December corn settled above its 200-day moving average yesterday, 2½¢ below $6.00 and just a half cent from its high for the day. It is remarkable, no, simply amazing, that CBOT commodities could have such a strong week and close on a Friday with huge gains near their highs for the day before a three-day weekend. In all his year’s in this business, Roger has never seen a market with such confidence in a bullish weather forecast and that includes four Corn Belt droughts starting with the 1980 drought and the 1993 flood too.
Make no mistake, corn is the leader. The corn crop is made or lost in July and the bean crop is made or lost in August. Bean futures could go to $18.00 in late June or July and be down to $13.20 on August 25th when the September options expire. If you still have your September puts, do not bail on them now. In fact, get your open orders in to buy the $400 and the $410 September meal puts at $5 or whatever price you paid for the $350 up to the $390.
The GFS model has been more correct than the Euro on Midwest temperature forecasts, but the Euro forecast model has been more correct on precipitation.