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The War Is Not Over, Russia-Ukraine, Tidbits & Rain Days 02/27/2022

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I reported to you Friday morning Ukraine's President Zelensky had surrendered and about half of Ukrainian military people refused to stop fighting. They disobeyed the order to honor the truce. The Russian Army was on the outskirts of the capital city, Kyiv, as Zelensky was preparing to leave Kyiv, fearing for his life.

What we know is the news media reports the fighting continues. There are many news stories of what has happened and why it happened. Many, probably most, of the news reports are fake from both sides.

Here is what we think is truth:

Friday evening US time (Ukraine is 7 hours ahead of Eastern time) Biden said $250 million in aid was being sent to Ukraine. Saturday he said $350 million was being sent.

Saturday morning, it was reported that Turkey had closed the Straits of the Dardanelles to Russian Naval forces and cargo vessels. However, that has been disputed by some Turkish officials and Russia says it has not been so informed. The Dardanelles connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea and then the Atlantic Ocean.

Turkey is a member of NATO. All NATO members are pledged to come to the aid with full force of military combat power if any NATO member is attacked. And right there is the potential for major military confrontation if Russia would attack military forces of Turkey, which would be highly likely if the Dardanelles are closed to Russian shipping.

Both sides have agreed to negotiations. The Russian delegation is waiting to meet with the Ukraine delegation in Belarus. Ukraine says they will not meet in Belarus because Belarus supported the attack on Ukraine.

At dawn this morning, news reports from Kyiv say the city is surrounded by Russian military units.

 

A lot could happen today to change the grain market outlook for tonight’s CBOT opening, but right now we have to say modestly higher, led by soybeans.

The Tech Guy informed me that, because CBOT and KC wheat closed with limit moves two consecutive days (limit up Thursday then limit down Friday), the trading limit for Monday is $1.50 per bushel, which probably eliminates the possibility of a limit move Monday… I hope.

Jinghe Zhao is an independent soybean market analyst. He reports China’s internal grain traders are saying 700,000 tons of government owned soybean reserves will be auctioned every week for the next 9 weeks. Given that China’s soybean prices are at an all-time high and the quantity of the Brazilian crop getting to the port does not nearly meet the current ship demand, the rumor is probably true. If so, all those soybean reserves will be replaced later this year. Be slow to sell new crop beans as Brazil will run out of soybeans to export a month or two sooner than usual this year.

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