Weekly Ag Market News Rewind 10/11/26
October S&D Report:
The shock of Friday’s USDA’s Crop Production Report was the corn yield was higher than any pre-report estimates, up 2.7 bpa from the previous reports, at 181.2 bushel per acre. That resulted in the 2026 corn production being increased by 234 million bushels, with the market expecting an 84 million bushel reduction. That was on top of the 173 million bushels increase in the carry-in we knew was coming because of the 2025 crop carryover reported on the 30 September stocks report as of 1 September 2026. Adding 407 million bushels to the supply in 10 days is tough on a market and December corn did lose 42¢ since 29 September through Friday’s close.
The painful reality is the 42¢ lost since the Stocks report was issued takes corn prices for most of you folks from a little above breakeven to below breakeven. The USDA’s national average price expected to be paid for 2026 corn was reduced by 10¢ to $4.70.
The positive news is the carryover remains way less than 2 billion bushels, a number analysts consider “burdensome.” At 1,849 million bushels, the projected carryout is a 41 day supply. A year ago, we were looking at a corn carryover of 2,110 million bushels, a 48 day supply and a national average price of $3.90.
The USDA is not giving nearly enough respect to the Black Sea shipping being shut down. Ukraine is the fourth leading corn exporter in the world and USDA expects Ukraine to export 22 million mts this marketing year after exporting 22.24 mill mts last year and 20.02 million mts the year before that. USDA has Russia exporting 3.7 million mts this year after 3.4 million mts last year and 3.0 the year before that.
The Black Sea shipments remain restricted. Peace talk rumors briefly pushed grain prices lower, though the World Bank now expects fighting to continue into 2027.
In August 2025, USDA “dumped” 1,002 million bushels into the 2025 crop marketing year, putting the carryover at 2,117 million bushels, a 48 day supply. Last month, that year’s carryover was down to 1,922 million bushels, 42 day supply.
U.S. wheat carryover increased by 5 days’ use on slightly higher supply and lower demand.
Soybeans were about the same, but the yield rose by three-tenth to 53.1 bpa.
The EU corn faced its worst harvest in two decades. According to Eurostat, the total EU grain maize harvest amounted to 50.2 million mts, a 12% decrease compared to 2025 and 18% below the 10-year average. Yields fell from 9.8 mts per hectare in 2025 to 8.6 mts per hectare in 2026 — a 12% drop.
U.S. corn exports to the EU surged to 1.24 million mts (49 million bu.) in August, the highest monthly total among the current EU countries since June 1982. While 2025/26 U.S. corn shipments to the EU totaled 7.9 million mts (311 million bu.), the most since 1983/84.
U.S. harvest is lagging to the average pace. As of October 4, corn was 23% harvested (27% average) and soybeans 25% (33% average).
Weekly U.S. exports inspections were high, but sales were disappointing.
Farmer sentiment fell in September, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sliding to 123 points from 135 in August, as a record percentage of respondents cited high input costs as their top worry and less than half said the U.S. was on the “right track.” 22% of producers said they expect their operation to be better off financially, while 35% expected worse off a year from now.
Brazil corn exports fell 31% in September from a year ago to 5.2 million tonnes. The slump comes in the months when Brazil normally competes hardest with US corn on world markets. The average price per tonne rose 20.4% to $239, currency exchange made a major impact. The January to September total was 19.7 million tonnes, down 15% from the previous year.
Analysts said the United States and Argentina are offering more competitive corn, and Argentina is chasing the same buyers as Brazil.
Forecasts for Brazil corn exports this season have fallen from 42.5 million tonnes to about 38 million. Reaching even that level would require a strong finish in the last months of the year.
For US corn growers and exporters, a weaker Brazilian season means less competition for overseas buyers. It comes as a late harvest and slipping crop ratings are already supporting prices.
Fuel: President Trump signed an executive order allowing farmers and other qualifying users to temporarily use red-dyed diesel on public highways through December 31 without the normal federal penalties. The administration is also considering delaying or potentially forgiving the 24.4¢ federal diesel tax on that fuel. State fuel taxes are separate, so the final savings will depend on whether individual states follow the federal government's lead.
Trump announced that he had agreed on "immediate" deliveries of 300,000 mts (not gallons!) of diesel from Russia to the U.S. and the global market. And another 500,000 mts during November. Followed by more than 4 million mts of diesel over a short period of time depending on the condition of Russian refineries. Previously, such exports were under sanctions and then banned by Russia to help the domestic supply.
Biofuel: On September 28, Maersk announced the successful bunkering of Tangier Maersk, which is a dual-fuel alcohol-enabled container vessel, using 100% U.S.-produced corn ethanol, at the Port of Houston. Ocean carriers are testing ethanol as an alternative to methanol to add fuel flexibility: while their methanol-capable fleet has grown, supplies remain limited of methanol that complies with greenhouse-gas-emission standards. In September, the National Laboratory of the Rockies affirmed ethanol’s viability as a vessel fuel substitute for methanol and named ethanol’s advantages, including higher energy content. The report also confirmed that large dual-fuel methanol engines can operate on ethanol with little or no modification.
According to the report, about 115 methanol capable vessels are currently in operation and 300 on order. If U.S. ethanol bunkering infrastructure develops, these emerging vessels could be a significant source of demand for U.S. ethanol and corn.
In a separate report, they kept its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 almost unchanged at 2.979 billion metric tons, 2.1% below the previous year's peak but still the second-largest harvest on record. The world cereal trade forecast was cut by 0.7% from last month, citing lower wheat and maize export expectations amid constrained Black Sea shipping.
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