The Chinese blue-chip CSI 300 stock index was barely up last week, but up 0.066%, none-the-less, and that made three consecutive weeks of gains, its best run since March. And the world breathed a sigh of relief…
The majority of soybeans in Mato Grosso that got planted sometime during the past two months are either dead or look terrible and in desperate need of water. But there is nothing wrong with the beans that 2 inches of rain (55 mm) every other day for a couple weeks will not fix. Even the beans that are not planted yet will make very good yields if the rainy season starts within 45 days. Of course, if the rains never come, the Mato Grosso beans will be very poor, but the rains will probably come. Therefore, if you will need cash or want to reduce interest on borrowed money as soon as possible, you need to be ready to sell cash beans in that $14 to $14.25 area.
Given the tight carryover, strong demand for meal and oil, plus El Niño weather, we still expect much higher soybean prices in the late spring. If you sell your beans in the $14 area, we recommend you be prepared to buy September or November put options if and when July beans reach the $17+ area and make the money on the way down you did not make on the way up.
Corn is a completely different matter.