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Market Recommendation Change 03/06/2022

Sell 2022 and 2023 Hard Red Winter Wheat


July KC Hard Red Winter Wheat settled Friday at $11.74½

Price Change Tuesday to Friday: up $1.83¾

19-month high: $12.08 March 4, 2022

19-month low $5.03¼ August 24th, 2020

19-month range is $7.04¾


Friday’s closing price is:

33½ cents below the 19-month high

$6.71¼ above the 19-month low

2020 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 146, world: 135

2021 crop carryout in terms of days’ use: US: 122, world: 129


Seasonal Trend down; note how it accelerates 2nd week of March

Fundamentals bullish if it does not rain in USA & Black Sea War

continues for three months, neither of which is likely

Technical Situation is bearish; see double top chart below

Price Above Breakeven? Yes.

Conclusion: Sell 2022 HTA July at the market on the opening

and place order to sell 2023 HTA July wheat at $8.35


Last week’s low was $9.83¾; the high was $12.08



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