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Highlights, Export Inspections, Markets & Rain Days Update 6/28/22


Shanghai and Beijing have begun lifting COVID restrictions. The market thinks that will improve demand for US corn and beans.

AgRural raised their Brazilian corn production 1.5 million mt to 113.8 million. Of the total, the second corn crop is down slightly.

Yesterday, the corn basis at the Gulf was steady for June and down 1 cent for July. The Gulf bean basis was steady June through August.

Ukraine seeded 4.6 million hectares of corn this spring. That was 900,000 less than last year, but 1.1 million more hectares than the market expected. It has been very dry this spring, but 1 to 2 inches of rain fell over the weekend in the north and central areas, but those areas need more water soon and the south is really hurting for water.

Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest corn exporter even though, in a normal year, they grow one-tenth as much corn as the USA.


The US Treasury has an auction every week to borrow money from investors. Treasury bills (3, 6 and 12 month maturities), Treasury notes (2 to 5 year maturities) and Treasury bonds (10 and 20 year maturities) are sold. Yesterday’s Treasury auction was the 11th consecutive week the average interest rate was higher than the previous week.

US shale oil producers are returning to existing wells to send a high-pressure blast to lift crude output for a fraction of the cost of a new well.

A total of 80 vessels remain blocked in Ukrainian ports, probably 25 to 35% are loaded with grain.

Josh Linville is StoneX’s fertilizer guy. He reported yesterday afternoon:

July Tampa NH3 value down another $40 a ton. NOLA urea barge prices continue to drift lower after last week's rally, but still $100 higher than the recent low. It is a long time until next spring.

We have spent a lot of time in the recent 8 hours analyzing weather forecasts and it is not clear. What appears to be most likely is the middle of July is going to be very hot in the Corn Belt with not much rain. Between now and then is predicted to be cool and wet, hot and wet, hot and moderately dry. Bottomline, this weather will determine when you need to sell corn, possibly beans and buy puts on corn.

The ENSO chart was updated today and for the fourth month, it continues to show rising water temperature which normally means above normal rainfall and cooler temperatures. That is exactly what the Corn Belt got in April and May, but not any more. There are at least three other weather anomalies negating most of the ENSO short term El Nino effect and making the forecast very difficult. To learn all about ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) effect, go to:


Export Inspections Tracker


Market Data

This morning:

Crude oil is at $110.58, up $1.01

The dollar index is at 104.00, up 0.06

July palm oil is at 5,076 MYR, up 27. The contract high was made April, 29th at 7,229 MYR. Palm oil owns 36% and soybean oil owns 28% world market share.

December cotton is at $95.23, up $1.18 per cw. The contract high was made May, 17th at $133.79 per cwt. Cotton competes with soybeans and corn for acres.

July natural gas is at $6.449, down 0.052. The contract high was made June, 8th at $9.664. Natural gas is the primary cost to manufacture nitrogen fertilizer.

July ULSD is at $4.2949 per gallon, up 0.0647. The contract high was made June, 17th at $4.6444. ULSD stands for Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.


Rain Days Update

The Western Corn Belt has 1 less rain days in the 10 day forecast than yesterday and the Eastern Corn Belt has 1 more rain daysthan yesterday.

The 6 to 10 day forecast updated every day at:

Explanation of Rain Days

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