Why the corn futures price is likely to peak the first half of May
The war in Ukraine is old news. The big up-move caused by the start of war was 67 days ago.
Any major news likely to come from that conflict will be bearish; a truce or end of the war.
The high on corn last year was May 7th.
Corn Belt weather had corn planting progress 8% behind normal a week ago; it will be 12% or more behind normal on Monday’s crop progress report which will support prices through next week as long as cold weather is in the forecast. And then the weather will change for the better.
The bullish March 31st Intended Plantings Report is old news. The market has begun to realize that corn acres for 2022 are increasing. History clearly shows every year that the Intentions Report has a big surprise, the market always balances acreages back the other way.
The closer we get to the June 30th Actual Planted Acreage Report, the more discussion and estimates there will be about a couple million more corn acres than intended in March.
The new crop prices have never been close to this high before the crop is in the ground. A huge number of marginal quality acres will get planted this spring because it does not take much yield to make money with $7 corn and $15 beans locked-in before planting.