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Soybean Target Price Hit 01/28/2022

The high on March soybeans today is $14.79, one cent above my recommended sale on 100% of your old crop beans.

As with, corn when it traded $6.24 last week, I do not think this is the top in the beans, but maybe I am wrong, maybe a political Black Swan event will happen, maybe half the hogs in China will die of ASF, maybe all the chickens in the Southeast die of bird flu, maybe...

If I am right and old crop beans exceed $16.50 this spring or summer, you can buy put options whenever and where ever the top is and ride the market down, making the money with the put option you did not make on the way up with the beans in the bin or on a basis contract.

Why take a chance? Sell the beans, lock-in your floor at no cost.

Besides that, the return to storage in most localities does not cover the cost of storage.

Now, go make an informed marketing decision that is right for your operation.

I have been recommending pricing 2021 soybeans at $14.78 on the spot (nearby) month since the second week of July. Below is what i sent you Wednesday morning:

Soybean Situation After the Close Tuesday, January 25th, 2022:

March Soybeans Settled at $14.07¼.

Price Change Tuesday to Tuesday: up 46 cents

19-month high $14.455 June 7, 2021

19-month low $8.95 August 24, 2020

19 Month Range is $5.50½

Tuesday’s closing price is:

38¼ cents below the 19-month high

$5.12¼ above the 19-month low

USDA's 2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 21, world: 100

USDA's 2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 29, world: 93

Seasonal Trend is down until Feb 10th then into 2nd week in July

Fundamentals are Bullish

Technical Situation sideways short term, long term bullish

Price Above Breakeven? Yes

Conclusion: Sell when March trades to $14.78, one cent under the January contract high

This past week’s low was $13.63½, high was $14.29½

This week's Bullish Consensus:

49% bullish

15% bearish

31% neutral

5% no opinion


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