Tidbits
Market advisor, Kevin Duling of Maupin, Oregon is a wheat guy and tracks S&D numbers. He is the best wheat guy we know. If you have a lot of financial risk due to unsold wheat, we encourage you to give Kevin a call.
Here are his post USDA report wheat comments:
For (world) wheat, USDA went back to the old playbook of increasing stocks from last year to pad the books for this year. Any time the balance sheet starts looking too tight, USDA adds in bushels from a prior year. In this case, it was a lot. 1.5 mmts were added to last year’s carryout at the same time production was bumped nearly 6 mmts, for almost a 7.5 mmt gain to supply, which is huge.
Demand was increased by 2 mmts, with the USDA playing the game the retail stores do by putting the price at $99.90 so they can say it is less than $100. In this case, world demand is increased to 799.9 mmts, so we still drop carryout, and especially so within the exporters.