Weekly Ag Market News Rewind 10/25/26
Fuel: President Trump said on Monday the USDA will launch what he called a new "harvest fuel relief program" that will provide farmers with $8 billion in support to offset diesel costs during the harvest season.
The program will provide what the department called "proportional support to producers using a uniform formula to cover a portion of modeled losses during the 2026 crop year."
The $8 billion in payments would be administered by the department's Farm Service Agency.
Brazilian farmers had planted 26% of soybeans as of last Thursday, up from 15% a week earlier and above the 24% registered a year ago. Rainfall boosted planting progress in states that were still dependent on improved soil moisture, particularly Mato Grosso and Goias. But excessive rainfall largely halted fieldwork in Parana.
Brazil's first corn crop planting reached 48% in the center-south region, compared with 44% a week earlier and 51% a year ago. In southern Brazil, the final stages of corn planting continue to advance slowly as excessive rainfall hampers fieldwork.
Brazil’s Presidential Election is today. While the only immediate impact of that election will be the value of the Brazilian currency versus the U.S. Dollar. If the conservative candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, wins, the real will strengthen, which makes Brazil’s products less competitive in the world marketplace with U.S. products. If the current Socialist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins, the real will weaken.
Regardless of who wins, widespread protests and celebrating will occur and some participants will become rioters. The riots could become a threat to topple the government and slow exports.
EU Crops:
EU 2026/27 imports of corn are up 40% year over year. Soybean imports are down 2.5%. Meal imports are 16% higher. While soft wheat exports are unchanged from a year ago.
Despite a forecast increase in planted area, oilseeds production in the European Union is expected to decline 1%. The recent widespread hot and dry weather has taken a significant toll on the EU’s soybean, rapeseed and sunflower seed crops. As a result, imports are forecast to increase by 7% to meet demand.
French grain maize output is on track to halve from a year ago, to 7 million metric tons, after lower sowings and record hot, dry weather ravaged crops. That would be the lowest level since 1976. The collapse in maize production will also lead to France importing significant amounts of maize this season, for the first time ever, notably from Brazil and Ukraine.
Russia has completed winter sowing on 70% of the planned area. The Ministry lowered the sowing target from 20 to 19 million hectares for the 2026 season.
Between 2022 and 2026, wheat acreage in Russia decreased by 3 million hectares, which is equivalent to a potential harvest of 13 million mts. This decline has been consistent and is accelerating in absolute terms. Large agricultural holdings accounted for approximately 35% of this reduction, with small-scale farms accounting for about 65%. The primary reason for this shift is a transition toward corn and sunflower cultivation, which offer ~50% higher profit.
Russia has sown 790,000 hectares of winter rapeseed in 2026, a 52% increase over 2025. Rapeseed is emerging as a primary alternative to winter wheat in the southern part of the country, driven by higher profit margins and guaranteed market access.
This shift from wheat to rapeseed is taking place against a backdrop of falling grain prices. The price for 4th-class wheat currently stands at about $108 per tonne or ~$3 per bushel, the lowest level in eight years. At this price point, growing wheat in the southern regions has become unprofitable.
Veg Oils:
Indonesia's local palm oil mills have cut their fresh fruit purchases because storage tanks are filled with processed oil they cannot ship. The prolonged drought driven by "super El Niño" has dried out the area's main transportation artery, the Kapuas River.
Of the nine vegetable oils, palm oil is the world’s most plentiful and most traded vegetable oil.
The USDA’s October balance sheet pegs global sunflower seed and oil production with a 13% increase over the 2025/26 season, while oil stocks have nonetheless tightened. Growth in demand from India, Turkey, and the Middle East is outpacing the rise in supply. Consequently, the global sunflower oil balance is shifting from a state of surplus to physical supply deficit.
India has reduced the base import duty on crude sunflower oil from 10% to 0% recently. Imports are likely to increase by 30% for this season, reaching 3.5 million mts. Soybean oil imports are expected to decline by 11% to 5 million, while palm oil imports are projected to remain stable at 8 million tons.
Fertilizer: Josh Linville from StoneX says tight nitrogen supplies, rising demand and global disruptions to sulfur supplies are keeping pressure on fertilizer markets. Fertilizer prices could remain elevated into spring 2027, even if geopolitical tensions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. He says the disruptions have already caused too much damage to global fertilizer supply chains for markets to recover quickly. While easing tensions could help bring some prices down, Linville says a return to previous price levels is unlikely in the near term.
Eight fertilizer manufacturing projects will receive $1.34 billion funding through the USDA’s Fertilizer Investment & Expansion for Long-Term Domestic Supply Program.
USDA economic analysis estimates that the additional production could reduce nitrogen fertilizer prices by 4.4% and potash prices by 5.3%, while increasing domestic nitrogen production by 3.7% and potash production by nearly 40% once the projects are operational. The projects will support new and expanded manufacturing capacity for nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and sulfur fertilizers across the United States. These investments are expected to support approximately 1.08 million mts of annual domestic fertilizer production and capacity across the selected projects. No timeline was specified though.
America’s fertilizer industry has become increasingly consolidated, leaving farmers with fewer suppliers and less competition. Four companies control approximately 77% of North American nitrogen fertilizer production capacity, two companies account for more than 90% of phosphate production capacity, and two companies produce approximately 90% of North America’s potash.
Ag Secretary Rollins says USDA is working to address rising farm input costs and potential anticompetitive practices in agriculture. She says addressing decades of policy and industry consolidation will take time.
Cattle, Milk and Meat reports were released by USDA during the week.
Cattle On Feed was 99.5% of a year ago, Placements on feed were 88%, Fed Marketings were 93.3%.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.3 million head, 1.7% more than a year ago.
United States egg production totaled 9.2 billion during September, up 6% from last year. The average number of layers totaled 385 million, up 5% from last year.
Broiler egg hatch was up 2% than the same week a year ago.
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