%

55%

neutral

30%

21%

bearish

12%

16%

no opinion

2%

8%


 

Wheat


Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, April 5th, 2022:

We recommended pricing July 2022 soft red winter wheat at $7.97 in January. It settled at $10.45½ on April 5th, 2022.


On Monday, March 7, 2022 we recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat at the market on the opening, which was $12.08. The high that day was $12.59.


July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Tuesday at $10.84¼.

Price Change Tuesday to Friday: up 60 cents

19-month high: $12.59 March 7, 2022

19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

19-month range is $7.55¾


Friday’s closing price is:

$1.74¾ below the 19-month high

$5.81 above the 19-month low

2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 123, world: 130


Seasonal Trend is down

Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War

continues into July, neither of which is likely

Technical Situation is sideways short term, up long term

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at $12.08

Sell 2023 HTA KC July wheat $8.35, filled March 21st; settled at $9.41¼ yesterday.

Last week’s low July 2022 was $10.12½; the high was $11.00½


This week's Bullish Consensus:

Wheat

Wright on the Market

Grainstats

bullish

38%

56%

neutral

50%

24%

bearish

9%

13%

no opinion

3%

7%


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