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Grain Production Estimates, Export Sales, Put Options, Markets & Rain Days Update 5/20/22

Highlights


June grain options expire today.


China says they have found a gene which will improve wheat’s drought tolerance and nitrogen efficiency, thus improving yield greatly, especially on marginal quality soil. There is a lot of marginal quality soil in the world.


The Winter Wheat Tour wrapped up yesterday with the yield average estimated at 39.7 bpa vs. the five-year average of 47.4 bpa. Total production for Kansas is estimated at 261 million bushels vs. 271 million by the USDA.


When the United Nations General Secretary told Russia’s Putin he wanted to negotiate the release of Ukrainian grain into the world marketplace in exchange for lifting some sanctions on Russia, Putin responded the discussions Russia is willing to have must include all topics involving the relationship between Ukraine and Russia.


The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered their world corn production from 1.197 billion mt to 1.184 billion mt. The USDA is at 1.181 billion mt. IGC lowered global wheat production estimate 11 million mt to 769 million mt. That is a lot of less wheat, but the bulls were not impressed. USDA is at 774.83 million mt tons.


India’s farm ministry lowered their wheat production estimate to 106.41 from 111.32 million mt.


Today, India’s customs authority permitted four vessels to resume loading the balance of their wheat cargoes after a temporary pause of the loading process due to confusion about the export ban. These four vessels will take a total of 255,000 mt of Indian wheat to Brazil, Bangladesh, Oman and Indonesia.

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