Weekly Summary & Recommendations 03/03/2022
Corn Situation after the close 1 March 2022
Even though we expected old crop futures to exceed $7, we recommended pricing 2021 corn when nearby futures were $6.24 to eliminate risk and prepare to buy puts when high is made this spring or early summer to make the money on the way down not made on the way up.
December corn settled at $6.24¾
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 19 cents
20-month high $6.46¼ made 24 February 20
2l, 7¾ cents above the Dec 2021 high
20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
20-month range is $2.77¼
Yesterday’s closing price is:
21½ cents below the 20 month high
$2.55¾ above the 20-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is Up and then down last three weeks of March
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $5.77¼; the high was $6.46¼
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Grainstats.com: Wright on the Market
Corn
80% bullish 75%
11% neutral 15%
4% bearish 8%
5% no opinion 2%
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 1, 2022:
We recommended pricing 2021 beans March futures at $14.78 to establish a floor even though we expected the old crop high to be early summer over $17.00 at which time, we recommend you buy puts to make money on the way down not made on the way up.
Update: May soybeans traded to $17.59¼ on 24 February, exceeding the 2020 old crop high by 91¾ cents
November Soybeans Settled at $14.77.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 3¾ cents
18-month high $15.55 on 24 February 2022
18-month low $8.81½ on 7 August 2020
18 Month Range is $6.73½
Tuesday’s closing price is:
78 cents below the 18-month high
$5.95½ above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 101
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 27, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is Up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $14.03, high was $15.55
This week's Bullish Consensus:
Grainstats.com Wright on the Market
74% bullish 67%
11% neutral 21%
8% bearish 9%
7% no opinion 3%
Wheat Situation After the Close Tuesday, March 1, 2022: We recommended pricing 2022 soft red winter wheat $7.97 in January. We have not recommended pricing July KC hard red winter wheat… way too dry and war. July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled yesterday at $9.90¾ Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up $1.04¼ 19-month high: $9.90¾ March 1, 2022 19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020 19-month range is $4.87½ Tuesday’s closing price is: 0 cents below the 19-month high $4.87½ above the 19-month low 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 122, world: 129 Seasonal Trend is down Fundamentals are bullish Technical Situation is up, over bought short term Price Above Breakeven? Only if the yield is there, which is doubtful Conclusion: Don’t Sell Last week’s low was $8.76¾; the high was $9.90¾ This week's Bullish Consensus: Grainstats.com Wright on the Market 79% bullish 72% 10% neutral 17% 5% bearish 4% 6% no opinion 7%
