The high on March soybeans today is $14.79, one cent above my recommended sale on 100% of your old crop beans.
As with, corn when it traded $6.24 last week, I do not think this is the top in the beans, but maybe I am wrong, maybe a political Black Swan event will happen, maybe half the hogs in China will die of ASF, maybe all the chickens in the Southeast die of bird flu, maybe...
If I am right and old crop beans exceed $16.50 this spring or summer, you can buy put options whenever and where ever the top is and ride the market down, making the money with the put option you did not make on the way up with the beans in the bin or on a basis contract.
Why take a chance? Sell the beans, lock-in your floor at no cost.
Besides that, the return to storage in most localities does not cover the cost of storage.
Now, go make an informed marketing decision that is right for your operation.
I have been recommending pricing 2021 soybeans at $14.78 on the spot (nearby) month since the second week of July. Below is what i sent you Wednesday morning:
Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, January 25th, 2022:
March Soybeans Settled at $14.07¼.
Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 46 cents
19-month high $14.455 June 7, 2021
19-month low $8.95 August 24, 2020
19 Month Range is $5.50½
Tuesday’s closing price is:
38¼ cents below the 19-month high
$5.12¼ above the 19-month low
USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 100
USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 29, world: 93
Seasonal Trend is down until Feb 10th then into 2nd week in July
Fundamentals are Bullish
Technical Situation sideways short term, long term bullish
Price Above Breakeven? Yes
Conclusion: Sell when March trades to $14.78, one cent under the January contract high
This past week’s low was $13.63½, high was $14.29½
This week's Bullish Consensus:
49% bullish
15% bearish
31% neutral
5% no opinion
