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Tech Guy Opening Calls & Comments 8/16/23

Sep Wheat - Steady to 1 Higher

Dec Corn - Steady to 2 Higher

Nov Beans - Steady

The 1309 November Soybean support was violated for only about 6 to 7 trading hours yesterday and last night. Price sold off to about 1304 and found the fund buyers, then quickly rebounded to close today above 1323.

This price action in beans is clearly consolidation/indecision and this back and forth action is creating a contracting triangle on the 2 hour chart. It is marking lower highs and higher lows.

This squeezing of price is a significant building of energy. November Beans will break out one way very soon and I believe this will be higher. Remember the bigger picture - beans are in a #2 corrective wave on the daily chart.

The trend is still up on the daily, so we are looking for an eventual leg higher that takes out the July 24th B wave high of 1435. Support should be 1315 and resistance is first at the price of 1376 to 1380 (overhead gap).

The next resistance higher is the head & shoulders target of 1399 on the 1 hour chart. Check out the 2 hour November Beans.

December Corn marked a low print at the open of last evening's trading session, then rallied the rest of the day. The 473.5 low price was 3.5 cents from the 477 target low (measuring gap target). Today's 6.25 cent higher close helps confirm the 473.5 low.

Last night's low should be the final low based on the price action today and trading volume yesterday. I am looking for a close of 493 or higher first, then a close above 507.5, the report day high. Support should be 479 - I know that's not very far down from the close of 481.75.

Corn should be marking an impulse wave higher, therefore the Elliot wave rules state that this correction should not trade lower than the top of the last leg. You will see this labeled on the 15 minute December Corn chart.

I can't ignore the forecast of hot and dry over a good portion of the corn belt forecasted to the end of August. Maybe this will provide the impetus for the fund longs to defend their positions in corn and beans.

September Wheat keeps on selling off, despite the growing war threat in Ukraine. My confidence is only moderate, but the daily wheat chart painted a morning Doji Star bar that made a lower low.

The open and close were identical and when these type of bars occur after several day long downtrend, it is a decent bet that the low for the leg has been printed. The pattern needs a green up day tomorrow to confirm a low. Let's look out for this.

This is an article about this Doji pattern from the Candlescanner website.

Here is the daily September Wheat chart.

The S&P has broken the uptrend line on the daily chart. Therefore, it is entering into a larger correction both in time and price, that should have 2 down legs with a corrective upleg in between. Currently, we are in the 1st down leg. It has a target of about 4325, where the gap is.

As you know, this gap acts as a magnet and is unfinished business. The last leg higher took about 4.5 months to finish, so the correction could end in about 1.5 months from the top. That would be about the middle of September, give or take. September and October are known to mark a seasonal low in the stock markets.

Here is today's September S&P chart.


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