Weekly analysis for the Corn, Soybeans and Wheat market situation.
Old Crop Corn Situation After the Close Tues, Feb 1st, 2022
March corn was up 14¾ cents this past week; settled at $6.34¾.
The target price we had been recommending since late June of $6.24 was attained this past week to establish a floor under the 2021 corn.
We expect the old crop top to be May to July over $7.00.
Now we shift to new crop corn. Note that when we recommend you price new crop corn, will most likely be when we will also recommend you buy puts for the old crop corn you have already sold. On to new crop corn:
December corn settled at $5.77¾
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 8 cents
20-month high $5.79¾ made yesterday
20-month low $3.68¾ made June 26, 2020
20-month range is $2.11
Yesterday’s closing price is:
2 cents below the 19-month high
$2.09 above the 19-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 30, world: 94
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 38, world: 92
Seasonal Trend is Up
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation is Bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t sell
The past week’s low was $5.64½; the high was $5.79¾
This week's Bullish Consensus:
51% bullish
15% bearish
28% neutral
6% no opinion
Old Crop Soybean Situation After the Close Tues, Feb 1st, 2022
March soybeans were up $1.21¼ this past week; settled at $15.28½
The target price we had been recommending since July 13th of $14.78 was attained this past week to establish a floor under your 2021 beans.
We expect the top of the old crop beans to be May to July over $17.00.
Now we shift to new crop beans. Note that when we recommend you price new crop beans will most likely be when we will also recommend you buy puts for the old crop beans you have already sold.
On to new crop soybeans:
November Soybeans Settled at $13.82.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 81¼ cents
18-month high $13.89 made yesterday.
18-month low $8.81 on August 7, 2020
18 Month Range is $5.08
Tuesday’s closing price is:
7 cents below the 18-month high
$5.01 above the 18-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 100
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 29, world: 93
Seasonal Trend is down until Feb 10th then up into 2nd week July
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation over bought short term, bullish long term
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Don’t Sell
This past week’s low was $13.08¾, high was $13.89
This week's Bullish Consensus:
57% bullish
17% bearish
13% neutral
13% no opinion
CBOT Wheat Situation After the Close Tues, Feb 1st, 2022
July CBOT wheat was down 66 cents this past week; settled at $7.67½. The target price we had been recommending since the November highs in the $8.50 area or no later than January.
The first week of January, we lowered he target to $7.97, which was attained the first and fourth week of January. Now we shift to July KC hard red winter wheat. July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled at $7.88½
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: down 45 cents 19-month high: $8.71½ November 24th, 2021 19-month low $5.03½ August 24th, 2020 19-month range is $3.68
Tuesday’s closing price is: 83 cents below the 19-month high $2.85 above the 19-month low 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 117, world: 130
Seasonal Trend is down Fundamentals: Bullish due to dry from West Texas through Canada Technical situation is sideway to up Price Above Breakeven? Only if the yield is there, which it won’t be Conclusion: Don’t Sell
Last week’s low was $7.80; the high was $8.31¾
This week's Bullish Consensus: 25% bullish 29% bearish 38% neutral 8% no opinion
