Weekly Ag Market News Rewind 10/18/26
US harvest was at 46% for soybeans and 33% for corn, behind the 39% five-year average. Soybean yields are coming in better than expected. A strong dollar and harvest hedging pressured markets. Weather is expected to be dry for the upcoming week, allowing a rapid harvest progression.
Canada's farmers struggled to harvest this year's crops due to an unseasonably wet September, and farmers and crop quality assessors reported damage to pulse crops and spring wheat.
Most farmers have since completed harvesting, but the crop many brought in was degraded from the top quality prospect they had at the end of August. Official government and industry estimates reflecting the damage won't come until mid-November.
U.S. tractor sales fell 16.4%, while combine sales declined 10.9% year-over-year in September 2026, according to sales data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.
Canadian tractor sales dipped 15.1% from last year, while Canadian combine sales dropped 37.6%.
U.S. inflation is rising. Retail prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% for the year, and wholesale prices jumped 1.3% for the month, with a 6.3% annual gain, due to high energy costs. Rate hikes are now more likely, which would strengthen the dollar and hurt exports.
NOPA crush for September was 196.3 million bushels of soybeans, below the trade estimate and less than a year ago. This is the first year to year decline for any month since March 2025. No question, the lack of soybeans in many areas restricted crush bushels.
Soy oil stocks at 1.053 billion pounds were below trade estimates and the lowest in nearly 12 years. Clearly the demand for soy oil remained strong in September and soybean meal October futures made its contract high on 24 September.
The International Grain Council (IGC) in its latest report pegged global corn production for the 2026-27 marketing year at 1.307 billion tonnes, up from 1.301 billion in September but down from 1.347 billion in 2025-26.
The Council’s projected wheat output remained unchanged from September at 820 million tonnes. If realized, it would represent a 3% decline year on year.
While global wheat and corn consumption is seen remaining relatively flat month to month and year to year, total grains ending stocks are expected to decline by 3% from 2025-26 to 619 million tonnes, the Council said.
Chiefly due to an anticipated record US outturn and an expected sizable crop in South America, world soybean production is forecast to increase by 2% year on year to a record 439 million tonnes.
The IGC sees soybean carryover stocks falling 5% from a year ago, to 74 million tons.
Brazil's 2026/27 soybean output is expected to reach a record 181.6 million mts, crop agency Conab said, up 0.7% from the previous season, driven by a 1.4% increase in planted area.
The area expansion would be the smallest in 20 years as farmers face lower margins and uncertainty related to the El Niño weather pattern.
Soybean yields are seen falling 0.8% year-on-year, while exports are expected to grow 1.5% to almost 118 million mts.
Total corn production is seen at 148 million mts, up 2.4% from the previous season. First corn crop seen at 32.1 million mts, up 8.9%; second crop seen at 113.2 million mts, up 0.4%.
Corn exports are estimated at 46 million mts, up 4.8% from the previous season, while domestic consumption is set to rise 6.6% to 104.8 million mts on growing demand for ethanol production.
China is set to import at least 6 million mts of corn this marketing year, up from 4 and 1.8 million mts the past two years. Most of the corn will be coming from Mercosur (South American economic and political trade bloc) countries even as China keeps pushing higher domestic production on a stable area with subsidies and cheap state auctions, according to the USDA’s Beijing office.
Within the Mercosur bloc, Brazil has been China’s top corn supplier since 2023, ahead of the U.S. and Ukraine, with 360,000 mts loaded in September and more than 710,000 mts lined up for October. Brazil is also China’s only DDGS supplier.
Argentina shipped 544,000 mts to China in the first nine months of 2026, making them China’s third-largest corn supplier source after Russia, whose corn sales rose 38% from a year ago. U.S. corn is uncompetitive for Chinese buyers even before Beijing’s extra 10% tariff.
COFCO Futures analysts expect China's new-crop corn production to increase by 5-8 million metric tons from last year, largely driven by gains in North China.
Chinese soybean purchases have slowed significantly since late September, purchases were estimated at just over 15 million mts. Hopes continue that China will ramp up purchases, as Sinograin is making auctions to rotate the stocks.
Biofuel: The US Environmental Protection Agency proposed on Tuesday to make larger refiners blend more biofuels into their products over the next two years. The EPA proposed reallocating 100% of those waived fuel volume obligations.
The EPA in August decided to grant small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year, which was the largest ever, and drew sharp criticism from biofuel producers and farm groups, which argued they would reduce demand for ethanol and biodiesel and undermine markets for agricultural feedstocks.
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